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A Guide to Economic Data

by Anastasios Katsoulakos -  Jan 19, 2006
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Employment Cost Index
Definition: The Employment Cost Index measures wages and inflation and provides the most comprehensive analysis of worker compensation, including wages, salaries and fringe benefits. The ECI is one of the Fed’s favorite quarterly economic statistics.

Employment Report (Labor Report)
Definition: In the US, the employment report, also known as the labor report, is regarded as the most important among all economic indicators. The report provides the first comprehensive look at the economy, covering nine economic categories. Here are the three main components of the report:

  • Payroll Employment: Measures the change in number of workers in a given month and measures the number of jobs in more than 500 industries (ex-farming) in all states and 255 metropolitan areas. The employment estimates are based on a survey of larger businesses and counts the number of paid employees working part-time or fulltime in the nation's business and government establishments. This release is the most closely watched indicator because of its timeliness, accuracy and its comprehensiveness. It is important to compare this figure to a monthly moving average (6 or 9 months) to capture a true perspective of the trend in labor market strength. Equally important are the frequent revisions for the prior months, which are often significant.
  • Unemployment Rate: The percentage of the civilian labor force actively looking for employment but unable to find jobs. Although it is a highly proclaimed figure (due to simplicity of the number and its political implications), the unemployment rate gets relatively less importance in the markets because it is known to be a lagging indicator -- it usually falls behind economic turns.
  • Average Hourly Earnings Growth: The growth rate between one month’s average hourly rate and another’s sheds light on wage growth and, hence, assesses the potential of wage-push inflation. The year-on-year rate is also important in capturing the longer-term trend.

The employment data give the most comprehensive report on how many people are looking for jobs, how many have them, what they're getting paid and how many hours they are working. These numbers are the best way to gauge the current state and future direction of the economy. They also provide insight on wage trends and wage inflation. Fed chairman Alan Greenspan frequently talks about this data. By tracking the jobs data, investors can sense the degree of tightness in the job market. If wage inflation threatens, usually interest rates will rise, and bond and stock prices will fall. One weakness in this indicator is it is subject to significant revisions and large seasonal distortions.

Existing Home Sales
Definition: Existing Home Sales is a measure of the selling rate of pre-owned single family homes, collected by the National Association of Realtors from 650 realtor associations.

Factory Orders
Definition: Factory orders refer to the total of durable and nondurable good orders.

Futures Betting

FOMC Meeting
Definition: The Federal Open Market Committee is a twelve-member committee made up of the seven members of the Board of Governors and five Federal Reserve Bank presidents. It meets eight times per year to determine the near-term direction of monetary policy, such as setting guidelines for the purchase and sale of government securities and setting policy relating to System operations in the foreign exchange markets. These changes in monetary policy are now announced immediately after FOMC meetings. Most importantly, the Fed determines interest rate policy at FOMC meetings. Market participants speculate about the possibility of an interest rate change at these meetings, and if the outcome is different from expectations, the impact on the markets can be dramatic and far-reaching. The interest rate set by the Fed the federal funds rate serves as a benchmark for all other rates. A change in the fed funds rate, the lending rate banks charge each other for the use of overnight funds, translates directly through to all other interest rates from Treasury bonds to mortgage loans. It also changes the dynamics of competition for investor dollars: when bonds yield 10 percent, they will attract more money away from stocks then when they only yield 5 percent. The level of interest rates affects the economy higher rates tend to slow activity; lower rates stimulate activity, a ripple effect that expands into all sectors of the economy

Gross Domestic Product
Definition: Gross Domestic Product (GDP) is the total value of final goods and services produced within a country's borders in a year. It is one of the measures of national income and output. It may be used as one indicator of the standard of living in a country, but there may be limitations with this view.

Housing Starts/Building Permits
Definition: An estimate of the number of housing units on which construction was started. Starting construction is defined as excavation for the footings or foundation, or the first shovel of dirt to break ground. (In response to natural disasters such as Hurricane Andrew in August of 1992, that definition has been expanded to a housing unit built on an existing foundation after the previous structure had been completely destroyed.) Housing starts are divided into single-family and multifamily(2+) units. Beginning construction on a 100 unit apartment building, for example, is counted as 100 starts.

IFO
Definition: The IFO Business Climate Index is based on ca. 7,000 monthly survey responses of firms in manufacturing, construction, wholesaling and retailing. The firms are asked to give their assessments of the current business situation and their expectations for the next six months. They can characterise their situation as “good”, “satisfactorily” or “poor” and their business expectations for the next six months as “more favourable”, “unchanged” or “more unfavourable”. The balance value of the current business situation is the difference of the percentages of the responses “good” and “poor”, the balance value of the expectations is the difference of the percentages of the responses “more favourable” and “more unfavourable”. The business climate is a transformed mean of the balances of the business situation and the expectations. For calculating the index values the transformed balances are all normalized to the average of the year 2000.

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