Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

Better buy Google then.

Short in the face of the bull and he'll run off with your wallet...?

It takes a brave man to short the market Thanksgiving week; traditionally one of the most positive of the year, so good luck to the bears....!

10870ish potential resistance has been casually blown through, so now the objective seems to be the March ‘05 high at 10980ish…

As mentioned previously, the consolidation target is 11200 which could be the gateway to challenge the all time high at 11,722.98 (intra-day high 11,908.50)..pure speculation though..

But after such a rocket ship ride from the 10200 lows, some kind of consolidation must be due soon imho, which may give a clue to the next move….double top or onwards and upwards..?!

There is some speculation that the market is being manipulated by the PPT (plunge prevention team – a FED facility) to reach a high in January so that Mr Greenspan retires with the markets ‘cheering’.

Again. pure speculation and never likely to be proven.....

Just out of interest what sort of stop (if you are using one) have you got?

A wide one as always compared to you lot. This stops a little different, as I know where to exit. I don't mind seeing intra day moves above 10900 but don't want to see a close above 10900 if we do get that then I don't want to see a weekly close above 10940 and then if we see that I would exit if we were to see a daily close above 11,000 as that could then result in some absurd upside. As if it wasn't getting silly now.....

Well that’s the way it is...........an over reaction on the downside and even more on the upside......

Just to calm the traders, which are getting this fever of upside excitement. The markets travels down way faster then they do to travel up......

Boy its nearly been a year with this thread and boy have I seen the tones on this thread get overly bullish and bearish and then taken one step back to acknowledge that. Similar sort of happiness and complacency is present now in the markets.

scared that they will miss the boat.

The ones that miss the boat are the ones that do get on the boat but at the same time every else gets off the boat and normally start to move onto the other boat........so in effect they miss both boats...... Timing......crucial aspect of trading......

If we do get a good Christmas rally then I think it may be sustained into the early months of next year before we see any real damage. As its at the stage where the markets not looking for the cash of me and you............they want fresh raw cash to enter the markets.......the press have the headlines now the public need to make the move they will regret and then it'll spiral down.....When it reaches the headlines the expiry date is usually upon us.......

Otherwise the troubles could well start right away.....

Hi Chaps
Are we long or short in here ??

Hi Chaps
Are we long or short in here ??

Click to expand...

Its a real market in here so both.......

theres the retest..

so down from now..

fc

Aha covering longs then I can live with that

theres the retest..

so down from now..

fc

Click to expand...

Ah, so you're going to make a donation to the Xmas 'short squeeze' fund as well FC....?!

Very generous.......

Yeh why not sounds like a worth while cause

"Always better to give than receive"

Of course if the market would rather give to the DC Christmas beer fund that would be fine also

lol TS, i'll see what i can do..

im using fixed odds at the mo anyway..

got £120 on the table, potential payout of circa £700 if today closes down.. might well hedge that if we get below 10,900 again...

this is your kinda region for shorting now DC

was this a monthly target?

also seems a an 70pt move off the low...

Im in at 28 with a tight rein on this one

very appropriate, santa..

If only people would stop munching McDonalds. It's ruining some folks day.

Monthly is slightly higher but you wouldnt loose sleep over the difference

another trendline broken to the south side...

trendline from early low, to the low circa 17.30..

down still seems the favoured option..

double top at 10933

double top at 10933

Click to expand...

No

But a extremely possible top at 10941.

The March high weekly candle close was 10940.5 and it seems like it will stall at this level.....

This current rally seems to defy all logic and economic facts apart from the seasonal tradition of Christmas rallies.

The September trade deficit hit a new record of $66bn and it will continue to increase due to oil prices even if they remain in the $55 - $60 range (which they won't) since they have moved up from $40 at the begining of the year. The US needs to maintain bond sales to finance this deficit and they succeeded in getting $100bn in September which comfortably covers this requirement. HOWEVER little of this came from banks - most of it came from PI's and other institutions attracted by rising US interest rates. These sources of funds are volatile and they can reverse as fast as they came. Overseas bank share of these funds has declined from 30% to 5% over the past 12 months. This deficit is unsustainable and it will be further enhanced by the rsing domestic budget deficit too.

The housing bubble is ready to burst with sustained interest rate rises. Consumer spending is about to falter for the same reason (remember this is 72% of GDP) and GM is about to go into Chapter 11 with a debt mountain in excess of $400bn and this will create a major banking crisis.

Rome (Washington) is burning and Nero (Dubya) is playing his flute and swanning around Asia while the crisis deepens like a rising Tsunami. When this wave breaks, better watch out below !

You learn rather rapidly in this game, markets are rarely rational. Sentiment is everything, and it can turn on a sixpence. If you have patience and discipline there are always opportunities.