Search results

  1. N

    PC build advice for linux beginner

    All you need to worry about is getting a network adapter that has no problems with ubuntu. KDE Neon with Plasma is just a vastly superior version of Windows that is easier to use than Windows 10. Windows 10 is just so ridiculously bad. Basically any modern PC hardware is blindingly fast when it...
  2. N

    Sports betting anyone

    I have a little model for NFL games this season but it doesn't give many signals over a season in a backtest. Being so it doesn't generates enough samples to really know if it has any kind of edge even though I can think of reasons it could. I am going to enjoy betting meaningless amounts with...
  3. N

    How do I calculate risk?

    Haha Treatise on Probability is so brutal. I have really never been able to get anywhere in it and I love Keynes mind from what I have been able to digest. Schumpeter is in the same group with Knight to me. Tough but not completely impenetrable. I just think there is something about men of...
  4. N

    How do I calculate risk?

    I highly recommend picking up the book Risk Uncertainty and Profit by Frank Knight. Book is almost a hundred years old now and far more depth than any modern trading related book on risk.
  5. N

    The Next US President

    I don't think the Democratic party is capable of selecting an opponent than can beat Trump. All you have to do is pick a centrist and you win a land slide without trying. Instead the party is hell bent on picking the most radical candidate it can, as if twitter is real life and is actually...
  6. N

    Desperately Searching for a Mentor

    In the words of Marcos Lopez de Prado most financial discoveries are false. Most strategies don't work but most retail traders because of all kinds of psychological bias believe their system must work. Even the Buddha is going to lose money if he was trading a losing strategy. You need to...
  7. N

    Should I stay or should I go?

    If you are competent at your job you should always take the higher salary from another company. You basically then get a free call option on the previous employer wanting you back at an even higher salary. In the wise words of Charlie Munger "the first $100k is a real bitch". Get to $100k...
  8. N

    Fear of missing out

    Fear of missing out just means you don't have enough years under your belt yet. I would have a hard time enumerating all the trades I have missed out on in my life now. Who cares though, there will be more than enough trades to take now and in the future.
  9. N

    Will Bitcoin continue to rise?

    Like QE, tether printing is not working as well the next time around. If you look at the current market cap we have had 1 billion added to tether just since May. It is not exactly tough to understand the motives to liquidate BTC about $11k if you have a large position. The higher it goes the...
  10. N

    Discretionary trading back in fashion

    Not sure how you come to this conclusion. 80% of the volume in the US and 70% of volume world wide is algorithmic. In general for anything: "Algorithms beat individuals about half the time and they match individuals about half time. There are very few examples of people outperforming...
  11. N

    GOLD

    I have had a GLD position on for a year and a half now waiting for these moves. IMO I don't think it is time to liquidate but I also don't see how you get in at these prices on a new position.
  12. N

    Bitcoin future?

    IMO blockchain is like "e-commerce" on January 1st 2000. Extremely overrated in the short term and extremely underrated in the long term. I will be interested when I read about how blockchain was a failure and is a word no one wants anything to do with. Right now everyone just puppets the same...
  13. N

    How good are you at trading - just be honest

    My first trade was right before Hurricane Katrina so it has been almost 14 years now. I feel like it has taken this long for me to not feel clueless. Long ago though I stopped viewing trading as some kind of contest with other people. I could not possibly care less what is in another man's...