Are you a successful intraday trader?

[mp6140]

Good. If you can call market direction..THAT IS THE MARKET KNOWLEDGE REQUIRED. Just use S+R for low risk entries.

=======================================================
like most things in life, there are those who agree and those who dont, but ive gotten more than a small number of newbs on this site to suddenly start making money by "watching" what price action does when faced with the LRC, demark trendlines, or even normal trendlines.

calling the market is kinda simple in that the "masters of the universe" will be moving the price IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION to where it will really go ----- since banks and brokers pretty much already KNOW what the news release will be (they have VERY large research depts, not to forget a "possible" mole somewhere good !) and once they KNOW then the news is already "priced in" Now, priced in means different things to different people, but to those WAY UP on top of the totem pole, it means taking the price to the H4 top resistance (or dropping it to H4 support) so the pros now have THE MOST ROOM TO MOVE THEIR PRICES !

if the news is going to be bad, they RUN UP the price to enable the most effective SHORTs available, and the opposite for good news --- theres more too it than that, how they move the "dumb money" around by their collective noses, but thats the "quick" version.

By watching what news is coming up, and watching price action from 2 days to 5 mins before the announcement, one KNOWS where the price is going --- have you ever watched BAD NEWS suddenly spike the price up, or even move it up more slowly --- THE REASON is the "smart money" didnt get the price high enough for their liking and now move it fully UP, so they can now short like Crazy !

thats how one "feels" and reads the marketplace, while the channels simply show how they move in a very visual manner !

then of course there are the zigzags, which correctly identify "waves" and offer grand places to take your fib measurements from !

takes a bit of time, but with experience and your head screwed on in the direction of learning whats happening, its far from impossible for normal humans to follow the action and actually be ahead of it !

now s+r for proper entries and exits --- MUST be an echo in here !

enjoy and trade well

mp

 

[teezeike]

I can't see whats emotional about floor pivots, but anyway thats another story.

What is so unemotional about magic pivot numbers. How does one interprete in S&P 1250, 1400..Levels. Why must price actions stall and sometimes reverse at or near these levels. That is practical emotion in play. Just like a loaf of bread. If it gets to certain price X I do not buy. But if it crosses that price..I rush to buy again !

Quite frankly, I find these attempts to reduce the behavior of financial markets to a paradigm of emotion to be worse than useless. The proponent can then "justify" just about any assertion by appealing to the great god of emotion. It's like any other sort of fundamentalism and crudely simplifies the real substance of the matter out of existance.

In all cases human actions are driven by fear and greed..the two big components of emotion

For a case study, let us look at the decline in the equities markets beginning in the last two months of 2007. Did investors suddenly become all emotional about stock valuations ? Who can say really, except those who claim to have a special link into the psychology of other market participants. What we do know with some certainty is that there were some serious problems in the credit markets and the quite serious propspect of the whole system of credit seizing up. Suppose I am a fairly astute investor with a low risk tolerance, was it emotion (with implied irrationality) or a rational assessment of risk that lead me to sell my stocks ?

During the selloff due to fear of meltdown..those stock sold were bought by other investors..perhaps cheaper! Fear and Greed in play

Which leads to the question of whether one better employs ones time cogitating on the psychology of the market or getting on with technical and fundamental analysis of what the hell is going on. And that means automation to various degrees upto and including fully automated systems. Otherwise you would still be drawing your candles (or OHLC bars) on a sheet of graph paper with pencil and erasor.

Without intuitive knowledge of the market ..little progess could be achieved by interpolation.

I can't see whats emotional about floor pivots, but anyway thats another story.

What is so unemotional about magic pivot numbers. How does one interprete in S&P 1250, 1400..Levels. Why must price actions stall and sometimes reverse at or near these levels. That is practical emotion in play. Just like a loaf of bread. If it gets to certain price X I do not buy. But if it crosses that price..I rush to buy again !

