roguetrader
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Got our retest of the highs on the Nasdaq SPX and INDU still lagging
roguetrader
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Last 30 mins, didn't get my highs retest on SPX but a fair run all the same, still might do it but I don't hold beyond 3:30.
INDU still the laggard
NYSE volume still not confirming the move higher, I would attribute todays gains to a lack of sellers rather than an abundance of buyers on the DOW and SPX
Nasdaq maybe a different story, strong surge in volume still coming in, should be a good 10-15% above yesterday which was about 25% ahead of the day before.
A warning for next week, certainly a shot across the bows. Will wait to see how the week closes before getting too carried away.
INDU still the laggard
NYSE volume still not confirming the move higher, I would attribute todays gains to a lack of sellers rather than an abundance of buyers on the DOW and SPX
Nasdaq maybe a different story, strong surge in volume still coming in, should be a good 10-15% above yesterday which was about 25% ahead of the day before.
A warning for next week, certainly a shot across the bows. Will wait to see how the week closes before getting too carried away.
Racer
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Racer
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Before you read it though.. which comment is from which year...May 2000 or May 2005?
Reports from the Federal Reserve Districts indicate that solid economic growth continued in April and May, but that signs of some slowing from the rapid pace earlier in the year are also present. In Minneapolis, "economic activity remains hot," and in Chicago and Richmond, growth is said to be strong. Most of the other District reports characterize growth as moderate or steady. All but Minneapolis said scattered signs of cooling are in evidence or the pace of growth is slowing. Indications of worsening price inflation, while not widespread, are reported by several Districts.
Reports from all twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate that business activity continued to expand from mid-April through May. Most Districts--including New York, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, Minnesota, Kansas City, and San Francisco--characterized the pace of expansion as moderate, solid, or well-sustained. However, Philadelphia noted that the pace of growth had eased in May while Boston and Cleveland observed some unevenness across sectors.
Reports from the Federal Reserve Districts indicate that solid economic growth continued in April and May, but that signs of some slowing from the rapid pace earlier in the year are also present. In Minneapolis, "economic activity remains hot," and in Chicago and Richmond, growth is said to be strong. Most of the other District reports characterize growth as moderate or steady. All but Minneapolis said scattered signs of cooling are in evidence or the pace of growth is slowing. Indications of worsening price inflation, while not widespread, are reported by several Districts.
Reports from all twelve Federal Reserve Districts indicate that business activity continued to expand from mid-April through May. Most Districts--including New York, Richmond, Atlanta, Chicago, Minnesota, Kansas City, and San Francisco--characterized the pace of expansion as moderate, solid, or well-sustained. However, Philadelphia noted that the pace of growth had eased in May while Boston and Cleveland observed some unevenness across sectors.
JillyB
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Just posting a chart of the Dow 4 hour from 28th April to date. The chart is off CMC, so there days are taken from midnight to midnight. However I think it shows the general upward trend and the narrow band that the Dow has started trading in since the 9th June. ( I have attached a close up of this as well).
It seems that despite all the bad results, oil prices etc, that the Dow is making its way steadily towards 10600. No matter what the bears throw at it, the bulls push back each time. The last few days have seen higher highs and higher lows, but today will be the real telling point I think.
Either way when it does break this current pattern, I think we shall have very strong movement - letting off steam from the pressure cooker off the last few weeks. Over the last few days (this week) 10500 seems to have established itself as a level of support, but I'm not sure how strong this will be.
It seems that despite all the bad results, oil prices etc, that the Dow is making its way steadily towards 10600. No matter what the bears throw at it, the bulls push back each time. The last few days have seen higher highs and higher lows, but today will be the real telling point I think.
Either way when it does break this current pattern, I think we shall have very strong movement - letting off steam from the pressure cooker off the last few weeks. Over the last few days (this week) 10500 seems to have established itself as a level of support, but I'm not sure how strong this will be.
peterpr
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The shorts just got BADLY burned on the FTSE100 June LIFFE futures contract. It spiked up to 5137 before the contract closed for trading at 10:30. That's a good example of what can happen at contract expiry - nearly 50 points higher than the index high up to that point (pro-rata that's over 100 points on the DOW!). The contract closed for trading at 5131. OK there was panic - but that tells me there's more upside to come today on the Footsie because open interest delivery will be at today's index closing price. Of course it could just have been a load of novices panicking because volume was not exceptional during the spike. In any event those who covered during that spike will be kicking themselves if the index closes below 5130 today.JillyB said:Futures expiry on the Dow seems to have had a bullish effect with an 11 point rise on CMC.
I see it has had the same effect on the FTSE.
Did anyone else expect this rise?
All great fun isn't it ? - You won't catch me anywhere near the YM June contract today, that's for sure.
FetteredChinos
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futures are up as banks are ramping it to make their options expire more in the money. This often happens to some degree. It probably got exacerbated as people were getting stopped on the short side. I still think that crude at $57+ will have a huge effect. It will be ignored until it hits an unknown level where all hell will break lose in my opinion. That could be 58, 59 or even 60. The fact is that it will happen. On todays action we will go higher on the dow at the open but will those gains last the day.?
Don't understand your assertion that the LIFFE futures price spiked up to 5131. The FTSE moved up from circa 5060 to circa 5080 between 10.10 -10.30 this morning. Even adding the unmatched buy and sell orders into the equation I cannot see how this could have pushed up the strike price by more than 1% on the average index value.peterpr said:
Where did you get this figure from ?
peterpr
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Further to post 4889 for those interested.
Thinking about what happened on the LX contract an hour ago. It does look as thougn novices got burned - either that or the short covering was the result of a flood of fail-safe time triggered 'at market' orders running up to the contract's trading close. Any cool-headed trader looking at the index and noteing that it was already showing a .75% rise on the day would have calculated that the total rise for the day would have to be over 1.7% for them to out-of-the-money so to speak by holding onto any existing short position. If they had done so they would have confined any covering order to whatever they calculated a likely maximum close to be - 90 points is a bit over the top though ! - haven't had a run up on footsie like that for years.
Still, a good example of the shenanagins that go on in the run up to futures and options expiry - so beware !
Thinking about it further, mods may want to move this and post 4889 to a new thread since it is an interesting and educational topic which other may want to add to. I'll post some charts if anyone is interested??
Thinking about what happened on the LX contract an hour ago. It does look as thougn novices got burned - either that or the short covering was the result of a flood of fail-safe time triggered 'at market' orders running up to the contract's trading close. Any cool-headed trader looking at the index and noteing that it was already showing a .75% rise on the day would have calculated that the total rise for the day would have to be over 1.7% for them to out-of-the-money so to speak by holding onto any existing short position. If they had done so they would have confined any covering order to whatever they calculated a likely maximum close to be - 90 points is a bit over the top though ! - haven't had a run up on footsie like that for years.
Still, a good example of the shenanagins that go on in the run up to futures and options expiry - so beware !
Thinking about it further, mods may want to move this and post 4889 to a new thread since it is an interesting and educational topic which other may want to add to. I'll post some charts if anyone is interested??
roguetrader
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A confirmation of the close above 1209, in the SPX brings the highs into play as full retrace is probable. Now there's a scary thought, how many are gonna be bullish now?. Nasdaq has major resistance at 2100 a breach of that could have stampede effect. All getting way too bullish for my liking. As the saying goes, "the trend is your friend, but watch out for the bend at the end."
