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The Disaggregated COT Report The first Commitments of Traders ("COT") report was published back in 1962 and antecedents of the report can be traced all the way back to 1924. Since its inception, the COT report has gone through numerous changes and improvements over the years. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission ("CFTC"), an independent US agency created by congress in 1974 to regulate the US commodity futures and options markets, is responsible for maintaining the COT report and publishes the data on its website (www.cftc.gov). The CFTC also provides several decades of historical COT data on their website. The COT report provides a breakdown of the buying and selling that takes place in the futures markets each week. By...

Ever wonder what makes a winning trader consistent? In my opinion that consistency is due to the trader having his own "edge" over other traders. This "edge" is what each trader must find for himself. Often traders focus on their results so much that they forget that every other trader in the world is doing the same thing: Trying to profit from price action alone. Trading this way can make you money, but what if you had an added edge to your strategy? In Commodity Futures, we have something called Open Interest that just may provide that advantage. What is This Open Interest? Open Interest is the total number of outstanding contracts that are held by market participants at the end of the day. Contracts that are held overnight have...

Many traders are seeking out assistance in their trading decisions from decision support tools we call technical indicators. While these are helpful, they are only to be used as support for our decision to buy where demand outstrips supply or to sell when supply overwhelms demand. We see this supply/demand imbalance on our charts as support and resistance. However, there is another useful data set that is independent of price that will give us clues as to the possible future of the markets. This data can be found in the Commitment of Traders report. The Commitment of Traders (commonly referred to as the COT) report has been published by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission since 1962 and provides information on the open...

Much has been written about the current bull market in gold and how it compares to previous moves, in particular during the 1970s when the metal soared to at the time unimaginable heights. On this basis it is worth looking at the background to the value story on gold, and this may shed some light on why its bull market may have significantly further to go for CFD traders in coming years. The Gold Standard The UK, which at the time was the world's dominant economic powerhouse, adopted a gold standard in the early 19th century. Other currencies then looked to have gold backing, and towards the end of the century, various European countries joined the standard, though some chose for a time use a joint gold and silver standard. The...

A brief look at the three commodities that are said to drive inflation - silver, sugar and soybeans. In the commodity markets, many inter market relationships exsist. Crude Oil, Gasoline, and Heating Oil are an example, the same for the bean complex with Beans, Bean Oil, and Bean Meal all being obviously related. The reason for the relationship is simple and easy to understand. They are all comprised of a common ingredient the.... Mother Commodity However history has shown that there is many inter market relationships that are not as obvious. The reason for the relationship may not be as clear and, like many legends, could be subject to interpretation. They also are not necessarily as tight or as in sync as the aforementioned...

A look at why we might not yet have seen the top of the oil price rise. The above quote came from one of our companies earliest reports, published on 16 January 2001. The simple equation of supply and demand was the basis for our bullish view and remains so today. Demand is increasing every year, while supply is constrained by a lack of past investment, as well as the absence of any sizable new discoveries. Five years on from our bullish prognosis, energy prices remain at the forefront of financial headlines. While oil has displayed significant volatility during the ascent to all-time highs above US$70 a barrel, we remain resolutely bullish about the direction of prices over the longer term. The case for a high oil price is as...

Two of my favorite trading subjects are cycles and seasonality. In this feature, I'll discuss seasonality in agricultural markets. I want to start out by emphasizing that seasonality or cycles, by themselves, do not make good trading systems. However, they are great "tools" to add to your "Trading Toolbox." Seasonality in agricultural markets is a function of supply and demand factors that occur at about the same time every year. For agricultural markets, supply stimuli can be caused by harvest, planting, weather patterns and transportation logistics. Demand stimuli can result from feed demand, seasonal consumption and export patterns. Livestock futures, too, have seasonal tendencies. Hog and cattle seasonals tend to be caused by...

Without a doubt, more people follow the price of Gold than any other commodity in the world, and with good reason. Gold, that archaic, barbaric, precious metal men and women have coveted since the dawn of mankind, not only presents wonderful opportunities for making money, it also continues to have a major impact on currencies, interest rates and markets across the globe. Four factors that influence Gold While there are many factors that have some impact on this glittery metal the ones that I have found to have the most impact are: The US Dollar Relationship The Seasonal Pattern The Commercials Stockmarket Crashes/ Depressions Let's start by looking at the relationship between gold and dollar index , specifically the United...