Quite frankly, I find these attempts to reduce the behavior of financial markets to a paradigm of emotion to be worse than useless. The proponent can then "justify" just about any assertion by appealing to the great god of emotion. It's like any other sort of fundamentalism and crudely simplifies the real substance of the matter out of existance.

In all cases human actions are driven by fear and greed..the two big components of emotion

For a case study, let us look at the decline in the equities markets beginning in the last two months of 2007. Did investors suddenly become all emotional about stock valuations ? Who can say really, except those who claim to have a special link into the psychology of other market participants. What we do know with some certainty is that there were some serious problems in the credit markets and the quite serious propspect of the whole system of credit seizing up. Suppose I am a fairly astute investor with a low risk tolerance, was it emotion (with implied irrationality) or a rational assessment of risk that lead me to sell my stocks ?

During the selloff due to fear of meltdown..those stock sold were bought by other investors..perhaps cheaper! Fear and Greed in playWhich leads to the question of whether one better employs ones time cogitating on the psychology of the market or getting on with technical and fundamental analysis of what the hell is going on. And that means automation to various degrees upto and including fully automated systems. Otherwise you would still be drawing your candles (or OHLC bars) on a sheet of graph paper with pencil and erasor.

Without intuitive knowledge of the market ..little progess could be achieved by interpolation.

 

[dick_dastardly]

not to forget, if one comes up with a successful EA on MT4, the russians will come up with how to nullify it, since MT4 reports "home" like the good russian spy it is !

hmmm, now this little remark caught my eye.

I've always suspected that some of these programable charting/trading platforms and also stratergy testing sites were just a covert way of harvesting traders systems and their parameters.

I just put it down to the way my cynical and suspicious mind works .






Sorry if I'm off topic chaps, just thinking out loud that's all.


dd

 

[mp6140]

I can't see whats emotional about floor pivots, but anyway thats another story.

cant argue that one !

Quite frankly, I find these attempts to reduce the behavior of financial markets to a paradigm of emotion to be worse than useless. The proponent can then "justify" just about any assertion by appealing to the great god of emotion. It's like any other sort of fundamentalism and crudely simplifies the real substance of the matter out of existance.

emotion is expected with the "dumb" money, but exists very strongly with the "smart" money also --- if the hedge funds had STAYED OUT of the real estate market, and simply did what they always did, they sure wouldnt be in the trouble they are now. If the banks had simply remembered back to 1987 or so, they would have let the greed lie down and stayed out of sub prime, no income check mortgages !

and these are the "big" boys and girls --- the "smart" money ----- their greed and exhuberance led the dumb money right down the primrose path, and now they squeel like stuck pigs, looking for the government to bail them out !

For a case study, let us look at the decline in the equities markets beginning in the last two months of 2007. Did investors suddenly become all emotional about stock valuations ? Who can say really, except those who claim to have a special link into the psychology of other market participants. What we do know with some certainty is that there were some serious problems in the credit markets and the quite serious propspect of the whole system of credit seizing up. Suppose I am a fairly astute investor with a low risk tolerance, was it emotion (with implied irrationality) or a rational assessment of risk that lead me to sell my stocks ?

not a clue, but if you were an experienced investor, you would have held with the realization that todays market is a mass of corrupt manipulation of everything from gasoline to safety pins, with hog bellies probably right in the middle and in that situation, what goes down must come back up, just like the equities decline in 2000 !

Its truly a shame that we have a president who has profited (along with his "buddies") by allowing this crap to have continued !

Which leads to the question of whether one better employs ones time cogitating on the psychology of the market or getting on with technical and fundamental analysis of what the hell is going on. And that means automation to various degrees upto and including fully automated systems. Otherwise you would still be drawing your candles (or OHLC bars) on a sheet of graph paper with pencil and erasor.

personally, im pretty much a tech trader and while fundamentals are fine, my charts pretty much tell me whatever the current mood of the market is !

