Automatic Pattern Search

This is a discussion on Automatic Pattern Search within the Trading Software forums, part of the Commercial category; Has anyone read about Ed Seykota from Market Wizards? He was one of the first and still only using complete ...

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Old Nov 1, 2006, 4:51pm   #33
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Has anyone read about Ed Seykota from Market Wizards? He was one of the first and still only using complete mechanical trading systems. Considering he built his first profitable one in the early 80's it probably only consited of moving averages and some sort of trailing stop.

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Old Nov 8, 2006, 3:51pm   #34
 
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Originally Posted by dmilong
I think so Ron. I'm working on an algorithm that calculates the probability of a winner at any given time based on the frequency and number of generated patterns by APS. It isn't the Holy Grail but I'm sure it'll get close enough.

Jim
Hello Jim, I have APS (version 4.9) and it has worked well for me but I need to get to the next stage of organising the output of the program and calculating probabilities along the same lines you suggested. If you are still around please send me a message to discuss possible cooperation. I have realized APS has many capabilities I am not utilising at the moment.

Alex
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Old Nov 9, 2006, 4:15pm   #35
 
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Originally Posted by dmilong
Initial results for S&P 500 futures tell me that a good number of patterns pass the forward test. Jim
Hi Jim,
I see you are testing the program out on the S&P 500. Please could you say about how often does the program throw up a buy/sell signal on say <3 consecutive losers. Would it be about 1 a month or 1 a week perhaps ? and is the profitable trade ratio about 70% ( as per the sales blurb ) ?
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Old Nov 14, 2006, 3:43pm   #36
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Hi Jim,
I see you are testing the program out on the S&P 500. Please could you say about how often does the program throw up a buy/sell signal on say <3 consecutive losers. Would it be about 1 a month or 1 a week perhaps ? and is the profitable trade ratio about 70% ( as per the sales blurb ) ?
HI Pat,
I'm through with the testing now and I.m using the program to position trade the e-mini. I used the S&P 500 to test the program because of the longer history but afterwards I got good results for the e-mini. I get 2 to 3 signals per week on the average but on certain occasions I get many more on a given close for the open of the next day. This allows me to do some statistical analysis based on the signal quantity and frequency.

Profitable trade ratio: if you noticed the program has a calculator of this ratio given the profit factor you want and the profit target/stop loss (the formula is also given in the support page of the website, see: http://www.tradingpatterns.com/Suppo...s.html#usefaq4 ). You can use the calculated ratio in the search for patterns. When I use larger stops then the profit targets I still get patterns with a ratio of 80% or more. I've done searches for a total four combinations of targets/stops and I added all the patterns I liked in a trading system in APS system tracking. After the market close I update the data file for the e-mini and I run system tracking to see whether new signals are there for the next day. You can play with many different strategies based on the number of new signals and signals with open positions. I'm now trying to figure out a good strategy.

I got an email from Tradingpatterns yesterday about a new article by Mike Harris that discusses the main purpose of the program:

http://www.tradingpatterns.com/synthesis.pdf

I think it's very interesting.

Jim
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Old Nov 14, 2006, 4:39pm   #37
 
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Thanks very much Jim. An interesting article too.
I was trying to decide between APS and Trade Decision. Not quite decided yet though.
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Old Nov 16, 2006, 1:19pm   #38
 
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Well I'm on board now. I think it will take a while to figure out how it works. I've got metastock files that need converting too. Hope the grey matter is up to it.
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Old Nov 17, 2006, 6:42pm   #39
 
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Finally figured out the data bit. Now for the rest !
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Old Nov 19, 2006, 9:07pm   #40
 
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Finally figured out the data bit. Now for the rest !
Pat,

You can convert a number of metastock generated ascii text files all at once. I'm sure you figured that out.

I spent a good part of this morning converting files too. It's pain but worths the trouble. If you run into problems or need help let me know.

Alex
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