ES Trading

This is a discussion on ES Trading within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; The markets appear to be treading water until the end of US election. I am still holding firm with my ...

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Old Oct 26, 2012, 10:15am   #121
 
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Market Update

new_trader started this thread The markets appear to be treading water until the end of US election. I am still holding firm with my end of 2012 target for the ES @ 1500 and correspondingly a Gold target @ $US1830. Short term this looks like a shakeout of the weak hands and I suspect the lows are near. I would add to my gold position around $US1650 - 1680 if it gets there.

The US GDP figures are released today, but just like any ‘NEWS’ I think it’s just a sideshow to the US elections as the Central Planners have essentially made their intent clear, which is Financial Repression until ‘something’ happens. I will be watching for a move higher to a short term target on the ES@ 1410-1411 and Gold @ $US1715, probably just before the GDP figures are released or just after.


As always, I could be wrong but so far the market hasn’t delivered any real surprises.







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Old Oct 26, 2012, 11:18am   #122
 
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Central Planning & the phoney economy

new_trader started this thread Firings Highest Since 2010 as Ford to Dow Face Slump

Firings Highest Since 2010 as Ford to Dow Face Slump - Bloomberg

Quote:
Ford Motor Co. (F) and Dow Chemical Co. (DOW) joined a growing number of companies firing thousands of workers as sluggish U.S. growth and Europe’s deepening recession lead to a persisting slump in sales.

Thank goodness the Central Planners were able to defeat that nasty deflation bogeyman they keep telling us about....more debasement to follow...






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Old Oct 26, 2012, 1:12pm   #123
 
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Hope through the next generation

new_trader started this thread Thanks to Ron Paul, there is hope through the next generation. They actually ‘get it’ whilst the dumbasses of my generation and later (You’ll see a lot of them here posting nonsense about the brilliance of Central Bank policies and fiat money) have been too brainwashed by the Central Planners to know any better...









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Old Oct 31, 2012, 9:40am   #124
 
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Update

new_trader started this thread I only added Physical Silver via an ETF to my portfolio this week. The disruption to the markets caused by Hurricane Sandy may have impacted the timing of my purchases slightly. This wouldn’t ordinarily be a problem, but I am on holiday for a couple of weeks from the 5th November and my aim is to take a real holiday from everything, including the markets and this journal. I don’t know if I will be able to achieve this though, as the US elections is a big event, although I think I’ll be 10km above the Indian Ocean when the winner is announced...not sure about the timing though...

I would have entered a resting order to buy Gold at $US1675 but the account with my broker will only allow orders for ETC’s that are good for 1 day. Not a big deal. I may place a derivative order with IG index then roll it over to Physical.

If you are interested, this is what I am going to see...although I will be staying in Port Douglas!

Eclipse 2012 - Cairns Great Barrier Reef Official Tourism Website









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Old Nov 2, 2012, 9:19am   #125
 
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The U.S Election

new_trader started this thread This might be my last journal entry for a few weeks:

If Barack Obama wins the US Election, Gold will most likely rally almost immediately because he is a big Government President. "We have a choice between Romney Economics and an economy built to last."
1st target: $US1775

If Mitt Romney wins the US Election, Gold will most likely react almost immediately because he is perceived to be small Government President. "Part four is to cut the deficit, reducing the size of government and getting the national debt under control so that America remains a place where businesses want to open up shop and hire."
Target: $US1650


I have submitted a resting order with IG Index to BUY Gold @ $US1650.00 in the unlikely event of Mitt Romney winning. I think the reaction will only be temporary. If Obama wins, I have enough gold to keep me satisfied for the rally to the next level.

ESZ is currently @ 1422.50 and I still have an EOY 2012 target @ 1500.

The Non-Farm payrolls are released today. I will be watching for a short-term reaction on the ESZ of 10 points (-10) around the time of release. So far this week, gold has been leading the stock market and it is signalling a decline. However, there is also the possibility of a gold rally to US$1721-1722. Whatever the case, I still think that any ‘NEWS’ is a sideshow to the main event i.e. The US Election.