And BTW, an algorithm does not have to be executed on an electronic device. You could have an algorithm to bake a christmas cake. Algorithm != computer program or fragment thereof.

oh yeah, the old "bake a christmas cake" algorithm --- used it last year but there must have been a problem with its "finites" cause the computer never turned the over on !

Emotions infinite or have infinite number of inputs ? Don't know what that means, but one could make the observation that on all available evidence, the Universe is finite and therefore everything within it is also finite.

IS IT FINITE or not ??? lots of discussion on that one !

LOL

mp

 

[teezeike]

=======================================================
like most things in life, there are those who agree and those who dont, but ive gotten more than a small number of newbs on this site to suddenly start making money by "watching" what price action does when faced with the LRC, demark trendlines, or even normal trendlines.

calling the market is kinda simple in that the "masters of the universe" will be moving the price IN THE OPPOSITE DIRECTION to where it will really go ----- since banks and brokers pretty much already KNOW what the news release will be (they have VERY large research depts, not to forget a "possible" mole somewhere good !) and once they KNOW then the news is already "priced in" Now, priced in means different things to different people, but to those WAY UP on top of the totem pole, it means taking the price to the H4 top resistance (or dropping it to H4 support) so the pros now have THE MOST ROOM TO MOVE THEIR PRICES !

if the news is going to be bad, they RUN UP the price to enable the most effective SHORTs available, and the opposite for good news --- theres more too it than that, how they move the "dumb money" around by their collective noses, but thats the "quick" version.

By watching what news is coming up, and watching price action from 2 days to 5 mins before the announcement, one KNOWS where the price is going --- have you ever watched BAD NEWS suddenly spike the price up, or even move it up more slowly --- THE REASON is the "smart money" didnt get the price high enough for their liking and now move it fully UP, so they can now short like Crazy !

thats how one "feels" and reads the marketplace, while the channels simply show how they move in a very visual manner !

then of course there are the zigzags, which correctly identify "waves" and offer grand places to take your fib measurements from !

takes a bit of time, but with experience and your head screwed on in the direction of learning whats happening, its far from impossible for normal humans to follow the action and actually be ahead of it !

now s+r for proper entries and exits --- MUST be an echo in here !

enjoy and trade well

mp

Hi MP,

Market could rally on Bad news. After BSC bailout and sold for $2.00 market rallied..for example.

This above example tested market strenght.

SEE:
1. If market anticipates bad news and market is going up until announcement.
1a. If the announcement is bearish as anticipated and the market goes down...know that the underlying market is strong. Time to buy the dip.
1b. If the bearish announcement is muted by the market ...the market is VERY Strong and expect any trigger for a rally.
1c. If the expeceted bearish news turns bullish..WOW you could see a big rally.

So whatever the 'BIG BOYS' are going to do is already given away or priced in..you just wait for confirmation. Thats why it is good never to trade during the news.

Remember there a quite a lage number of "BIG BOYS'..so co-ordination could be difficult.

 

[mp6140]

hmmm, now this little remark caught my eye.

I've always suspected that some of these programable charting/trading platforms and also stratergy testing sites were just a covert way of harvesting traders systems and their parameters.

I just put it down to the way my cynical and suspicious mind works .

Sorry if I'm off topic chaps, just thinking out loud that's all.
dd

=================================================================
just about everything has more than ONE reason for being, imho !

and we know this one reports back, no matter what you do !

mp

 

[dcraig1]

And endlessly repeating a mantra of "intuitive knowledge of the market" yields absolutely nothing. Show me some substance and remove the "intuitive" bit - market knowledge is neither genetic nor absorbed by osmosis.

 

[mp6140]

Hi MP,

Market could rally on Bad news. After BSC bailout and sold for $2.00 market rallied..for example.

and THEN what happened ??

This above example tested market strenght.

SEE:
1. If market anticipates bad news and market is going up until announcement.
1a. If the announcement is bearish as anticipated and the market goes down...know that the underlying market is strong. Time to buy the dip.

of course, there are even ways of measuring WHERE to buy, but usually 2.5 days !

