Trend following not working on my 7,000 backtests !

This is a discussion on Trend following not working on my 7,000 backtests ! within the Trading Systems forums, part of the Methods category; Originally Posted by qwertyuiop1 May I ask (if not being too cheeky that is), given yours is a fully mechanical ...

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Old Oct 30, 2017, 4:00pm   #17
 
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Originally Posted by qwertyuiop1 View Post
May I ask (if not being too cheeky that is), given yours is a fully mechanical system, what are the rules you use?
And what is the expectancy in terms of R?
Unfortunately I have worked very hard on my system and I am not about to publish my rules unless I am payed 8 figures :-) But I can tell you, I found it by back testing any system I can think of or find for free (or small amount of money for books for example) and based on those failed back test and observations I came up with mine... Basically you are at the begging of your journey, you did test one, it didn't work, so you just have to go and do it again for another...
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"If you don't find a way to make money while you sleep, you will work until you die." Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.

My number 1 trading rule: EDUCATE YOURSELF!

Before you trade even single penny on the stock market, please spend the time and educate yourself by back testing different trading strategies and ideas - go to eBay and search for "historical stock market data", you can buy 20 years of data for less than $100 - that's all you need to start.
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Old Oct 30, 2017, 4:06pm   #18
 
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Originally Posted by Quantt View Post
Unfortunately I have worked very hard on my system and I am not about to publish my rules unless I am payed 8 figures :-) But I can tell you, I found it by back testing any system I can think of or find for free (or small amount of money for books for example) and based on those failed back test and observations I came up with mine... Basically you are at the begging of your journey, you did test one, it didn't work, so you just have to go and do it again for another...
In all your backtesting would you share ANY other system (that you don't use, and won't ever use) that you found to have even a modest positive expectancy?

Please
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Old Oct 30, 2017, 4:10pm   #19
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Originally Posted by qwertyuiop1 View Post
I have lost all confidence on trend following.
You are doing it wrong. Back testing is 100% guaranteed to make demo pips. Just try some different parameters until you get the magic numbers.

But personally, I don't see much point. Demo pips can't be used for buying lunch. With all that back testing, you will surely get hungry and need lunch. If lunch doesn't pay for itself, then what's the point of all that effort ?

Magic numbers don't work in the real market. Although I am willing to change my mind on evidence.
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Old Oct 30, 2017, 4:37pm   #20
 
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Originally Posted by piphoe View Post
In all your backtesting would you share ANY other system (that you don't use, and won't ever use) that you found to have even a modest positive expectancy?

Please
Frankly I plan to use most of my systems in one way or another and I am always looking for more...

The main reason is they are either too close to one another or completely different (which is an edge on itself to have uncorrelated market strategies)

Also no offense guys and galls, but we are competing with one another on a daily basis, so I cannot tell you even the systems that do not work, just because this will save you the time and effort and by the process of elimination you might discover some of my systems (great minds think alike) and the increase money flow will disrupt my earnings...

Sorry about that... if you want to discus wild carp river fishing tactics, I have nothing to hide there since we are all competing on a different venues, so I can open another topic about it...
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"If you don't find a way to make money while you sleep, you will work until you die." Warren Buffett, CEO of Berkshire Hathaway.

My number 1 trading rule: EDUCATE YOURSELF!

Before you trade even single penny on the stock market, please spend the time and educate yourself by back testing different trading strategies and ideas - go to eBay and search for "historical stock market data", you can buy 20 years of data for less than $100 - that's all you need to start.
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Old Oct 30, 2017, 4:41pm   #21
 
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That's ok Q, I had to TRY you know
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Old Oct 30, 2017, 4:49pm   #22
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That's ok Q, I had to TRY you know
Why not buy market data from someone and resell on ebay for $9.98, cheaper than the other guy ? There must be money in it. With all the free marketing you get on the internet that systems work, you can't lose.

It's not a degree you need pip. It's the ability to see where value can be extracted.
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Old Oct 30, 2017, 5:13pm   #23
 
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Why not buy market data from someone and resell on ebay for $9.98, cheaper than the other guy ? There must be money in it. With all the free marketing you get on the internet that systems work, you can't lose.

It's not a degree you need pip. It's the ability to see where value can be extracted.

Find value and exploit it. That's beautiful, poignant this is what Bezos did in mid 90's selling books online. A great article on him read over weekend, can't find it to share here but I think that's why your sentiment just resonated with me.
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Old Oct 30, 2017, 5:29pm   #24
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Find value and exploit it. That's beautiful, poignant this is what Bezos did in mid 90's selling books online. A great article on him read over weekend, can't find it to share here but I think that's why your sentiment just resonated with me.
Well, the real reason he succeeded was because he was a superb merchant. Ebay preceded amazon but failed to achieve a success anywhere on the same scale. People who started ebay were idiot merchants and remained little people.

Unfortunately to extract money from markets, you have to be a good merchant. It helps to be born as one. Your pizza shop friend is one for instance. I am unconvinced they can teach you to be more than a mediocre merchant in a course if the needed genes are not present.
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