# Binary

(Difference between revisions)

## Revision as of 13:02, 13 July 2005

Binary betting is a modern method of speculation that arose as an offshoot of spread betting and soon became popular with traders. It is an unusual and interesting hybrid between fixed odds and spread betting.

## Why is a binary bet a hybrid?

Fixed odds because it involves betting on the percentage chance that a specified event will occur. If the event does occur the bet is settled at 100; if the event does not occur the bet is settled at 0. In other words, there are only two possible outcomes and the maximum gain or loss is known in advance.

However a binary bet contains elements of spread betting too, in that (until expiry) it is quoted by the bookmaker as a continuous, fluctuating two-way price (bid and offer) and a trader can buy or sell at any point. This includes open positions which can be closed before expiry at values other than 0 and 100, allowing a trader to lock in profit or cut a loss.

Binary bet prices are not based upon the underlying price of the instrument, but upon the odds of an event occurring, hence the quote range of 0 to 100. The greater the chance of the event occurring then the higher the quote will be and vice versa. A time element will obviously be included in the quote, so that if the event becomes so likely as to be almost certain (e.g. if the FTSE is 50 points up at 16:28 then the quote for it to close up might be 96-99 or 97-100 as the outcome is so likely as to be almost a certainty).

In order to place a bet a trader simply buys or sells at the current quoted offer or bid price repectively.

## Example bet

Imagine a bid/offer price is quoted on the "S&P 500 Index to finish higher on the day" at say 81-85 (i.e. the bookmaker thinks the odds of this happening are quite high).

A trader who agrees with this view (perhaps it is late in the day and the S&P is up by a healthy percentage, so the chance of it ending down is small) could buy a certain number of pounds per point at 85. Let's say he buys Ã‚Â£100 per point.

Bet: Index will close up. 85 x Ã‚Â£100 per point.

Index closes up. Bet expires at 100. Profit is 15 x 100 = Ã‚Â£1500
Index closes down. Bet expires at 0. Loss is 85 x 100 = Ã‚Â£8500

## Key features

• Binary bets are provided on a number of major indices, shares and currency crosses.
• Stop losses and limit orders are also NOT generally available.
• Binary betting markets are extremely fast moving. Prices are constantly changing and time is an extremely important factor. Some unique opportunities present themselves, particularly for the short-term trader. Prices are quoted right up to the expiry point of the position and it is therefore possible to make extremely large profits in a matter of minutes.
• A wide variety of time frames provided, including hourly, daily, weekly and even yearly bets on some indices.
• Binary betting is not regulated by the Financial Services Authority and this means that an account can be set-up, and funded, on-line in a matter of minutes without the need to sign the usual disclosures.
• All binary bet events have the opposite position quoted. What this means is, as in our example above, if the S&P 500 was quoted at 81-85 to finish up then it would also be quoted as at 15-19 to finish down.
• Quotes are generally provided directly by the bookmakers themselves. However one provider works like a stock exchange but caters for binary bets. It gives the user the opportunity to make their own market and offer it to other clients of the exchange. Orders are matched in much the same way as a conventional order book such as SETS.