1b. If the bearish announcement is muted by the market ...the market is VERY Strong and expect any trigger for a rally.

or wait to see what happens tomorrow, which happens constantly !

1c. If the expeceted bearish news turns bullish..WOW you could see a big rally.

LOL -- no discussion !!

So whatever the 'BIG BOYS' are going to do is already given away or priced in..you just wait for confirmation. Thats why it is good never to trade during the news.

trading the news, while not what i do for the most part, is simply another part of my day and it doesnt take much to see whats happening !

Remember there a quite a lage number of "BIG BOYS'..so co-ordination could be difficult.

not at all, since they all pretty much know whats happening, they all move in concert, with or without the phone calls ! Ever watch a price come to a halt at lets say, the middle LRC point, but NOT at the resistance level 30 pips above ? Ever watch it just sit there till the phone calls are all finished between the banks ?

Dont believe it --- check out your nearest trading room (NOT a prop shop !)

enjoy and trade well

mp

 

[mp6140]

And endlessly repeating a mantra of "intuitive knowledge of the market" yields absolutely nothing. Show me some substance and remove the "intuitive" bit - market knowledge is neither genetic nor absorbed by osmosis.

===========================================

who yee be talking to ?

mp

 

[dcraig1]

===========================================

who yee be talking to ?

mp

post #82 and a comment directed at the author of post #82, I would suggest that it is very poor form to quote a post and then change the text without clearly indicating so.

 

[nine]

I can't see whats emotional about floor pivots, but anyway thats another story.

Quite frankly, I find these attempts to reduce the behavior of financial markets to a paradigm of emotion to be worse than useless. The proponent can then "justify" just about any assertion by appealing to the great god of emotion. It's like any other sort of fundamentalism and crudely simplifies the real substance of the matter out of existance.

For a case study, let us look at the decline in the equities markets beginning in the last two months of 2007. Did investors suddenly become all emotional about stock valuations ? Who can say really, except those who claim to have a special link into the psychology of other market participants. What we do know with some certainty is that there were some serious problems in the credit markets and the quite serious propspect of the whole system of credit seizing up. Suppose I am a fairly astute investor with a low risk tolerance, was it emotion (with implied irrationality) or a rational assessment of risk that lead me to sell my stocks ?

Which leads to the question of whether one better employs ones time cogitating on the psychology of the market or getting on with technical and fundamental analysis of what the hell is going on. And that means automation to various degrees upto and including fully automated systems. Otherwise you would still be drawing your candles (or OHLC bars) on a sheet of graph paper with pencil and erasor.

And BTW, an algorithm does not have to be executed on an electronic device. You could have an algorithm to bake a christmas cake. Algorithm != computer program or fragment thereof.

Emotions infinite or have infinite number of inputs ? Don't know what that means, but one could make the observation that on all available evidence, the Universe is finite and therefore everything within it is also finite.

I agree that changing the words in a quote is despicable behaviour but couldn't be bothered trying to figure out what words were changed (even moderators need a break).

I will disagree with you on this view although its a weak case disagreement not a strong case (ie, not "you're ****ing wrong you incompetent **** style disagreement).

Emotions drove the decline. But emotions resulted from what took place in perception land. And what took place in perception land was driven by your fundamentals. The emotional reaction that drove it was "uncertainty fear." The thing is that its not enough for the fundamentals to change. As you know sometimes bad things happen but the market doesn't react or just twitches before continuing onwards. In some way the whole picture has to change so that the bad thing can create a market reaction.

So I disagree that you can just analyse fundamentals. You need to look at both the fundamentals and the markets reaction to them - so its a combination of mood and event.

How does one analyse things: fundamentals, sentiment, technicals, some combination of these?



Which approach is better though? IMO the best approach is the one that works for the individual.

