Where is the Dow & others heading in 2005?

Stills seems as if we will touch 10500 today, it is getting a little late though.

Maybe not

The index is now poised at the midpoint of the expanding triangle, nicely positioned for a break either way………

It all hinges on tomorrows Petroleum report imho, so place your bets folks…..

I’m betting ‘up’ but it is really no more than a bet. I think that Alan’s comments have primed the market for upside, but he may be having a laugh……

Yet another laugh…….

"We're focused on oil and we're focused on interest rates of late and they're kind of related because of the inflationary pressures and the fact that that may lead to higher rates at some point," said John Hughes, managing director at Epiphany Equity Research.

Therefore, Hughes believes any time there's oil declines or doesn't move higher -- especially in the wake of a Goldman Sachs analyst's warning last week of the possibility of $105 a barrel oil -- stocks are seeing improvement.

Should there be a significant selloff in oil, Hughes expects a "huge spike" in stock prices.

Click to expand...

Market Internals
Issues ..............................................................NYSE ...........................................Nasdaq
Advancing ........................................................1,871 ..............................................1,591
Declining......................................................... 1,380 ..............................................1,436
Unchanged ........................................................159 ..................................................158
Total................................................................. 3,410 ..............................................3,185

Ratio
Advancers to Decliners................................. 1.36 ..................................................1.11

Volume
Advancing...................................................... 853,327,000 .................................884,343,000
Declining .......................................................549,167,000................................. 723,539,000
Unchanged .....................................................32,321,000.................................... 62,719,000
Total ............................................................1,434,815,000.............................. 1,670,601,000

I think that the balance is decidedly on an up day tomorrow.
cheers d998

I figure for some resistance after the opening at 500 ish .......might just short at this level with a 515 stop....working on the resistance downtrend line already established.......ho hum !!! what do I know

...a bit of P&F

I don't think we will take out 10500 until the oil figures come out. It'll probably stay under 10500 and then should blast through 10500.

Are we having any oil figures today? I thought we were going to see some as normal but my normal calender doesn't seem to have any mention of them:

http://cbs.marketwatch.com/tools/marketsummary/calendars/economic.asp?siteid=mktw

Oil figures afik are released every Wed between 10 and 10:30 New York time (3 - 3:30 UK

Some nice divergences now in play.......lets hope they deliver !!!

Its had the little run down after the figures came out. The dow hit 10480 region now it'll most probably test 10550.

So oil now up on the day but the Dow is holding nicely above 10500. Definately could well see a triple digit rise today.

SOX beginning to show a little weakness, nothing severe yet but bears watching imho

As mentioned yesterday, expanding triangles have bearish connotations, and I don’t think that the bulls will have a clear run until the pattern is broken by an upside thrust through 10560 at least, but it may reserve the right to retest support at 360 again…..

But the key to it all is oil imho – May crude rallied a $+ to the mid $56’s even after the apparently +ve Petroleum Report, so it’s not showing any signs of deflating just yet……

The oil futures are looking to the future and seeing global demand exceeding supply so the price is holding up despite current cosmetic US inventory increases …..(the automotive revolution just about to take off in China may be influencing things……. :| )

What next..? – it all depends on which way the expanding triangle breaks imho, so I’m expecting more volatility within the range until the break occurs and a tentative new trend is established…

Seems the selloff that Greenspan provoked with his comments on inflation mark strong resistance as both the Naz and SPX have now made it to those highs twice since and sold off, though they are putting in higher lows each time they fall back from that level

roguetrader said:

SOX beginning to show a little weakness, nothing severe yet but bears watching imho

Click to expand...

SOX couldn't hold on, and with the internet sector already weak all day the Nasdaq's fate was sealed, rest of the market though stronger pulled back in sympathy

start of Bull trend ?

tradesmart said:

As mentioned yesterday, expanding triangles have bearish connotations, and I don’t think that the bulls will have a clear run until the pattern is broken by an upside thrust through 10560 at least, but it may reserve the right to retest support at 360 again…..

But the key to it all is oil imho – May crude rallied a $+ to the mid $56’s even after the apparently +ve Petroleum Report, so it’s not showing any signs of deflating just yet……

The oil futures are looking to the future and seeing global demand exceeding supply so the price is holding up despite current cosmetic US inventory increases …..(the automotive revolution just about to take off in China may be influencing things……. :| )

What next..? – it all depends on which way the expanding triangle breaks imho, so I’m expecting more volatility within the range until the break occurs and a tentative new trend is established…

Click to expand...

Hi Tradesmart,
I agree with your view that the pattern needs to break upside through 10,560
My view is that the Dow has been, and is still in a range , and needs to close above 10,565 see Monday 21st March close .
I think that it may then start to trend again over several weeks towards 10,891
only time will tell !
regards to all

10459 is a very real expectation by week end.

I appreciate not much to play with.

Candlesticks

Just to add my 2p worth, my software spotted yesterday's effort on the Dow as a "doji" (pointing down) ?
Really envious of The Bramble in sunny Samoa. I would try and get the Cornish maidens here to dress up in hibiscus flowers etc. but I think the weather may be against it.

Q1 reporting season starts Monday.
Ignoring the TA prospects, I think that any negative performances will have greater effect than positive ones in a choppy market.
Comments?