T2W Trading Community

Wed, 2nd Mar 2005 - 22:50 GMT (QQQQ = 37.61)

Today’s move above the near term pivot (48) was pretty impressive when viewed on the 60 min chart, although the D chart shows the big, ugly down –BE (negative bearish engulfing) candle from 17 Feb which sparked the fall to the 36.70 level (29). As observed yesterday, the 50MA is now well into a decent uptrend, under the rising 10/20MA pair, but the fact is we failed at the 38 level today, and immediately overhead from that level lies the barrier at 38.20; for now, the technicals are mixed, but today’s two candle thrust shows the latent bullishness building up in this market given a ‘less resistant path’, ie no oil spike, Gulf event or sudden inflation tremor. Our intermediate term tactical call is for continued chop and a struggle to break out, which gives us pause for thought as the top of the current range approaches; however, some key constituents of the Nasdaq are acting well (SMH) while others may be bottoming (HHH).

Fri, 4th Mar 2005 - 18:55 GMT (QQQQ = 37.61)

Thursday’s –BE (50) 1 st candle fell through a 10MA which had started to fall on the back of the prior session’s weakness: any ST longs at this juncture would be highly suspect, and indeed on the intermediate term picture a long position was also looking tenuous at best. A repeat of Monday’s sharp plunge followed on heavy volume, revealing how thin the ice is currently for the bullish case for the Nasdaq. Today’s opening spike once again put the bears onto the back foot, or at least off the front foot, but today’s heaviest volume (53) was reserved for the spike and failure (52) at 37.74, just above the top of the real body of yesterday’s –BE on the D chart (51). There are other short term pointers out there as the market tries to answer some pretty fundamental questions such as can it live with $50+ oil, even as the jobs picture improves: the 50MA, which twists & turns in subtle ways, is now flat once more: if you think this spells drift, the daily chart is no better, but as long as Q holds above 50MA as well as the bulk of today’s big spike (note the 3 lower shadows brushing the 50MA), there is a case for a move towards new highs: tonight’s close will be pretty revealing, and this potential pivot (55) out of today’s range may start to answer some of our questions.

(click to enlarge)

Wed, 9th Mar 2005 - 12:40 GMT (QQQQ = 37.68)

Monday’s 70c move peaked at the series of upper shadows under 38.30, just under the area where the market failed in mid-February. Clearly Monday's sharp move in the opening 4 candles was impressive, and something we have not seen for many sessions, but indecision soon re-asserted itself and a shooting star followed by -BE (57), which fell through a declining 10MA, has now pushed this embryonic rally back down to the 50 MA . ST-N, IT-N.

Wed, 9th Mar 2005 - 16:12 GMT (QQQQ = 37.81)

First high volume candle today bounces sharply from same level as Monday’s early up candle & holds above the 50MA / upper shadows (circled) at the top of near term SR (59) reveal clearly the next hurdle beyond this promising early move.

Tue, 15th Mar 2005 - 09:57 GMT (QQQQ = 37.34)

Support held at the March 3 rd low, followed by a DNA driven move which takes us back above an improving 10MA. Volume on this key candle was light at 13m (20m + is a heavy volume candle), and aside from biotech, market movers were thin on the ground. The 15min plot (15 min chart 15 Mar 2005) shows clearly the SR level at 37.37 and a near term overbought condition: notice the Hammer * (* denotes variation) & SO (stochastic oscillator) cross as the 1 st tall up candle on rising volume crosses 20MA. QQQQ is oversold but not at extreme hammer levels, and may have another shoe to drop in its current weakened state within a 36.50-38.50 range, but the key for now is the close-in action (15/30/60min) for signs of whether there is anything behind yesterday's late push off recent lows. 

(click to enlarge)