Seeking consistency

This is a discussion on Seeking consistency within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; I'm hoping that by forcing myself to keep a record of my trades (set up, entry, exit and targets) I ...

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Old Mar 31, 2010, 1:00pm   #1
Joined Dec 2009
Seeking consistency

I'm hoping that by forcing myself to keep a record of my trades (set up, entry, exit and targets) I might learn some discipline.

To date my record keeping has only been a cursory glance at my account balances

My trading objective is to identify opportunities for what I would describe as 'medium term' swing trades, by which I mean I am happy to hold an open position or unfulfilled order overnight and over a weekend.

I have been looking mostly at forex dollar pairs (gpb, eur, aud, nzd, cad, chf, and jpy) and eurgpb, eurjpy as well as gold, silver, ftse, dax & SnP.

I am looking at the 4 hourly time-frame for trend direction, using a 20ema and 50sma, I also look at the daily time-frame for its trend but contradiction between the two do not necessarily mean I don't take a trade. I also note the previous week and monthly time-frame swing high and low points and if the last [weekly or monthly] candle printed was an 'obvious' candle stick formation.

If I have a 4 hour trend (an uptrend would be where price is trading at a higher level than the 20ema, which is placed above the 50sma) I would look out for price pull backs to the 20, or between the 20 and 50) to levels which have recently acted as Support / Resistance on the 4 hourly, or lower time-frames. I then look for a candle-stick formation on the 4 hourly or lower time-frame that indicates strong rejection of the lower price level (a hammer or 'pin' being the most obvious example) to trigger me into the [4 hour] trend.

I make sure that I know when the major news releases are, as these often produce trade entries. I also am a member of the FX500Club and read what Christian Tegllund Blaabjerg writes each day in his 'wake up call' at Saxo Bank.

I have suffered many stop out's to date by playing such 'hammer' candles with an order entry at 1 pip above their high and a stop 1 pip below their low, so have recently changed my approach to putting the stop 1 pip below the last 4 hourly swing low. This often means quite large stops in terms of pips, much larger than most traders would accept. I only have a small account and I stake at minimum value per pip and will do so until I can increase my stake size without exceeding 5% of my account balance on one trade.

I hope that my approach makes sense to anyone that takes the time to read it. I will post some charts in time to hopefully clarify. It is said that a picture tells a thousand words.
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Old Mar 31, 2010, 1:41pm   #2
Joined Dec 2009
Aud usd

Leia started this thread Here's my AUD USD 4 hour chart.

The 20ema is the dashed red trend line, which is above the blue dashed 50 sma trend line. The solid red is the daily 20sma, which is below both of the 4 hourly trend lines and also moving upwards.

Price has pulled back to the 4 hourly 50 and the last two candles are bullish (hammers)

The last swing high printed higher than its predecessor (only by 15 pips), but the last swing low was definitely a lower low, and virtually gave back all of the months previous gains.

My concerns at the moment with this chart are:
has the 'cross' indicated the start of a new 4 hourly trend, or is 0.92 50 going to see a double top?
price has climbed a long way in a very short period of time (the lines @ 0.90 80 and 0.91 06 are the 50% and 61.8% fib levels of the last upward move)

So not looking like a set up to me just yet. Christian says it may fall back to 0.90 82 and struggle to surpass 0.92

I'll keep an eye on it though, for a 'deeper' test and rejection

Should there be an entry, potential upside, if the channel I have holds for April & May is the years high at .93 2 in January and then November 09's high at .94
Attached Thumbnails
aud-usd-31.mar.10.jpg  
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Old Mar 31, 2010, 2:09pm   #3
Joined Dec 2009
Dax

Leia started this thread 4 Hour uptrend in place since 17th Feb

Now 'correcting' into the 20 / 50 moving averages area and (solid light blue line) recent support / resistance level and (dashed light blue lines) 50% and 61% fib levels of last upward move

Looks like this afternoons US session (next two or three 4 hour and lower time-frame bars) have the potential to set up for a long position trade

The solid dark blue levels are (thin) daily high and low (yesterday); (medium) weekly high and low; and (thick) monthly high and low. The February monthly low is off bottom of the scale of the current 4 hour chart screen shot

Christian has a 'buy on dips' stance. He quotes cash levels though and my chart is futures so the actual levels are of less significance to me than the direction he's looking at (also long)
Attached Thumbnails
dax-31-mar-10.jpg  
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Old Mar 31, 2010, 2:56pm   #4
Joined Dec 2009
Gpb usd

Leia started this thread The 4 hr has crossed to the long side, however the very strong daily down trend prevents me from wanting to look for long trades.

A short set up (even if it only goes down as far as the 4hourly 20ma) would be of interest, but I am more than happy to leave cable alone for now:

Christian, however, is bullish from 1.5050 for a push to 1.5125 (which means I've missed it)
Attached Thumbnails
gbp-usd-31.mar.10-daily.jpg   gbp-usd-31.mar.10.jpg  
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Old Mar 31, 2010, 3:19pm   #5
Joined Dec 2009
Usd jpy

Leia started this thread 4hr up trend established, however upside potential limited by this years high (very fat light blue line)

If I could get in long around 91.90 to 92.20, I would want to be at break-even if price touched 93.00, in case of a strong bear reaction to an attempt at the year high

Christian states that we may have seen temp top at 93.58. Risk we retrace to 92.85 before next leg higher.

If he's right, I won't see my potential long area anyway
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usd-jpy-31.mar.10.jpg  
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Old Mar 31, 2010, 3:39pm   #6
Joined Dec 2009
Eur gbp

Leia started this thread 4 hr cross to short

a pull back to between 20 & 50 (red & blue dashed trend lines) would also be between 50% and 61.8% fib retracement )light blue dashed lines) of previous down move

watching 1hr and 15m time-frame for a strong indication of a rejection of higher prices

(Saxo don't comment on this pair)
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Old Mar 31, 2010, 3:57pm   #7
Joined Dec 2009
Set up (missed)

Leia started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leia View Post
potential to set up for a long position trade
Here's an example of the kind of thing I am looking for to enter the 4 hour upward trend, by using the lower time-frames.

A 'hammer' candle-stick was printed on the 15 minute time-frame making a double bottom with the candle marking the bottom of the initial fall (that may have been the US open, or some major US news release). The level marked is about 10 pips higher than my support (solid light blue line) at 6105, so the low point could still be lower. I have therefore put my stop at 6100 to allow for this. I have also probably missed the entry altogether as I was busy posting charts here in my attempt to explain what I am looking for, rather than monitoring the Dax situation. I also didn't anticipate seeing a potential turning point for a few more hours. Anyway, I have set an order in case the price dips again and allows an entry
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Old Mar 31, 2010, 4:24pm   #8
Joined Dec 2009
Re: Eur gbp

Leia started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Leia View Post
watching 1hr and 15m time-frame for a strong indication of a rejection of higher prices
Here is a 1 hour shooting star candle, providing a potential set up to get in short

Lets see what happens (entry @ last weeks low: 0.89 18; stop @ 0.89 50 which is 50% fib just beyond the tip of the candle wick and target @ 0.87 50 being the last significant 4 hourly support level)
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eur-gbp-31.mar.10-set-up-entry.jpg  
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