For me it's technical with risk/reward control because I believe that price movements, trends, overreaches etc reflect all of the rational and irrational inputs to the market + the combination of voting and stampeding behaviours that the "public" shows. So by cannily observing price, volume and historical points of contention one can extract the info needed to trade well. But for others something else might work far better.

Good trading all.

 

[mp6140]

post #82 and a comment directed at the author of post #82, I would suggest that it is very poor form to quote a post and then change the text without clearly indicating so.

====================================================
AGREED !

its even poorer form to start a discussion with my words posted just prior to his post on another thread --- so many echoes around here !

is "disregardization" a good enough word ??

mp

 

[dcraig1]

I agree that changing the words in a quote is despicable behaviour but couldn't be bothered trying to figure out what words were changed (even moderators need a break).

I will disagree with you on this view although its a weak case disagreement not a strong case (ie, not "you're ****ing wrong you incompetent **** style disagreement).

Emotions drove the decline. But emotions resulted from what took place in perception land. And what took place in perception land was driven by your fundamentals. The emotional reaction that drove it was "uncertainty fear." The thing is that its not enough for the fundamentals to change. As you know sometimes bad things happen but the market doesn't react or just twitches before continuing onwards. In some way the whole picture has to change so that the bad thing can create a market reaction.

So I disagree that you can just analyse fundamentals. You need to look at both the fundamentals and the markets reaction to them - so its a combination of mood and event.

How does one analyse things: fundamentals, sentiment, technicals, some combination of these?



Which approach is better though? IMO the best approach is the one that works for the individual.

For me it's technical with risk/reward control because I believe that price movements, trends, overreaches etc reflect all of the rational and irrational inputs to the market + the combination of voting and stampeding behaviours that the "public" shows. So by cannily observing price, volume and historical points of contention one can extract the info needed to trade well. But for others something else might work far better.

Good trading all.

I'm am not for a moment suggesting that sentiment is not important, but that does NOT equal "it's just fear and greed and emotions" fundamentalist (in the religious sense) mantra repeated over and over. The latter in fact is just the reverse side of the strong form of the efficient market hypothesis which assumes never ending rationality on the part of market participants and conveniently side steps the process of price discovery.

 

[mp6140]

I'm am not for a moment suggesting that sentiment is not important, but that does NOT equal "it's just fear and greed and emotions" fundamentalist (in the religious sense) mantra repeated over and over. The latter in fact is just the reverse side of the strong form of the efficient market hypothesis which assumes never ending rationality on the part of market participants and conveniently side steps the process of price discovery.

===============================================================

oh my --- "efficient market hypothesis" --- WHERE did that one come from, aside from some little childs dreams ?

the market is the most INEFFICIENT thing on earth (well, theres gotta be something MORE SO, but i dont know of it) most especially in the shorter term, but the long term sure aint no great shakes either !

the market THINKS its efficient, as the market THINKS the world revolves around it and even BELIEVES that its the Feds job to make things easier for them --- a little "self centered" I might say, but FAR from efficient as it chases hither and yon for MORE money. If it was so danged efficient, how could grown men and women, experienced in the ways of the market and economic history, have EVER gotten into the sub prime mess, especially when even their barbers could tell them something was going wrong ? One look at every one of Greenspan's "soft landings" (hes been around a long long time) and there was disaster --- heck, my kids knew there would be disaster and i truly believe my ferret knew it also !

its not as if this is new --- every couple years something pops on screen for a bit and howls break out in the land (while the SHORTS have a field day !) driving down the prices, creating fear and oftimes panic to the dumb money. But while all of this is going on, I and MANY others made a very creditable amount of money on the tech bubble bursting, and simply stayed short until the man who washes my car was telling me to buy --- at that point, my grandmother was buying so i went long, and held for a few years and lo and behold --- market sentiment was correct and a hell of a lot of money was made !

