Day Trading & Forex Forum

arturo1

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 18-June-2009


CPI lower than expected culminating the biggest drop in a 12 month period during the last 60 years, FedEx bearish economic outlook and Goldman Sachs ready to repay $10 billion in government funds, banks get downgraded by S&P, all this gave way to a narrow range session with a mixed close.

ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Initial Claims
10:00 AM Leading Indicators
10:00 AM Philadelphia Fed




YESTERDAY’S MARKET
Markets fluctuated during the Globex session giving way to an almost unchanged opening. The SP started the day at 906.75 and after testing 908.25, it pulled back to 907.00, rallied to 909.25 and pushed down to test the 904.00 area. After a feeble bounce, the SP made a new low at 902.50. The markets held and the index bounced back to 907.50 but with extreme overall weakness it could not gain the necessary momentum to push higher and it retreated to the lows. The SP made a new low at 900.25 bounced to 902.00 and pushed lower to 899.25. The SP held at our support area and pushed up to 904.50, pulled back to 902.00 and continued higher to 907.00 from where it sat back to 903.75 but managed to come back and pushed higher to 911.50. The index pulled back to the previous high at 907.00 and continued to press higher reaching 914.00. Unable to continue higher, the index pulled back, traded in a narrow range below the highs and later pushed down to 905.00, bounced to 909.00 and pulled back into the close. For the day the SP lost 2.75 points and settled at 905.00, the Nasdaq added 8.25 points finishing the day at 1452.50 and the Russell closed modestly higher at 503.10. The Dow lost 7 points closing at 8497.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “The SP continued to set back and closed below the 918.00 area. During the last week I mentioned this level as the line in the sand between higher prices and the possibility that the summer high has been posted for the already 100 day old rally. I also mentioned that two consecutive closes below that area is a good indicator of the failure to move higher and will negate my scenario for another visit to the 950.00 or higher before the end of this week. Anyway, if the markets will continue with the current pullback and not get reversed from a lower opening or from early weakness in today’s Wednesday’s session, the way may be open for a test of the 887.00, that level is a good area to get positioned for those who believe that the uptrend will continue without posting a higher low after the March lows. We may see a rally from the 900.00 area, obvious support, but if the bulls won’t jump aggressively near that area, then the story for the rally will be over and markets will turn down, selling the rallies will be the way to go. For today’s trading session, I don’t want to consider a long trade as a position unless the three indexes are trading in positive territory, but if the SP founds early support around the 900.00 area, it could bounce to 912.00 and 918.00.”


As expected, the early weakness found support around the 900.00 area giving way to a good rebound that reached the levels mentioned on yesterday’s newsletter.
The SP pulled back strongly founding support at the “obvious”, and with yesterdays moderately lower close, after a session where prices fluctuated, it completed the parameters for a first degree countertrend move, three sessions. So we have a few possibilities for today before next Friday option expiration, the first one is that the markets show another balancing session with narrow trading ranges that could get expanded slightly above yesterday’s high and reach, maybe, the 918.00 area, or make a marginal new low just to bounce and close on the 905.50-910.00 band.
The second one is that yesterday’s bounce was only a one day recovery attempt and the downtrend will get resumed pressing below the 900.00 area, and the third one, is that guided by the Nasdaq and the Russell which showed good buying at yesterday’s lows, the SP start to reverse this week losses and post a strong session where the upside objective will be the 924.00-925.00 levels.
Obviously, I can not predict what will happen, that analysis is for the astrology experts, so my work may be a bit easier, try to figure which of the previous scenarios has the higher probabilities to happen, we know, we could see balancing, rally and sell off in one session, but we will try to give a chance to the fact that the third negative session was mixed and bullish divergences were seen between the different markets.
So, if the lows, whatever they are, get posted during the first hour of the session, I will be a buyer once the markets turn positive, only a double bottom at yesterday’s lows could signal a rally while markets are trading in the red, but if the markets rallied first and the bounce lost its momentum just below yesterday’s highs look for a double top and increased weakness once the markets turn negative.




TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 908.00-909.00 on the SP, 1455.00-1456.50 on the Nasdaq and 505.60-506.80 on the Russell, if the early action or the turnaround from lower prices is solid, those should get easily exceeded pushing the markets to test yesterday’s highs at 912.00-913.50 on the SP, 1459.00-1461.00 on the Nasdaq and 508.70-510.40 on the Russell. If those can not hold, posting double tops with yesterday’s highs, then look for the move to continue pushing the indexes up to 917.50-918.50 on the SP, 1469.00-1471.50 on the NQ and 513.40-514.20 on the Russell. Trading above them could invite new buying in all the markets.


There is support at 903.50-902.25 on the SP, 1447.00-1445.00 on the Nasdaq and 501.20-499.30 on the Russell, if those can not hold look for a test of yesterday’s lows at 900.50-899.75 on the SP, 1441.00-1439.50 on the Nasdaq and 497.20-495.50 on the Russell. If those hold and the session ends on the green, markets may have completed the pullback, but if new lows get posted on the charts, new sellers may join the move pushing the indexes down to 896.75-894.50 on the SP, 1433.00-1432.00 on the NQ and 492.40-490.90 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK
















Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

arturo1

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 25-June-2009


Durable Goods Orders up by 1.8%, New Home Sales down 0.6%. Fed maintains the benchmark interest rates between zero and .25% and leaves the bond purchases unchanged as it said that inflation will remain subdued for some time. Markets closed mixed for the session.
ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Initial Claims
8:30 AM Q1 GDP- Final

YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After trading slightly higher for most of the nightly session, the E-mini SP started the day at 897.00 and leaded by the strength on the Nasdaq continued to push upward reaching 900.50. After a small pullback that held above 898.00, the index broke higher reaching 903.50. As the short covering continued the SP made a new high at 905.00 where the rally halted. The SP consolidated near the highs, and, finally it continued to press higher and reached 906.50. Once the early part of the session was over, markets traded with less volume as they wait for the later release of the FOMC rate decision and policy. The SP pulled back to 901.25 and held bouncing back to 904.50, once more, the index tested the late lows. Just as the FOMC policy statement was released the SP pushed down to 899.25 bounced back to 904.25 and traded in that range for the next minutes, finally, the markets sold off, the Dow entered into negative territory and the SP pushed down to 893.75. The SP bounced back to 899.25, failed to trade higher, made a new low at 891.75 and bounced to 896.25. The SP tested once more the lows and pushed up to 897.25 trading quietly into the end of the session. For the day the SP added 7.75 points closing the day at 898.00, the Nasdaq gained 23.25 points and settled at 1447.25 and the Russell was up 6.50 points at 493.00. The Dow finished the session at 8299 after giving back early gains, a loss of 23 points during the session.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
After Monday’s downtrend session where the daily highs were done at the opening, the normal Tuesday’s narrow range session where markets consolidated the previous day sell off and yesterday’s early rally in front of the FOMC policy statement and rate decision and late sell off attempt that managed to hold above the weekly lows, markets may have found a short term bottom.
Yesterday’s trading volumes where not higher than in the previous session, so if we were waiting for some kind of exhausting low, even it may have putted in on yesterday session ,I would had preferred higher volumes and settlements near the daily lows.
Just seven days ago I wrote about the probabilities to test the 887.00 area on the SP, which was after the indexes posted triple tops and intraday failures to hold their gains, the weakest of the indexes, the Dow; after this area was tested on the SP, it is probable that the profit taking will hold, and the markets will keep a neutral position in front of the end of the 2Q, fund manager have to show something better than three months ago.
At the moment that I am writing my newsletter, markets have a nightly rally, the 907.00-908.00 areas on the SP, and the 918.00 level which showed strong resistance during the last week will have to get exceeded in the next 48 hours if that markets wants to deal with the 924.00-926.00 band from which the last sell off started, until that, there is a chance that instead of moving higher, this market will consolidate for a few days and then resume the downtrend, obviously all the time that the index holds this week lows, the markets area OK, but the other main markets, leaded by the Nasdaq will have to join the rebound and show some follow through to the upside in order to avoid another wide range downside session. Take into account that 908.50 are the 61.8 Fibonacci between the weekly highs and lows, so this area has to get exceeded and hold on a pullback for this rebound to gain additional momentum.
For today’s trading session, early strength may fail to hold all the time that the SP does not break above the 908.50 level, if markets sell off from an early bounce, look for the downside pressure top increase once the index trades below 897.50.



TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 901.00-903.00 on the SP, 1452.00-1454.00 on the Nasdaq and 494.20-496.10on the Russell. If markets trade higher, look for them to test 907.00-908.00 on the SP, 1460.00-1462.50 on the Nasdaq and 499.40-500.40 on the Russell. Those levels on the SP are the 61.8 Fibonacci retracement between the weekly lows and highs, so for the markets to resume their uptrend, those will have to get exceeded pushing the indexes up to 911.25-912.50 on the SP, 1468.00-1470.00 on the Nasdaq and 504.00-505.80on the Russell.


There is strong support at 894.50-893.00 on the SP, 1442.50-1440.00 on the Nasdaq and 490.50-489.30 on the Russell. Nothing bad happens all the time that the indexes hold above them, but if they fail, look for the key areas to get tested at 888.75-888.00 on the SP, 1435.00-1433.00 on the Nasdaq and 486.00-485.60 on the Russell. If the markets can not rally from there, these week double bottom on the SP at 887.00 will have to hold on the close or more downside action could happen during the next few sessions. GOOD LUCK
















Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

arturo1

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 26-June-2009

Initial Claims higher than expected at 627K, Continuing Claims at 6.73 million and the 1Q GDP final numbers at minus 5.5%; Bernanke says Central Bank acted with “highest integrity” in Merrill deal. Markets rallied strong.

ECONOMIC DATA
8:30 AM Personal Income
8:30 AM Personal Spending
8:30 AM PCE Core
9:55 AM Michigan Sentiment-Rev.

YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After trading higher during the Globex session in which the SP reached 908.50, the markets opened lower. The E-mini SP started the session at 892.50 and bounced to 894.50, it broke higher and rallied all the way up to 905.50 where the move lost its momentum. With good support above the 900.00 level, the SP pulled back to 901.00, bounced to 903.75, pulled back to 902.00 and pushed higher breaking above the Globex high reaching 910.50 and then 914.75. Finally the rally stalled and the market traded in a sideways pattern but without selling coming into the markets, the SP pushed up to 917.75. The SP pulled back to 914.00, held, pushed lower to 910.50 bouncing back to 915.00. During the last minutes of the session, the SP broke below 910.00 and rapidly recovers and closed near the daily highs. For the session the SP added 18.50 points and settled at 916.50, the Nasdaq gained 25.75 closing the day at 1473.00 and the Russell advanced 12.70 points closing at 505.70. The Dow also posted a solid rally with a 172 points gain closing at 8472.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote:”After Monday’s downtrend session where the daily highs were done at the opening, the normal Tuesday’s narrow range session where markets consolidated the previous day sell off and yesterday’s early rally in front of the FOMC policy statement and rate decision and late sell off attempt that managed to hold above the weekly lows, markets may have found a short term bottom. Just seven days ago I wrote about the probabilities to test the 887.00 area on the SP, which was after the indexes posted triple tops and intraday failures to hold their gains, the weakest of the indexes, the Dow; after this area was tested on the SP, it is probable that the profit taking will hold, and the markets will keep a neutral position in front of the end of the 2Q, fund manager have to show something better than three months ago. At the moment that I am writing my newsletter, markets have a nightly rally, the 907.00-908.00 areas on the SP, and the 918.00 level which showed strong resistance during the last week will have to get exceeded in the next 48 hours if that markets wants to deal with the 924.00-926.00 band from which the last sell off started, until that, there is a chance that instead of moving higher, this market will consolidate for a few days and then resume the downtrend, obviously all the time that the index holds this week lows, the markets area OK, but the other main markets, leaded by the Nasdaq will have to join the rebound and show some follow through to the upside in order to avoid another wide range downside session. Take into account that 908.50 are the 61.8 Fibonacci between the weekly highs and lows, so this area has to get exceeded and hold on a pullback for this rebound to gain additional momentum. For today’s trading session, early strength may fail to hold all the time that the SP does not break above the 908.50 level, if markets sell off from an early bounce, look for the downside pressure top increase once the index trades below 897.50.”

So the weekly lows held and after the markets posted an early higher low and intraday double bottom we had an uptrend session, once the 908.50 area was exceeded it was all for the shorts, and this time, it was a broad based rally, the Dow joined the move.
The SP failed short of the 918.00 area, the Dow couldn’t make it to the 8500 level and the Nasdaq stalled at the 1473.00-1475.00 resistance levels. All these are very important price levels, for the rally to continue, into the end of the month, all three markets have to close above them, otherwise, yesterday’s rally may give way to a consolidation or narrow range session during today’s trading session and maybe for the rest of the month.
If we look at the daily charts we can see the huge sell off that happened last Monday that came after three days of a weak rally and that pushed markets to a new low, below the June 17 low, then we have a narrow range session with a positive close and then two positive sessions with yesterday’s solid move. So three days up, a one day sell off and another three days of rally. This may look positive, but for the move to get extended and not fall under a first degree countertrend in a down trending market, a few things have to happen, first, if today markets consolidate yesterday’s big move, it will be normal, but the close can not be weak, even taking into account that it is a Friday and traders may avoid a long position for the weekend; second, nothing good happens if the SP does not break and close above the 918.50 area; and third, the June 16 924.75 on the SP from where the recent pullback gained momentum has to get exceeded in a solid way.
Yesterday’s rally looks a bit different, volumes were better and the Dow joined the move, so I will be very surprised if today’s session reverses yesterday’s gains, but we could see back and forth action between the 908.50 area and the 918.50 break or made high.
With some shorts trapped at lower prices, I may favor buying the deeps, however I don’t expect another trend session, so two side action may be seen, selling may be done near the resistance areas, but if the 922.00 level gets exceeded be careful as a short covering rally may push the SP up to 931.00 if we have another strong session. (Try to keep a long position if the NQ is over performing the SP).



TODAY’S SESSION
There is strong resistance at 919.00-921.50 on the SP, 1478.00-1480.00 on the Nasdaq and 507.60-509.60 on the Russell. If the rally stalls there, look for a good reversal, but if those can not hold the buying activity, markets may test 924.00-925.50 on the SP, 1486.00-1488.50 and 511.50-513.40 on the Russell. Another short trade may be try at those areas, but expect a strong breakout if they do not hold, that may push the indexes up to 930.50-931.25 on the SP, 1496.00-1497.00 on the Nasdaq and 517.30-517.60 on the Russell before the session is over.


There is support at 913.50-911.75 on the SP, 1468.00-1466.00 on the Nasdaq and 503.80-501.90 on the Russell. Nothing bad happens all the time that the indexes hold above them, but if they fail, look for strong support at 909.00-908.00 on the SP, 1462.00-1460.00 on the Nasdaq and 499.90-497.70 on the Russell. If those fail, markets probably will gain downside momentum and go for the next support levels at 903.50-901.50 on the SP, 1451.50-1448.50 on the Nasdaq and 494.20-492.40 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK>













Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

arturo1

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 29-June-2009
Personal Income up 1.4% on stimulus checks and Personal Spending up .3%, Consumer sentiment slightly better than expected; markets fluctuated in a narrow range.

WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 03-July-2009
R3 940.00
R2 933.25
R1 917.00
PP 905.75
S1 894.75
S2 881.00
S3 870.50


ECONOMIC DATA
None


FRIDAY’S MARKET
With the markets trading quietly during the night, the E-mini SP started the session at 913.50 and after making an early low at 910.50 it bounced back to 914.25, pulled back a couple of points and leaded by the Nasdaq which turned positive pushed up to 916.25. The SP pulled back to 912.50 bounced to 915.00 and pushed lower to 909.75. The markets held and the SP bounced back to 914.50 but failed to break higher and pulled back once more to the lows. After posting a new marginal low at 909.50 the index managed to post a feeble bounce but failed once more to push higher and made a new low at 908.50. With the Nasdaq holding, the SP continue to trade above the pivot point and bounced to 914.50. After trading for many hours on a narrow range, the SP made a breakout attempt that reached 916.00 but failed to gain the necessary momentum and kept trading between the daily ranges, for the day, the SP lost 2.50 points and settled at 914.00, the Nasdaq added 3.75 points closing the session at 1476.75 and the Russell closed higher by 1.40 points at 507.10. The Dow lost 34 points closing another negative week, Friday’s settlement at 8438.



MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Friday I wrote: “The SP failed short of the 918.00 area, the Dow couldn’t make it to the 8500 level and the Nasdaq stalled at the 1473.00-1475.00 resistance levels. All these are very important price levels, for the rally to continue into the end of the month, all three markets have to close above them, otherwise, yesterday’s rally may give way to a consolidation or narrow range session during today’s trading session and maybe for the rest of the month. If we look at the daily charts we can see the huge sell off that happened last Monday that came after three days of a weak rally and that pushed markets to a new low, below the June 17 low, then we have a narrow range session with a positive close and then two positive sessions with yesterday’s solid move. So three days up, a one day sell off and another three days of rally. This may look positive, but for the move to get extended and not fall under a first degree countertrend in a down trending market, a few things have to happen, first, if today markets consolidate yesterday’s big move, it will be normal, but the close can not be weak, even taking into account that it is a Friday and traders may avoid a long position for the weekend; second, nothing good happens if the SP does not break and close above the 918.50 area; and third, the June 16 924.75 on the SP from where the recent pullback gained momentum has to get exceeded in a solid way. Yesterday’s rally looks a bit different, volumes were better and the Dow joined the move, so I will be very surprised if today’s session reverses yesterday’s gains, but we could see back and forth action between the 908.50 area and the 918.50 break or made high.”


Markets consolidated the previous session strong rally and they traded in a narrow range closing mixed for the day, the strength in the Nasdaq helped the SP, the low for the session was at my 908.50 and the Globex high was just half point above my 918.50 level.
Last week sell off attempt may have not ended yet, the SP is facing two strong resistance areas, the first one around the 918.00 area and the second one on the 924.00-926.00 band; for this market to give a try at the 950.00 area or higher, the index has to close above those areas, until then, there area great chances that last Monday’s lows or a bit lower will get tested.
This week is full of economic data, is also a shortened holiday week as markets will be closed next Friday for an extended weekend honoring the Independence Day, so the main economic numbers, the unemployment figures will get released next Thursday. Also we have the end of the second quarter, I suspect that fund managers will try to keep the markets at reasonable levels and the markets will rebound if there are some daily or intraday sell offs. Additional to this, as the unemployment figures are a lagging indicator, I think that bad economic data will get accepted by the market players and the markets will hold, at least for the week.
Saying this, early weakness or a weak close on Monday, may turn to be a buying opportunity for the rest of the week, and maybe, the SP will show more consolidation between the 900.00 and 925.00 levels, but take into account that initial weakness will be present below the 908.50 to 905.75, and it could see additional selling coming into the markets if that index trades below 898.00-896.00.


TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 918.00-919.00 on the SP, 1480.00-1482.00 on the Nasdaq and 509.00-509.90 on the Russell, those levels on the SP are critical for that market to push up, if the Nasdaq is strong it may help the SP to push higher and test 924.00-925.00 while the NQ reaches 1486.00-1488.00 and the Russell 512.10-512.70. Those areas on the SP may fail the first time they get tested; many sellers are ready to take a chance there, however, if they get exceeded look for the indexes to press higher reaching 928.00-929.50 on the SP, 1492.50-1494.00 on the Nasdaq and 517.30-518.50 on the Russell.

There is some support above Friday’s consolidation levels at 912.00-911.00 on the SP, 1473.50-1471.75 on the Nasdaq and 505.20-504.30 on the Russell. Failing there may result in a test of last Friday’s lows at 908.50-907.50 on the SP, 1466.00-1464.00 on the Nasdaq and 501.90-501.50 on the Russell. If buyers do not step in there and the markets post a double bottom, expect the selling to get some momentum pushing the indexes down to 904.25-903.25 on the SP, 1457.50-1456.00 on the Nasdaq and 497.50-496.80 on the Russell. If the markets trade below them we may see another wide range downward session. GOOD LUCK.


















Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

arturo1

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 30-June-2009


Bernie Madoff gets sentenced to 150 years in jail. VIX drops to lowest levels since Lehman collapse



ECONOMIC DATA
9:00 AM Consumer Confidence
9:00 A&P CaseShiller Home Price Index
9:45 AM Chicago PMI


