T2W Trading Community

Tue, 15th Feb 2005 - 18:35 GMT (QQQQ = 38.00)

Initial test of rising Trendline (TL) (15) held on Mid-East jitters. We’ll be keeping close tabs on both (15) and the key zone around at the foot of the prior basing area around 37.69 (16) with regard to the IT (intermediate term) position on QQQQ.

Wed, 16th Feb 2005 - 15:24 GMT (QQQQ = 38.07)

Fourth test of the lower boundary at 37.87 (17) is followed by a strong up move as Greenspan assuages some market concerns. Intermediate trade still long although only hanging by a few threads. Notably, we have broken the 20MA for the first time since the +BE (12) which sparked the up move. Likewise the new –FWR (16) which just repelled this hour’s move (18) is new to the intermediate picture.

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Wed, 16th Feb 2005 - 15:45 GMT (QQQQ = 38.01)

Very tall shadows (18) precisely at the top of the window are a new element in this precariously balanced intermediate long position. The situation in some ways is clearer now: the 37.87 level – tested 4 times so far - is absolutely key. Today we broke the 20MA on light volume which is another ‘caution’ flag.

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Wed, 16th Feb 2005 - 18:35 GMT (QQQQ = 37.89)

Our Q/IT position is looking bruised after Greenspan’s speech today, but herein lies the beauty of hour by hour analysis of the action in this benchmark ETF. We have indeed partially ‘broken down’, as numerous flags have suggested we would. Let’s count them for good measure; first off, the Shooting Star (–SS) swiftly followed by the sharp move down (15) which negated the breakout move to 38.50; so far, so good. No strong break through key 20MA, nor through the rising trendline. Follows a weak move to just above +TWC mid point on weak volume, then today’s gap open down (16) followed by several tests of the lower boundary (17). More upper shadows within the window, with no penetration at all of the 20MA. The latest factor is a 2nd consecutive candle (19) below rising TL (15) and a potential close below the top layer of SR (marked by the lower shadow of today’s 2nd candle). Stepping back, despite this poor action, Q is still above the base formed during Friday & Monday’s flatlining market.

Thu, 17th Feb 2005 - 15:25 GMT (QQQQ = 37.75)

Rating change: Q/IT/N (long to neutral). Major move through key SR and 50MA on hourly chart (21) following the pre-market failure to move in to Falling Window Support (–FWS) zone.

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