Notices

Binary

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Revision as of 23:29, 5 June 2007 by Jules101 (Talk | contribs)
Definition:
A fixed odds bet with 2 outcomes, expressed as a spread bet.


Binary betting is a modern method of speculation that arose as an offshoot of spread betting and soon became popular with traders. It is an unusual and interesting hybrid between fixed odds and spread betting.

Contents

Why is a binary bet a hybrid?

Fixed odds because it involves betting on the percentage chance that a specified event will occur. If the event does occur the bet is settled at 100; if the event does not occur the bet is settled at 0. In other words, there are only two possible outcomes and the maximum gain or loss is known in advance.

However a binary bet contains elements of spread betting too, in that (until expiry) it is quoted by the bookmaker as a continuous, fluctuating two-way price (bid and offer) and a trader can buy or sell at any point. This includes open positions which can be closed before expiry at values other than 0 and 100, allowing a trader to lock in profit or cut a loss.

Binary bet prices are not based upon the underlying price of the instrument, but upon the odds of an event occurring, hence the quote range of 0 to 100. The greater the chance of the event occurring then the higher the quote will be and vice versa. A time element will obviously be included in the quote, so that if the event becomes so likely as to be almost certain (e.g. if the FTSE is 50 points up at 16:28 then the quote for it to close up might be 96-99 or 97-100 as the outcome is so likely as to be almost a certainty). This is similar to the time value of options.

In order to place a bet a trader simply buys or sells at the current quoted offer or bid price repectively.

Example bet

Imagine a bid/offer price is quoted on the "S&P 500 Index to finish higher on the day" at say 81-85 (i.e. the bookmaker thinks the odds of this happening are quite high).

A trader who agrees with this view (perhaps it is late in the day and the S&P is up by a healthy percentage, so the chance of it ending down is small) could buy a certain number of pounds per point at 85. Let's say he buys £100 per point.

Bet: Index will close up. 85 x £100 per point.

Index closes up. Bet expires at 100. Profit is 15 x 100 = £1500
Index closes down. Bet expires at 0. Loss is 85 x 100 = £8500

Key features

  • Binary bets are provided on a number of major indices, shares and currency crosses.
  • Stop losses and limit orders are also NOT generally available.
  • Binary betting markets are extremely fast moving. Prices are constantly changing and time is an extremely important factor. Some unique opportunities present themselves, particularly for the short-term trader. Prices are quoted right up to the expiry point of the position and it is therefore possible to make extremely large profits in a matter of minutes.
  • A wide variety of time frames provided, including hourly, daily, weekly and even yearly bets on some indices.
  • Binary betting is not regulated by the Financial Services Authority and this means that an account can be set-up, and funded, on-line in a matter of minutes without the need to sign the usual disclosures.
  • All binary bet events have the opposite position quoted. What this means is, as in our example above, if the S&P 500 was quoted at 81-85 to finish up then it would also be quoted as at 15-19 to finish down.
  • Quotes are generally provided directly by the bookmakers themselves.

Example trading strategies

Fade sudden moves

The trading strategy is simple in its application. It looks for sudden sharp moves (high/lower) on the back of news (in almost any market) and then bets that the move will reverse.

For example, some fantastic economic news is announced which bids the FTSE 100 sharply higher. The quote that it will close higher bounds up to, say, 90-94, at which point we would bet that the move will not last and the market will head back down. The risk to reward ratio is good since we would risk 10 to potentially make 90 (multiplied by our stake).

Stock indices fit the bill perfectly because they have a habit of over-reacting, getting a lot of punters say buying only for this buying to dry up. Then selling pressure creates more pressure (after all if everyone has bought who is left to buy) and before long it’s a rout to get out. This is what the betting strategy tries to take advantage off, and the bonus is that the risk is often small with the payout large.

Binary F2358B Power Method

There is a technique adapted from Butterfly option plays specifically for binary betting developed by a professional trader. There is a valid trade history available that reliably turned £200 into over £6000 in 3 weeks. The reason the strategy is published is due to the fact that certain agencies limited the account to £7000 in winnings by preventing quotes and prices being made within a reasonable timeframe once the account size reached this figure. To find out more check out ukalgotrader (algorithmic trader) here. There are also plans to release a strategy that anticipates economic data moves on the Dow and FTSE future aswell as around options expiry days on the third Friday of every month on the UK LSE and LIFFE exchanges.

Related T2W Resources

Binaries Forum