damn dude... damn... why would you keep that much money in cash?! i would never trust any place to let them have this much of cash! i would bay useless things but would not do that!
I really like your analysis and it almost says the same thing with mine. I just think it is better to wait for the price line to break above its dynamic link and then enter long.
If I were you I would just look at live trades that people make on youtube, I mean the videos that explain their reasons for making the trade, it does not differ on what asset they are trading. then come up with a strategy that you can write on paper and then try it on different stocks and also...