FRIDAY’S MARKET
Markets started the holiday shortened week on the green. The E-mini SP started the session at 917.00 and pulled back a point in a half. After trying to push higher, above the opening price, the index moved lower to 914.00, the index bounced back to 916.00 and traded in a narrow range for the first minutes of the session. The SP made a new low at 911.75 and bounced to 913.00. While the Russell posted a new low, the SP held and rallied all the way up to 918.50, and after a few minutes and once the Nasdaq started to cooperate it pushed to a new high at 923.25. The rally ended and the markets traded in a narrow range near the daily highs, later, the upside pressure pushed the SP up to 924.00. The narrow range trading pattern continued and despite the pullback on the Nasdaq and Russell the SP refused to break down. Markets traded in a narrow range into the end of the session, the SP added 7.25 points and settled at 921.25, the Nasdaq ended higher by 4.75 points closing the session at 1481.50 and the Russell gained 1.70 points at 508.00
MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Friday I wrote: “Last week sell off attempt may have not ended yet, the SP is facing two strong resistance areas, the first one around the 918.00 area and the second one on the 924.00-926.00 band; for this market to give a try at the 950.00 area or higher, the index has to close above those areas, until then, there area great chances that last Monday’s lows or a bit lower will get tested. This week is full of economic data, is also a shortened holiday week as markets will be closed next Friday for an extended weekend honoring the Independence Day, so the main economic numbers, the unemployment figures will get released next Thursday. Also we have the end of the second quarter, I suspect that fund managers will try to keep the markets at reasonable levels and the markets will rebound if there are some daily or intraday sell offs. Additional to this, as the unemployment figures are a lagging indicator, I think that bad economic data will get accepted by the market players and the markets will hold, at least for the week. Saying this, early weakness or a weak close on Monday, may turn to be a buying opportunity for the rest of the week, and maybe, the SP will show more consolidation between the 900.00 and 925.00 levels, but take into account that initial weakness will be present below the 908.50 to 905.75, and it could see additional selling coming into the markets if that index trades below 898.00-896.00.”


Markets made their daily lows during the night and the earlier pullback gave way to a solid move that reached my 924.00 area. That is the June 19 high from where the SP, after a narrow range session, saw a sharp sell off that pushed that index below the 890.00 area.
If yesterday I mentioned on my newsletter that the SP MUST close above the 924.00 area for that market to give another try to the highs, yesterday’s action just confirms the importance of that level. Take into account that once the end of quarter is gone, a profit taking move that pushed the SP below the 890.00 area may be seen, to negate this scenario, the 924.00-926.00 area may get solidly exceeded and hold for two consecutive closes, or the rally from last week lows may be only a countertrend move in a market that may see lower prices.
Another important factor is the VIX, which fell to its lowest levels in the year; it seems that traders are very confident with the market condition, the March to July rally and the economic data. This is a red flag, too much complacency, but that does not mean that the markets can not move higher.
The slow activity seen during yesterday’s session may continue for the rest of the week, and while today we will get the first economic piece of data, no matter if the numbers are goods or bad, the daily sideways pattern may hold for the rest of the week.
So, let’s try to make our life easier, and let’s give a chance to the NQ to show the way, but with high precaution as mixed market conditions where rotation is seen between the different indexes, may give way to erratic moves that do not result in a trend.
For today’s trading session, once the economic numbers get released, go long once the NQ trades in positive territory, but beware of any bullishness if both, the SP and Nasdaq area trading in negative territory as markets could surprise those who overweight the lower VIX thinking that the way is only to the upside.





TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 922.50-924.25 on the SP, 1484.00-1486.00 on the Nasdaq and 509.10-510.20on the Russell, as I wrote yesterday, those levels on the SP are critical for that market to push up, the Nasdaq may stop lagging in order to help the SP to push higher to 926.00-927.75 while the NQ reaches 1489.00-1490.00 and the Russell 513.20-514.50. If the rally does not end there, then the indexes may go for the next areas at 930.50-931.00 on the SP, 1494.00-1496.00 on the Nasdaq and 518.00-518.60on the Russell.

Initial support at 919.75-918.00 on the SP, 1476.50-1474.00 on the Nasdaq and 506.10-505.30 on the Russell. Some selling may be seen below those areas pushing the markets down to 916.00-914.00 on the SP, 1468.00-1466.00 on the Nasdaq and 501.50-500.80 on the Russell. If those fail to hold and the sideways pattern is due to continue, then the next levels at 912.00-911.00 on the SP,1461.00-1460.50 on the Nasdaq and 494.90-493.70 on the Russell must hold. GOOD LUCK


















Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

arturo1

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 1st-July-2009


World confidence improving, Home prices continue to drop, but less than expected, as foreclosures rise. Chicago PMI increases to 39.9 during June and Consumer Confidence declines as job outlook looks gloomy



ECONOMIC DATA
8:15 AM ADP Employment
10:00 AM Construction Spending
10:00 AM ISM Index
10:00 AM Pending Home Sales
10:35 AM Crude Inventories
2:00 PM Auto Sales
2:00 PM Truck Sales


YESTERDAY’S MARKET
After trading quietly during the Globex session, the E-mini SP started the session at 922.75 and after testing 922.00 it bounced to 925.00, after holding near that level and once the economic data started to get released, the SP made a new high at 926.25 but backed off to 923.00. The SP rallied back to 925.50 and with the Consumer Confidence data out it sold off to 918.00 an after a failed attempt to break back above the 920.,00 area, the index pushed strongly down to 910.75. The SP bounced back to 913.75, pulled back to test the daily lows and failed giving way to anew low at 908.25. The SP bounced back to 911.50 while sitting for a long time near the lows, another pullback failed to break to a new low and the index held pushing up to 912.75. While the Nasdaq kept lagging, the other indexes showed more support, and with extremely low volumes, the SP bounced to 913.75. After a few attempts to break higher it pulled back to the lows but rebounded during the last part of the session, for the day, the SP lost 5.75 p;oints and settled at 915.50, the Nasdaq lost 5.25 points ending the session at 1476.25 and the Russell ended lower by less than a point at 507.20. The Dow lost 82 points finishing the day at 8447.



MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Friday I wrote: “Markets made their daily lows during the night and the earlier pullback gave way to a solid move that reached my 924.00 area. That is the June 19 high from where the SP, after a narrow range session, saw a sharp sell off that pushed that index below the 890.00 area. If yesterday I mentioned on my newsletter that the SP MUST close above the 924.00 area for that market to give another try to the highs, yesterday’s action just confirms the importance of that level. Take into account that once the end of quarter is gone, a profit taking move that pushed the SP below the 890.00 area may be seen, to negate this scenario, the 924.00-926.00 area may get solidly exceeded and hold for two consecutive closes, or the rally from last week lows may be only a countertrend move in a market that may see lower prices. Another important factor is the VIX, which fell to its lowest levels in the year; it seems that traders are very confident with the market condition, the March to July rally and the economic data. This is a red flag, too much complacency, but that does not mean that the markets can not move higher. For today’s trading session, once the economic numbers get released, go long once the NQ trades in positive territory, but beware of any bullishness if both, the SP and Nasdaq area trading in negative territory as markets could surprise those who overweight the lower VIX thinking that the way is only to the upside.”

Yesterday’s early marginal new highs, just above the 924.00-926.00, obvious resistance areas, from where the markets made a U turn, has probably placed a temporary top after four days where the indexes bounced from their most recent lows. Those levels and the 918.50 and 908.50 areas will continue to play an important role during the next sessions and weeks.
The end of quarter is over and despite the sell off from the early highs, the 908.50 level was well defended and the markets bounced lately in the session, so if they will continue to try and push lower resuming the downtrend, another down session may be seen today; in that case we could call a short term top. There is not confirmation yet that this is the case, and the rest of the week could show more sideways action between the 908.50 and 925.00 areas.
So until the SP trades back above the 925.00 level we can assume that in the best case the markets will continue to build a base and rally later in the summer and in the worst case, once the SP closes below 908.50, a new low below the 890.00 area with possible support around 878.00 may be seen, .
There are a bunch of economic reports to get released during the sessions, and volumes are very light in front of the holiday, so be careful as the markets may show some erratic moves.
For today’s trading session, if yesterday’s sell off was only a one day event, markets MUST rally today, but a second negative session will probably see more downside follow through during the rest of the week. Try to maintain a long position above 918.50 but be careful if the SP starts to trade below it






TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 917.00-918.00 on the SP, 1481.00-1483.00 on the Nasdaq and 508.80-509.60 on the Russell, Nothing good happens all the time that the markets are trading below them, if those get exceeded look for some short covering that may push the markets back up to 920.50-921.25 on the SP, 1490.00-1491.00 on the Nasdaq and 511.90-512.50 on the Russell. Those were the last highs before yesterday’s sell off, so they have to get exceeded with good momentum in order to give another try to 925.00-926.00 on the SP, 1501.00-1503.00 on the Nasdaq and 514.60-516.50 on the Russell

Initial support at 913.00-912.00 on the SP, 1473.00-1471.00 on the Nasdaq and 506.00-504.80 on the Russell. Those areas on the Nasdaq are very important, so if that markets holds there and lead a good rebound, the way will be up, but if those fail, look for some weakness pushing the indexes down to 910.00-908.00 on the SP, 1466.00-1464.00 on the Nasdaq and 502.40-501.20 on the Russell. I don’t have to explain the importance of the 908.00 level on the SP, it is the key to maintain that index in a solid position, so trading below it will probably give control to the bears and push the markets down to 905.00-902.50 on the SP, 1460.50-1358.00 on the Nasdaq and 499.10-497.80 on the Russell. GOOD LUCK.

















Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

arturo1

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 06-July-2009


Weekly Initial claims down to 614K, Continuing Claims at 6.7 million; Unemployment rate at 9.5% and Nonfarm Payrolls down 467K; U.S. factory orders rise in May. Markets sold off strongly in front of the holiday.

WEEKLY PIVOTS FOR WEEK ENDING 10-July-2009
R3 940.25
R2 916.50
R1 910.75
PP 904.75
S1 881.25
S2 869.00
S3 845.75


ECONOMIC DATA
None
WEEKLY RECAP
Despite that the markets traded with ultra light volumes during the week, and that the action seemed to hold intact a bullish sideways patter, markets sold off strongly in front of the Independence Day. Monday’s trading session kecked on the green, markets opened higher, the daily lows were posted early in the morning and the close was in positive territory, during the session, the expected sentence for Bernie Madoff was dictated, 150 years in jail. The VIX made its lowest level since the Lehman’s collapse signaling an excess of complacency in the markets, for the day, the SP added 7.25 points and settled at 921.25, the Nasdaq ended higher by 4.75 points closing the session at 1481.50 and the Russell gained 1.70 points at 508.00. Tuesday’s trading session was a reversal of the previous day, markets opened high but after failing to hold above the 924.00-926.00 short term resistance areas they sold off but managed to bounce into the end of the session, the early rally was based on global optimism that the worst of the crises my be behind us, a report about housing prices showed that value continues to go down but a lower pace, also the Chicago PMI increased to 39.9 during June and Consumer Confidence declined as job outlook continues to look gloomy. By the close, the SP lost 5.75 points and settled at 915.50, the Nasdaq lost 5.25 points ending the session at 1476.25 and the Russell ended lower by less than a point at 507.20. The Dow lost 82 points finishing the day at 8447. Wednesday’s trading session saw a new marginal high on the SP, but once more, it failed to hold the gains, volumes continued to be light and the economic reports were mixed, the ADP Employment fell 473K in June; ISM Index rose to 44.8, the highest since last August and Pending Home sales rose for the fourth consecutive month, the day the SP gained 3.75 points and settled at 919.25 and the Nasdaq ended higher by 2.50. Thursday’s pre holiday session was ugly; the economic reports in which the monthly unemployment data for the month of June was included were less than pink, the Weekly Initial claims were down to 614K, Continuing Claims at 6.7 million; Unemployment rate at 9.5% and Nonfarm Payrolls down 467K; U.S. factory orders rose in May, but markets sold off strongly opening the way for lower prices into the next few sessions, the SP lost 26.00 points and settled at 893.25, the Nasdaq lost 33.50 finishing the session at 1445.25 and the Russell gave back 17.00 points closing at 497.30. The Dow also sold odd strongly losing 223 points finishing the holiday shortened week at 8280.