As always, my figuring could be wrong so DO YOUR OWN RESEARCH!








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Old Nov 2, 2012, 7:43pm   #126
 
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Re: The U.S Election

new_trader started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by new_trader View Post


ESZ is currently @ 1422.50 and I still have an EOY 2012 target @ 1500.

The Non-Farm payrolls are released today. I will be watching for a short-term reaction on the ESZ of 10 points (-10) around the time of release.


ESZ @ 1412.25

This was the 10 point reaction I was watching for, it came a little later than expected.


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Old Nov 3, 2012, 9:43am   #127
 
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Central Planning Nonsense!

new_trader started this thread The Central Planners keep touting their idiotic propoganda that only a modern economist could buy.

Fed’s Williams Says Bond Buying Will Spur Growth
Fed’s Williams Says Bond Buying Will Spur Growth


Quote:
“Our policy measures are having the desired effects,” Williams said today in remarks prepared for a speech in Salt Lake City. “We have substantial scope to use monetary policy to stimulate the economy without creating too much upward pressure on prices.”

Meanwhile, in the REAL WORLD.


Downturn in UK manufacturing accelerates at start of Q4 2012
http://www.markiteconomics.com/Marki....aspx?ID=10257


Quote:
Key points:

●UK Manufacturing PMI down for second month running
●Sharper falls in output and new orders, as export demand remains weak
Cost-caution leads to job losses, stock depletion and lower purchasing

Quote:
Summary:
The UK manufacturing sector saw overall operating conditions deteriorate for the sixth successive month in October. Companies continued to face a combination of declining export sales, weaker domestic demand and rising cost pressures.

Quote:
The rate of reduction in input buying volumes accelerated sharply and was one of the fastest signalled during the past three-and-a-half years. Meanwhile, margins were squeezed further, as cost inflation hit a seven-month peak at a time when pricing power remained muted.

What do our Central Planners keep telling us? The VERY OPPOSITE! They tell us that monetary inflation will BOOST exports and CREATE employment! I wrote about this happening a few months ago:

Quote:
Originally Posted by new_trader View Post
Greater motivation hinges on whether or not you believe rising prices are a consequence of inflating the money supply. This then takes us back to the original discussion on the interest rates Governments pay on their bonds. If investors suspect that a Government is over inflating they will demand higher interest rates on the bonds. Don’t bother replying because I already know you disagree so it’s just a moot point.

My main point about shadow stats is that they earn a living by charging customers money for their statistical analysis, so if it is inaccurate or unreliable, shadow stats will go out of business. If the Governments statistics are inaccurate or unreliable, other people go out of business. Who will hold the Government to account? The average person doesn’t even understand inflation let alone bother to keep track of it.

The point about the CPI and PPI brings me back again to whether or not you believe Governments are creating inflation (inflating the money supply) and which planet I live on. I contend that I live on planet earth and that Governments are massively inflating. The fact that some producers are absorbing the inflation in reduced margins means that the inflation hasn’t fully filtered through to consumers yet and therefore won’t show up in the CPI. Producers may be absorbing inflation in other ways like shrinking packaging or a reduction in quality. These things don’t show up in CPI but is still evidence of inflation. I assert that inflation will eventually become too high for producers to absorb. However, it doesn’t escape my attention that other countries are experiencing higher inflation than reported in the U.K and the U.S...two of the biggest debtor countries on the planet...surprise surprise...

Anyway, I’m not debating this any further. This is now a case of wait and see.



The debasement of fiat money WILL continue because the Central Planners will tell us that the weakness in the economy is the result of a strong currency!






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Old Nov 4, 2012, 9:17pm   #128
 
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Re: ES Trading

new_trader started this thread This will now definitely be my last entry for the next 2 weeks or so. I will be officially on holiday tomorrow and will do my best to stay away from the markets for that time....possibly...I will be watching the opening tonight, so even this post might be premature!

