Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

Big week for economic numbers next week

May 31 10:00 AM Chicago PMI May
May 31 10:00 AM Consumer Confidence
Jun 1 12:00 AM Auto Sales May
Jun 1 12:00 AM Truck Sales May
Jun 1 10:00 AM Construction Spending Apr
Jun 1 10:00 AM ISM Index May
Jun 2 8:30 AM Initial Claims 05/28
Jun 2 8:30 AM Productivity-Rev. Q1
Jun 2 10:00 AM Factory Orders Apr
Jun 3 8:30 AM Average Workweek May
Jun 3 8:30 AM Hourly Earnings May
Jun 3 8:30 AM Nonfarm Payrolls May
Jun 3 8:30 AM Unemployment Rate May
Jun 3 10:00 AM ISM Services

Racer said:

Oil still going up

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Good to see you back Racer
Yes that surprises me, I realize the crude inventories missed estimates but that was explained yesterday by the fact that refineries are now operating at max capacity, and the "missing" crude was said to be refined and showed up in the distialte inventories which I believe beat estimates, thought once that had been understood the price would have settled again. According to oil analysts US is still importing at recoed pace.

Looks like another retest of 10550 is underway.

That'll be for Friday and yes we're so close to 10550 and Monday's highs but we shouldn't take the test for granted....We could see 10500 tested again....

It'll be interesting as I believe we're coming to the end of this up run.....

Next week could be nice for the downside......Turning point next week....

You can see the VIX here http://stockcharts.com/def/servlet/SC.web?c=$VIX,uu[m,a]daclyymy[pb50!b200!f][vc60][iut]

Does anyone know if the VIX covers all the main indexes or just the S&P 500. if so is there a similar
one that covers the Dow

Ok, well that was exciting
Since the DOW hasn't really done anything worth talking about and the thread is entitled "Dow & others" I thought I'd look at one of the others, the COMPQ.
The COMPQ or Nadaq Comp bottomed on 29th April with an impressive reversal day, after setting new 7 month lows at 1889 it reversed to form a bullish hammer, closing at the highs of 1921, a 31 point reversal. Since those lows, 19 trading days later the Nas has tacked on 182 points or approx 9.6%. Had the Dow kept pace with that we would be at 11038 today. Of course it is only fair to point out that since the highs of 2000 the Dow has retraced more than 78% of its losses while the Nas barely managed to top 25% of its losses. Anyway, enough trivia.

Looking at the daily chart, the Nas has had a great run from the lows and currently sits well above its major MA's. and closed today just shy of the 61.8% retrace from the Jan highs to the Apr lows. The Nas broke below this level on Jan 20th. Spent most of Feb trying to get back above it and gave it one last go in early March. The next 35 points will be critical for the Nas, a breach of 2107 would put it above this resistance area. Looking at the chart I find it hard to believe that is possible without some sort of correction. Where am I going with this? Well there are lots of people calling for a fall in the Dow, and to be honest I can't see much of a good reason not to agree with them, except for the strength in the Nas.

Now how to please us all, if the correction from these levels were to occur, a reasonable correction target for the Nas would be 38.2% fib from current levels, that would be approximately 70 points, equating to at least 350 Dow points, a 50% correction would be approx 90 points, equivalent to 450+ Dow points, bringing the Dow into 10,000 territory.

All pure speculation of course but some food for thought.

Matt321 said:

Does anyone know if the VIX covers all the main indexes or just the S&P 500. if so is there a similar
one that covers the Dow

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Matt, the VIX measures near term volatility as related to S&P500 stock index option prices, I am not familiar with any other guage of this type.

Does anyone here trade the Dax? New highs for the year today!

Does anyone know if the VIX covers all the main indexes or just the S&P 500. if so is there a similar

Click to expand...

RT acutally there is......you want to see it

$VXN is the tick symbol and it is for the NASDAQ

This is even worse.

The Nasdaqs doing great and fantastic.......but the Sell signal given is massive!!!!

Glad the question above was asked as I new we had a measure for the Nasdaq but hadn't looked at it recently.....

The one for the Dow is $VXD, this one is not at the lows yet....

Have a look at these two articles, more information is provided.....

http://stockcharts.com/education/IndicatorAnalysis/marketindicators1.html#VIX

http://biz.yahoo.com/opt/050505/dc9e9e9358ea3fc6c6e5718ca3035634.html?.v=1

user said:

RT acutally there is......you want to see it

$VXN is the tick symbol and it is for the NASDAQ

This is even worse.

The Nasdaqs doing great and fantastic.......but the Sell signal given is massive!!!!

Glad the question above was asked as I new we had a measure for the Nasdaq but hadn't looked at it recently.....

The one for the Dow is $VXD, this one is not at the lows yet....

Have a look at these two articles, more information is provided.....

http://stockcharts.com/education/IndicatorAnalysis/marketindicators1.html#VIX

http://biz.yahoo.com/opt/050505/dc9e9e9358ea3fc6c6e5718ca3035634.html?.v=1

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Thanx User, something more for the armoury.