THURSDAY’S MARKET
After trading lower during the Globex session and once the unemployment numbers get released, the E-mini SP pushed down strongly to new nightly lows as they extended their losses. The E-mini SP started the session at 907.00 and quickly pushed lower to down to 904.50, unable to rebound the index continued to trade under pressure tested 900.50 and then 897.25. The sell off dried and the index tried to bounce, but after testing the 900.50 area it pushed to new lows at 896.25. Like in the previous sessions, once the move was done the markets traded in a narrow range, this time near the lows. Late on the session and unable to rebound, bears presses to new lows, for the day, the SP lost 26.00 points and settled at 893.25, the Nasdaq lost 33.50 finishing the session at 1445.25 and the Russell gave back 17.00 points closing at 497.30. The Dow also sold odd strongly losing 223 points finishing the holiday shortened week at 8280.


MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Last Friday I wrote: “However a wide range downside session could give way to some selling, and this can happen during today, once the unemployment numbers get released. I wrote on one of my previous week reports, that the job market numbers are a lagging indicator, and that even if the data is bad and the initial reaction is negative, markets may be able to rebound; I don’t see those changing unless a wide range negative session shows some follow through. Today, most of the economic numbers will get released before the opening, then later the Factory Orders numbers will be out, so the early action is what traders will be expecting and then they will leave for the long weekend; if you don’t catch the early move, just relax and start your vacation. Markets will be closed tomorrow.”



After struggling during the first three days of the week to move upward, Thursday, the index posted a strong sell off and a close near the daily lows. The fact that the strong move happened with low volumes and on the last trading session before the holiday extended weekend may not give to it the validity as it would have occurred during a normal week. That does not means that “it does not shows on the charts” but many time happens that pre holiday moves get reversed during the next trading session. However, the move was very strong and could give way to one or two sessions where it gets consolidated and then move downward to a new low, or just continued to push lower finally showing some follow through.
During the past sessions, before the June unemployment numbers which get released last Thursday gave way to the sell off, I wrote that this is a lagging indicator and I would be expecting that even if it gives way to a strong sell off, as it happened, the markets may be able to rebound, so, if the markets will act in this form, and rally during the week, the SP will have to hold above the 877.00 area, a few lows were seen down there during May, so even if last Thursday’s sell off show some follow through I will expect the SP to bounce from that area.
With this I mean that the index which has been trading in a sideways pattern could show more downside momentum in the short time and even fail to hold the next support levels, but if Friday’s sell off founds support at “the obvious” a sideways pattern, another test of the recent highs and then the resume of the sideways pattern and then a rally to the 1000.00 level will be the most probable scenario for the coming months and rest of the year.
For our short term trading scenario, if the markets are trading on the green, stay with the trend, look for strong support around the 878.00-877.00 on the SP, and be careful if the Nasdaq starts to trade below the 1432.00 area.



TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 896.00-898.00 on the SP, 1449.50-1452.00 on the Nasdaq and 499.10-500.90 on the Russell, if the markets will reverse part of last Friday’s loses these areas will have to get exceeded with good momentum and reach the next levels at 900.50-903.00 on the SP, 1456.00-1458.00 on the Nasdaq and 502.60-503.90 on the Russell. Trading above them will certainly give momentum to the move as the indexes reach the key levels at 906.50-908.00 on the SP, 1464.00-1466.00 on the Nasdaq and 508.00-509.40 on the Russell.

There is good support at 890.50-888.50 on the SP, 1440.50-1438.00 on the Nasdaq and 595.50-493.70 on the Russell. Failing there may result in a test of the most recent intraday lows at 885.50-884.00 on the SP, 1433.00-1431.50 on the Nasdaq and 491.60-490.00 on the Russell. A double bottom there will give the markets the chance to bounce and keep the recent sideways pattern intact, in particular, those areas have been pivotal on the Nasdaq, so if the markets trade lower look for a test of 879.50-878.00 on the SP, 1425.00-1424.00 on the Nasdaq and 486.60-485.20 on the Russell. I assume the SP will bounce from these levels, at least the first time they get tested. GOOD LUCK


















Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com

arturo1

DAILY TRADING ADVISORY 07-July-2009


U.S. service industries, ISM increase to 47, higher than forecasted and the best level in nine months, but markets stood under pressure during all the session but bounce into the end of the day.