If my figuring is correct, the market is near the bottom. I am forecasting one last dip into the 1390’s and then a reversal. I have placed a resting order with IG index to BUY the DEC S&P500 future @ 1394.00 with a guaranteed 7 point stop ~1387.50. If it is filled I will be holding it until expiry. I have also amended my resting order to BUY Gold spot @ $US1630.00. No stops on the gold position as it will be rolled over to physical if filled. I consider these to be ‘Hail Mary’ trades because I don’t trade this way, I normally only open a trade when sitting in front of my screen watching the market live.

My figuring could be 100% wrong but I can only act according to my own experience and judgement. I advise you to do your own research.




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Old Nov 22, 2012, 11:40am   #129
 
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Eclipse 2012

new_trader started this thread I am back from my Eclipse 2012 holiday and I can't really say I'm glad to be back...I was in paradise and now I'm in cold and grey England..I have attached some pictures I took. It was a very early morning eclipse and although there were clouds in the horizon it was a truly awe inspiring experience to see a total eclipse live, it my first one ever. I can now full understand and appreciate why people become eclipse chasers. Picture 004 is the total eclipse which I took near the end as I wanted to see most of it with my naked eyes rather than via a LCD image. They aren't the best pictures because it was taken with a mobile phone.

As for the markets, I did manage to avoid checking on a daily basis (hard as it was) but every now and again I caught up on the daily close and especially the US election results. I knew my S&P trade didn't work out early on but I am still sticking with my end 2012 target of 1500. Gold made a rally after the election with Obama winning, I am still bullish on gold and sticking to my first target of $US1775.





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Old Nov 30, 2012, 10:40am   #130
 
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Re: ES Trading

new_trader started this thread After studying the markets last weekend I decided to place another standing order to go long the DEC 12 SPX 500 contract with IG index @1391.00

So my current trade situation is:

DEC 12 SPX 500
28/11/12: BUY @ 1391.00 (filled)
28/11/12: Partially closed @ 1406.63
28/11/12: Stop @1393.00

09:40 Market currently @ 1415/1416

I partially closed the trade because according to my figuring the market is indicating a reversal which is likely to take out my stop @ 1393.00 probably sometime next week. If that happens I will be looking to go long again and hold until expiry. I will be holding this current trade until expiry or until my stop is hit.

I need to study the market more so I can get fully back in sync with it especially since my holiday, but I look to adding to my position/s as the year end draws near. The U.S fiscal cliff is nothing more than another utterly insignificant sideshow, distraction, pantomime performed by clueless Politicians...






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Old Dec 4, 2012, 2:50pm   #131
 
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Re: ES Trading

new_trader started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by new_trader View Post
I partially closed the trade because according to my figuring the market is indicating a reversal which is likely to take out my stop @ 1393.00 probably sometime next week.
Gold has sold off again and I suspect the stock market will follow. As usual, the U.S fiscal cliff pantomime is upsetting the dumb money and providing a good opportunity for the smart money to buy. I will be looking to start accumulating more gold below US$1650 if it manages to breakdown that far. Below $1650 is a buying opportunity and below $1600 is a gift!


13:50 - Gold @ 1695.00
13:50 - ESZ @ 1407.00







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Old Dec 11, 2012, 9:24am   #132
 
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Re: Central Planning Nonsense!

new_trader started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by new_trader View Post
The Central Planners keep touting their idiotic propoganda that only a modern economist could buy.

Fed’s Williams Says Bond Buying Will Spur Growth
Fed’s Williams Says Bond Buying Will Spur Growth



Meanwhile, in the REAL WORLD.


Downturn in UK manufacturing accelerates at start of Q4 2012
http://www.markiteconomics.com/Marki....aspx?ID=10257


What do our Central Planners keep telling us? The VERY OPPOSITE! They tell us that monetary inflation will BOOST exports and CREATE employment! I wrote about this happening a few months ago:






The debasement of fiat money WILL continue because the Central Planners will tell us that the weakness in the economy is the result of a strong currency!






