T2W Trading Community

As a Short-term trader do you ever look at longer term time frames? If not, then this article will explain why the longer term time frames can influence the shorter intraday ones.

Most independent Short-term Traders tend to ignore the Long-Term technical condition of the Market because they believe it is not important in their trading. Few things are further from the truth, that is, if you want to survive the market over a long period of time, and still be trading years, even decades from now.

In the same manner that the tides can raise or sink all ships, the larger trends, behavior and technical design of the markets greatly affects ALL independent traders, regardless of trading style. You can have an independent short-term trader who is consistently successful over a period of months or even years, but eventually, by basic design, the market is going to shift behaviors, and surviving in the new environment will be like learning to trade all over again, despite the past successes. The long-term lifespan of an independent trader is a series of winning and losing streaks, a series of adjustments to the market’s behavior, an unending task of learning, and re-learning the market.

Take a look at your goals as a trader. What is it that you want out of the market? Money? Well, money is a given… what else? A lot of money? That is a given too. Let’s take the best case scenario and say that you did make “a lot of money,” how long will it be before you consume all that money and come running back to the market to look for more? Have you ever stopped to think that you will always be at risk, even if you are “successful?”

How about the goal of “consistent profits?”  This is very possible, but consistency in profit-taking has a lot to do with how “in-sync” you and your trading/technical analysis style is with the market’s current environment, which in turn, is subject to sudden change at any moment. Trading is not just difficult in the beginning. It’s difficult in middle and all the way to the end as well (please don’t kill the messenger). Do you know what it takes to survive long-term? Let’s see.

A given trend or behavior in the market that has been ongoing for months or even years can change in one day. The market has done this many times before. The longevity or lifespan of an independent trader depends almost entirely on his ability to quickly adjust to the market’s many changes. Changes in the market’s behavior are as certain as the changes in seasons: do you have it in your overall plan to adjust to these changes, especially after the market has gotten you and all other participants accustomed to certain type of environment for months, or even years? All too often, the market will perform a major change in behavior at just about the same time as when everyone has “figured-out” or “confirmed” a unified, high-probability method of making money … when the market turns, it’s back to square one for everybody. And I mean everyone.

The market will move from point A to point B with as few on board as possible, did you know that this is the market’s basic design and natural tendency? And it makes sure few are on board by changing behavior and moving very quickly. That’s why you’re never on it.

The many times the market has changed behavior in the past is quite evident in its Long-term charts. You would not need to be an expert in technical analysis to identify major shifts in trends and changes in price action behavior. As a short-term trader, you will feel these changes directly in the Intraday market, as this is merely a small fraction of a larger design. This is true whether you see the changes in the long-term charts or not, one thing is for certain, short-term independent traders are greatly affected by larger trends. The larger (in time-frame) the change … the bigger the effect will be on all participants, regardless of trading style.

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