ECONOMIC DATA
None


YESTERDAY’S MARKET
Markets traded with losses during the Globex session, the E-mini SP started the day at 885.00, pulled back to 883.75 and bounced to 890.00, then, the index pulled back a couple of points and the rebound reached 891.00. Leaded by the weakness in the Nasdaq the SP pulled back to 887.25 and broke down strongly testing the Globex lows 882.00. After holding, the index bounced to 888.00, pulled back to 885.50, held and tested the 888.00 area once more. After another attempt to push lower that reached 885.00, the SP slowly made its way up to 891.25. The double top gave way to another setback but the move did not gain the downside momentum and the SP held many attempts to trade below 888.00 giving way to another bounce. The SP reached 891.75, and backed off to 887.25. Once more the index held and shorts started to cover pushing the markets up, the SP traded at a new marginal high above the Globex high and with short covering managed to press higher reaching 896.25 into the close. For the day, the SP added2.25 points and settled at 895.50, the Nasdaq lost 4.25 points closing the day at 1441.00 and the Russell ended lower by 6.30 points at 493.60. The Dow managed to close on the green, up 44 points at 8324.



MARKET COMMENTARY AND OUTLOOK
Yesterday I wrote: “Thursday, the index posted a strong sell off and a close near the daily lows. The fact that the strong move happened with low volumes and on the last trading session before the holiday extended weekend may not give to it the validity as it would have occurred during a normal week. That does not means that “it does not shows on the charts” but many time happens that pre holiday moves get reversed during the next trading session. However, the move was very strong and could give way to one or two sessions where it gets consolidated and then move downward to a new low, or just continued to push lower finally showing some follow through. During the past sessions, before the June unemployment numbers which get released last Thursday gave way to the sell off, I wrote that this is a lagging indicator and I would be expecting that even if it gives way to a strong sell off, as it happened, the markets may be able to rebound, so, if the markets will act in this form, and rally during the week, the SP will have to hold above the 877.00 area, a few lows were seen down there during May, so even if last Thursday’s sell off show some follow through I will expect the SP to bounce from that area.”


Markets traded under pressure for most of the session, however, support held, the early lows were not broken and the indexes bounced into the close. I mentioned that after last Thursday sell off, a strong reversal or some bearish consolidation could happen, the ranges were narrow and the indexes traded once more with very low volumes. It seems that the indexes may be able to continue with this pullback, yesterday’s lows, do not seem to have scared too much the long traders, and it will very unusual to place a short term low with such light volumes. It is not that I waiting for a capitulation, but for a low to be in place more volume has to be seen. Also the range on the SP was only 14.25 points and it has to get extended.
The odds favor a trend session, which means that once the daily highs or lows are posted, the markets take a direction showing limited pullbacks or bounces.
I mentioned that last Thursday’s sell off, even with some intraday follow through could have been a pre holiday move that gets reversed the next day, it did not happen yesterday; maybe because the early move was negative and the trading volumes did not produce the momentum for a strong rebound.
So under this uncertainty, and keeping in mind that we could have a trend session, let’s wait for the next 40 minutes to see if lower prices get reversed, in particular from the 886.25-885.00 area, but also wait for a failure around the 898.00 area, if the market is weak that level may hold.
Keep in mind that the Dow showed strong support around the 8200, and that important level will have to get violated if the direction is to the downside, the same is true at 1432.00 on the NQ. Trading below them could indicate a wide range downward session.





TODAY’S SESSION
There is resistance at 896.00-898.00 on the SP, 1449.50-1452.00 on the Nasdaq and 494.10-495.00 on the Russell, if the markets are weak those areas may not get exceeded by much, but if buyers appear, look for a bit more of upside that pushes the indexes up to 900.50-903.00 on the SP, 1448.00-1449.50 on the Nasdaq and 496.00-497.20 on the Russell. Trading above them will place short under extreme pressure and a test of the key levels at 905.50-908.00 on the SP, 1454.00-1455.00 on the Nasdaq and 499.20-500.80 on the Russell may be seen before the session is over.

There is support just below yesterday’s settlements at 894.00-892.00 on the SP, 1436.00-1435.00 on the Nasdaq and 491.20-490.00 on the Russell. If those fail, look for some buying around 890.00-888.75 on the SP, 1428.50-1427.50 on the Nasdaq and 486.40-486.10 on the Russell. If those fail, the last important areas to defend by the bulls are at 886.25-885.00 on the SP, 1415.50-1413.00 on the Nasdaq and 482.40-481.50. Breaking below them could indicate a wide range down session, but the first time the SP test the 877.00 it may hold. GOOD LUCK


















Futures and options trading have large potential rewards, but also LARGE POTENTIAL RISK. You must be aware of the risks and be willing to accept them in order to invest in the futures and options markets. Don't trade with money you can't afford to lose. This is neither a solicitation nor an offer to buy or sell futures or options. No representation is being made that any account will or is likely to achieve profits or losses similar to those discussed in this document. The past performance of any trading system or methodology is not necessarily indicative of futures results.
DAY TRADING INVOLVES HIGH RISK AND YOU CAN LOSE A LOT OF MONEY.
Every effort has been made to accurately represent all of our products and it's potential. As with any business there is a risk of loss of capital and there is no guarantee that you will earn any money. The financial markets are risky .Investing is risky. The foregoing has been prepared only and solely for informational purposes and is not a solicitation or an offer to buy or sell any security, option or futures contract. Opinion is based on historical research but there is not guarantee that futures results will be profitable. We are not advocating or recommending trading futures and our services, notes and entry and exit prices to the markets only reflects our opinion an a manner how markets can be traded. We mention many indexes like the S&P, NASDAQ, Russell, Dow Jones as T-Bonds only because they are the most known and liquid markets, and not because we recommend in any way to be traded.
You can lose more than your initial investment.
We are not Brokers, Registered Trading Advisors, Registered Investment Advisors or Commodity Trading Advisors. All the material contained here or in any communication is only for information purposes and part of our thoughts and personal conclusions.
Copyright © by theminitrade.com