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King Sees Risk of More Currency Management as Imbalances Persist
King Sees Risk of More Currency Management as Imbalances Persist - Bloomberg

Quote:
Since their agreement on stimulus in 2009, “the G-20 has gone backward since then, and there has been no agreement on the need for working together to achieve some element of rebalancing the world economy,” King said in a speech in New York late yesterday. “My concern is that in 2013 we’ll see the growth of actively managed exchange rates as an alternative to the use of domestic monetary policy.”
What did you expect Mr.King moron? This has been my concern for years, and can you believe that there are dumbasses who think that somehow this is actually a massive advantage!!









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Old Dec 11, 2012, 4:18pm   #133
 
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Re: ES Trading

new_trader started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by new_trader View Post
After studying the markets last weekend I decided to place another standing order to go long the DEC 12 SPX 500 contract with IG index @1391.00

So my current trade situation is:

DEC 12 SPX 500
28/11/12: BUY @ 1391.00 (filled)
28/11/12: Partially closed @ 1406.63
28/11/12: Stop @1393.00

09:40 Market currently @ 1415/1416

I partially closed the trade because according to my figuring the market is indicating a reversal which is likely to take out my stop @ 1393.00 probably sometime next week. If that happens I will be looking to go long again and hold until expiry. I will be holding this current trade until expiry or until my stop is hit.

I need to study the market more so I can get fully back in sync with it especially since my holiday, but I look to adding to my position/s as the year end draws near. The U.S fiscal cliff is nothing more than another utterly insignificant sideshow, distraction, pantomime performed by clueless Politicians...






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I have moved my stop to 1401.00

“Everybody” seems to think tomorrow (12th December) the FED will follow up with Q.E 4 (LOL!) when operation twist ends and I have no real reason to doubt they are right. However, there is still the Fiscal cliff pantomime which will upset the dumb money. If my stop is hit I will look to open a new long in the March Futures contract.

Somehow I suspect the Politicians will come up with a deal before Christmas so they can look like heroes for saving Christmas. Even though I think they are all scum, I doubt they would want to spoil the Holiday season for anyone and drag out the dilemma into the New Year.


15:18 ESZ @ 1429.00/25







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Old Dec 12, 2012, 4:11pm   #134
 
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Central Planning contradictions

new_trader started this thread India Must Tap Household, Temple Gold to Reduce Imports

India Must Tap Household, Temple Gold to Reduce Imports - Bloomberg

Quote:
India’s current-account deficit widened to a record $21.8 billion in the quarter through March and was $16.6 billion in the three months through June, official data show. That’s weakened the rupee 2.3 percent this year to 54.3200 per dollar after an almost 16 percent plunge in 2011. A weaker currency raises import costs and fuels inflation in a country that meets more than 80 percent of its oil requirements from overseas and is the world’s biggest user of gold.

Remember this whenever you hear our Central Planners talk about devaluing the currency to “boost exports” as being the key to economic recovery.







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Old Dec 12, 2012, 7:03pm   #135
 
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Re: ES Trading

new_trader started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by new_trader View Post
After studying the markets last weekend I decided to place another standing order to go long the DEC 12 SPX 500 contract with IG index @1391.00

So my current trade situation is:

DEC 12 SPX 500
28/11/12: BUY @ 1391.00 (filled)
28/11/12: Partially closed @ 1406.63
28/11/12: Stop @1393.00

09:40 Market currently @ 1415/1416

I partially closed the trade because according to my figuring the market is indicating a reversal which is likely to take out my stop @ 1393.00 probably sometime next week. If that happens I will be looking to go long again and hold until expiry. I will be holding this current trade until expiry or until my stop is hit.

I need to study the market more so I can get fully back in sync with it especially since my holiday, but I look to adding to my position/s as the year end draws near. The U.S fiscal cliff is nothing more than another utterly insignificant sideshow, distraction, pantomime performed by clueless Politicians...






13,918

Stop @ 1411.00 where it will remain until hit or expiry of contract.

18:03 ESZ @ 1437.25/50





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