I do dislike philosophical discussions concerning what we all can see is an obvious necessary evil (well, i wonder always about the "necessary" part, because aside from loans and IPO's, the "market" just another form of betting on something, with manipulation extremely possible, but GREED the biggy word in its actions --- FEAR, for the most part, is something the dumb money faces, not the smart money because theres ALWAYS a way around whatever problems they got into !)

as an aside, most of the problems occurred when the DOW made record highs --- now of course this immediately says "danger", because you now have a good place to SHORT from, and if you can move the market enough, you can create yet more panic and "poor market sentiment" and increase your profits by many fold.

The market exists to make some rich --- originally it was the very rich who "bet", but with the democraticisation of the "computer", the markets opened to everyone, and now institutions could enjoy their greed AND taking it from the "little" guy (dumb money) ALSO, making even MORE profit available !

to me, its GREED and thats pretty much all there is unless someone can show me what advantages to the GNP it serves, aside from paychecks (which are more variable than the auto business used to be)

i DO wonder what this has to do with being a successful intraday trader, but then, what do i know ?

mp

 

[funkysuns]

windowsill and bear,

window --- first let me say that there are certain conditions that have to be met for this to work, of which working within the trend and not hitting the normal reversal times of day are very important. IF one is using a large portion of their equity, "theoretically" i have to agree with you but on intraday trades, what timeframe are we speaking about ---- is it not usually a lower timeframe, like the 5 minute ?

if indeed it is, the reversal is usually no more than 10 or 15 pips, which an account should be able to handle --- if it cant be handled, the trader has gone WAY past any thoughts of money management and will certainly blow the account in some other manner.

BUT, WHAT I ASK IS THAT YOU EXAMINE THE CONCEPT ---- "theory" to me is just theory, and usually does not stand up to the real world, and what i speak of is from examination of the forex markets for years, and hardly seeing it miss a beat.

There are "conditions" on this type of trade, but they are easily met before one even enters a trade, and what i do is so easily learned ---- i just do not give "them" the money, preferring to keep it for myself !

you old bear --- if that is the way you like to trade, giving back money on the normal intraday reversals, then i cannot help you in any way --- its obvious that i need to learn how to honey coat my ideas for you, so as to turn you away from hibernating your head in the sand and eating the honey that the brokers try to keep from you !

the really best times to see this in action is the present moves on GU --- in a downtrend, but moving up and down in its various timeframe channels --- if one were to play the 5 minute channel, and not want to take a few pips here and there while running like mad, one could simply go short, let the action play out up and down, and tprofit at the H1 bottom support area --- if using stops, you would have been out of there long ago.

enjoy and trade well

mp

Since you are trading from 8 years. I am sure you are doing it right.
Can you please show us in a simplied way how you trade?

Let's say you buy GBP/USD at 1.3010 and it starts going down so you flip(take a short position) at 1.2990

And then what? When do you close the trade?

Because no matter when you close the trade, it will still be in loss "overall"

 

[postman]

Since you are trading from 8 years. I am sure you are doing it right.
Can you please show us in a simplied way how you trade?

Let's say you buy GBP/USD at 1.3010 and it starts going down so you flip(take a short position) at 1.2990

And then what? When do you close the trade?

Because no matter when you close the trade, it will still be in loss "overall"

Ok this looks like it might come as a shock to you but if you bothered to read the previous post properly you will notice it was posted 12 years ago. Things may have changed since then ie the poster may have died of covid or any number of other reasons. Probably best if you participate in a more up to date thread.

 

[funkysuns]

Ok this looks like it might come as a shock to you but if you bothered to read the previous post properly you will notice it was posted 12 years ago. Things may have changed since then ie the poster may have died of covid or any number of other reasons. Probably best if you participate in a more up to date thread.

Sorry, didn't see the date.

It seems nobody posts here onT2W. A user posts the same strategy on Forex Factory (no SL and instead flipping his trades). Think he migrated to FF

Anybody has any idea about it?

 

[sugarlandFX]

There is no advantage with timeframes, just like indicators, price action and candlestick patterns.