Hi! I am a newbie trader and have been reading this post for the last 2 weeks. I must firstly thank User . User I have made my own analysis using the Advanced get and a couple of other indicators...I then read the posts on here to have a "second opinion" on my thoughts. User's comments do go a long way...they really are constructive and a good guidance, so thank you. Of course, trades i place are at my own discretion and i only hold my own indicators reponsible for the profits (small loss) generated thus far!
Actually, i took a large blow of £600 loss one day but then, with confidence back in the indicators etc, I have recouped the £600 and am up a further £200....until today!

I am spreadbetting and find the spreads a little too wide at times. I got it wrong basically today....i was short on the Dow (trading on end of day data/analysis) and then hedged with july contract. My loss is now managed but need a move to either side to break even....

So, thanks to User, kriseau RT Racer Joules,Matt and all other "constructive" traders....your help is appreciated in confirming analysis.........So, where is the Dow heading tomorrow??!!!!;-)

Does anyone here trade the Dax? New highs for the year today!

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I think I've only traded it a few times BUT I will be trading it on Friday......

Your all going to laugh but VDAX is the volatility measure for the DAX

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^VDAX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=c&c=

It works perfectly!

SELL

These posts are really helping me......The VDAX worked in Feb, March and April and no doubt it'll work starting Friday as we're at the same low levels again.....

Should be 100 points downside in this one........

Summer 2000, Summer 1987, wonder how they compare?

bakula thanks for the praise....

What makes this thread is really the informative contribution of all....

The info on here is not always correct but at times its good to get away from your own thinking/analysis and its nice to see other views....

So keep up with the questions, queries, analysis, etc

Its great and this week has been brilliant. Hopefully last weeks nonsense has faded away....

Thanks moderator....

The info on here is not always correct but at times its good to get away from your own thinking/analysis and its nice to see other views....

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No one is right all the time... they pay analysts to get things wrong 50%+ ot the time so maybe we can do a little better?

Spitzer Files Suit Against AIG, Greenberg
Thursday May 26, 11:17 pm ET

http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/050526/aig_probe.html?.v=12

New York Attorney General Eliot Spitzer on Thursday filed a civil suit against American International Group Inc., accusing the nation's largest insurance company and two former top executives of using "deception and fraud" to boost the company's stock price.

"The irony of this case is that AIG was a well-run and profitable company that didn't need to cheat," Spitzer said. "And yet, the former top management routinely and persistently resorted to deception and fraud in an apparent effort to improve the company's financial results."

"Greenberg and Smith ... both held hundreds of thousands of shares of AIG stock. For example, the value of Greenberg's holdings increased or decreased approximately $65 million for every dollar AIG stock moved," the civil suit claimed.

Meanwhile, a grand jury is probing potentially criminal conduct by individuals at AIG, including former top management, according to sources quoted in The New York Times and The Wall Street Journal.

Spitzer and his staff have refused to confirm or deny that a grand jury is dealing with the case.

Effkay said:

Does anyone here trade the Dax? New highs for the year today!

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Hi Effkay,

I trade the DAX.

Take a look at the chart I originally attached to my post #3879 on 12th or 13th May for some Elliott Wave Analysis that seems to have been fairly accurate. (I've attached it to this post as well to save you having to find the other one). The orange rectangle in the top right is the projected minimum area for the top of wave 5.

The second chart is the position at EOD yesterday. You can see we're not far short of the orange area.

Regards,

Ivor

user said:

I think I've only traded it a few times BUT I will be trading it on Friday......

Your all going to laugh but VDAX is the volatility measure for the DAX

http://finance.yahoo.com/q/bc?s=^VDAX&t=6m&l=on&z=m&q=c&c=

It works perfectly!

SELL

These posts are really helping me......The VDAX worked in Feb, March and April and no doubt it'll work starting Friday as we're at the same low levels again.....

Should be 100 points downside in this one........

Click to expand...

I agree User and am short at 4440.

I only trade the Dax occasionally and I missed a planned long entry point last week when the 50 day ma was crossed just below 4300 because I was distracted by other matters (thats what happens when you get lax on money management and trading discipline).

We may see some indecision here until the US markets open today.

ivorm said:

Hi Effkay,

I trade the DAX.

Take a look at the chart I originally attached to my post #3879 on 12th or 13th May for some Elliott Wave Analysis that seems to have been fairly accurate. (I've attached it to this post as well to save you having to find the other one). The orange rectangle in the top right is the projected minimum area for the top of wave 5.

The second chart is the position at EOD yesterday. You can see we're not far short of the orange area.

Regards,

Ivor

Click to expand...

Great charts Ivorm - it virtually touched the orange area at 4453 just after this mornings open and has been in the 4430 - 4440 range for the past 90 minutes.

kriesau said:

Great charts Ivorm - it virtually touched the orange area at 4453 just after this mornings open and has been in the 4430 - 4440 range for the past 90 minutes.

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That's interesting, Kriesau. I hadn't noticed that.

It might also be worth mentioning that today (27th May) lines up with important fib time reversal points. (0.618 of Wave 4 and 0.618 of Wave 3).

If the DAX does fall, we could be looking at a retracement to around 4100.

Regards,

Ivor