Trading the SPX

Bez · Oct 21, 2006

Something for the Elliott Crew 🙂

Hmmm...ED on the SPX

Done the more pop bear count with the A-B- ED "C" Ziggy from the 10/10/02 lows of a Cycle wave B...

The Alt Could very be a 1 2 3, 4 ED 5 of a cycle wave 1.....

Either way looks like we'll have to wait until March-May next year until we get the big drop of a C (or W2)

:?:

Hook Shot · Oct 26, 2006

(1) Spx now up 7 days in a row............ we have also made 5 higher highs in a row
(2) When Spx is up mon-fri, the following monday is often down....so friday close becomes interesting..

As we stand it looks like we will breach the highest move above the previous weeks high that we've had this year... I think the previous highest was 23pts equating to ~1391.7. We hit 1389.5 today. 1400 does look like magnet though.

HS

Bez · Oct 27, 2006

OEX with its approx 66% of the SPX hit a major weekly harmonic price level..

With that kind of weighting the OEX acts like a lead weight on the SPX.

ammo · Oct 30, 2006

10 days

ammo said:
tommorrow is 10 business days from last time funds came in as big buyers at 9;30 a.m. cst and bought big,the fourth timethey did this in a row without selling ten days later,watch to see if they start to unwind at 9;30,

this 10 days hasn;t reversed in a while but today ,oct 30, is another ten day mark so watch for fund participation after 9:30 chicago time see if funds come in ,buy or sell,if its any momemtum it should be high volume day

ajaskey · Nov 10, 2006

SPX short term correction

Expecting another leg down into December. Short term sentiment has been moving towards bullish but that will turn with a day or two of down.

ajaskey · Dec 2, 2006

The SPX is correcting with chart on previous post. The VLE which is the unweighted market is still very bullish. It got ahead of itself at the end of the time cycle and came back down right on time. I suspect a week or two or three more of weakness a move up here would just get ahead of time again.

ammo · Dec 4, 2006

ajaskey said:
The SPX is correcting with chart on previous post. The VLE which is the unweighted market is still very bullish. It got ahead of itself at the end of the time cycle and came back down right on time. I suspect a week or two or three more of weakness a move up here would just get ahead of time again.

your last 2 posts were dead on as usual,thanks for your input...invaluable

ajaskey · Jan 13, 2007

Long term VLE is doing it right. SPX may underperform the COMPQ as the Naz seems to be the place to be.

ajaskey · Feb 1, 2007

Right on Price and Time

Hook Shot · Feb 6, 2007

Golden Nugget ?

Spx has made 5 straight higher highs (although Monday's was a marginal high)

EDIT: Spx did not close positive 5d in a row it was down Monday - sorry for earlier error :cheesy:

ajaskey · Feb 6, 2007

Hook Shot said:
Golden Nugget ?

Spx has made 5 straight higher highs (although Monday's was a marginal high)

EDIT: Spx did not close positive 5d in a row it was down Monday - sorry for earlier error :cheesy:

OEX put/call is over 3. Rarely gets this high. OEX option traders a supposed to know what they are doing. In the post couple years the SPX had popped after a high reading and then went down. Last time it was this high was at the end of April. Of course, maybe put sellers are just looking for a premium and with a chance to take a long position on a dip.

ammo · Feb 6, 2007

ajaskey said:
OEX put/call is over 3. Rarely gets this high. OEX option traders a supposed to know what they are doing. In the post couple years the SPX had popped after a high reading and then went down. Last time it was this high was at the end of April. Of course, maybe put sellers are just looking for a premium and with a chance to take a long position on a dip.

i left cboe in 1990 so i dont know what a size order is anymore,but firms like goldman sachs would come in at 2;30 and buy 5000 puts or calls and the next day it would usually go in thier favor its possible that that is what pushes it out of whack

Hook Shot · Feb 6, 2007

ajaskey said:
OEX put/call is over 3. Rarely gets this high. OEX option traders a supposed to know what they are doing. In the post couple years the SPX had popped after a high reading and then went down. Last time it was this high was at the end of April. Of course, maybe put sellers are just looking for a premium and with a chance to take a long position on a dip.

Well ajaskey ........we got that pop you were looking for (making 6 straight daily highs) - that was getting pretty stretched and perhaps predictably it sold off ....

I could be totally wrong but I would be VERY surprised to see another new high Wed ..... so things are getting interesting

Caveat : Of course market can do anything.... :cheesy:

ajaskey · Feb 7, 2007

OEX put/call at 2.69 again today.

ammo · Feb 7, 2007

ajaskey said:
OEX put/call at 2.69 again today.

does that ease the probability of a pop? this is not selling off and making marginal new hughs,not that anybody knows but your guess is more researched than mine you dont have to reply,tough question

ajaskey · Feb 7, 2007

ammo said:
does that ease the probability of a pop? this is not selling off and making marginal new hughs,not that anybody knows but your guess is more researched than mine you dont have to reply,tough question

I would expect a washout based on the OEX put/call activity. Either they are still the smartest option traders in the market or the hedge funds have picked up the trade and it could mean anything (or nothing).

Mr_Stochastyk · Feb 13, 2007

ajaskey said:
I would expect a washout based on the OEX put/call activity. Either they are still the smartest option traders in the market or the hedge funds have picked up the trade and it could mean anything (or nothing).

Personally I don't believe in OEX put activity as the driving force: in dollar value it does not represent much - 1-2 mill vs. billions for SPX options (there is currently more than 4 bill on the table in March contracts alone!)

Now as we are having a washout the question remains what a washout is: during the last 6 months it meant just two down days.. So time for a bounce or next down move below 1400? I'll be watching this carefully today..

good trades,
Andre

ammo · Feb 13, 2007

washout

Mr_Stochastyk said:
Personally I don't believe in OEX put activity as the driving force: in dollar value it does not represent much - 1-2 mill vs. billions for SPX options (there is currently more than 4 bill on the table in March contracts alone!)

Now as we are having a washout the question remains what a washout is: during the last 6 months it meant just two down days.. So time for a bounce or next down move below 1400? I'll be watching this carefully today..

good trades,
Andre

spx went from 1453 to 1431 since that post,the washout just took us from the resistance line to the support line, you are looking for a brakout from this channel we've been in,that is a break in the trend to the downside or a bear mrkt.. we hit the support line yesterday and are now bouncing off it....

Mr_Stochastyk · Feb 13, 2007

ammo said:
spx went from 1453 to 1431 since that post,the washout just took us from the resistance line to the support line, you are looking for a brakout from this channel we've been in,that is a break in the trend to the downside or a bear mrkt.. we hit the support line yesterday and are now bouncing off it....

As I said - 2 consecutive down days: that's the washout. This proves the strength of this market.

Good trades,
Andre

ajaskey · Feb 13, 2007

It will be interesting to see the levels of open interest after expiration on Friday. All these putz may go away...

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