Seeking consistency

stop hit for -60 pips

The euro has hit some new lows and is retracing this morning against many other currencies.

Here's the eur usd 4 hourly chart indicating the 50% and 61.8% fib levels of the previous down move, as a potential short zone

4 hour trend is still up (4hr 20ema above 4hr 50sma and both above above daily 20ema) despite the last three weeks trading printing Lower Lows and Lower Highs

1hr hammer printed, potential entry to 4hr & daily uptrend - lets see (last 1hr hammer entry failed to trigger trade)

Trade not triggered and hammer now invalidated - order cancelled

I haven't seen any potential trade triggers this week at or around the levels I anticipated pull-backs to stop and the price to continue in the direction of the main (4hour and daily) trends. In-fact theses long term trends themselves are looking as though they may be stalling or even reversing.

Anyway, on the daily timeframe I notice that Gold printed a bullish hammer yesterday indicating rejection of its daily 20ema. This has acted as support since the end of March, I am hoping to join the up trend when this candle is triggered and am hoping to hold up to the previous all time highs around 1225. I also have it as 50% retracement of the previous up-swing

FX500 club are similarly bullish (although at different levels) for fundamental as well as technical reasons, conversely Christian at Saxo is bearing for gold today!

Lets see what happens over the next week or two

this pair has been steadily climbing since early March

I have spotted a potential trigger to join it, from a combination of two 1 hour candles at the 61.8% fib pull back level of the previous 4H up move

I would have preferred an entry that was at or near the bottom of my ascending channel, but the moving averages on the Daily (20ema), 4 hourly (20ema & 50sma) and hourly (20 & 50) are all positioned in the correct format for a long trade, with the hourly having seen this morning the 20ema cross up through the hourly 50sma (golden cross) and the 4 hourly 20ema (silver cross)

Lets see what happens

I haven't posted for a while, which with the benefit of hindsight is stupid because my original reason for establishing a blog was to make me think through my trades and ensure that I was following my stated 'rules'.

Needless to say, what was a growing account since the start of this thread has shrunk considerably as I have been attempting to catch the big moves following the rapid fall & bounce on the indices on Thursday 6th May.

So, here's a 'good' trade I entered earlier in the week, having seen the USD CAD Daily time frame turn bullish between the 6th & 13th (20ema crossing up through 50sma and higher low printed), I waited for the 4 hourly timeframe to retrace a little and the four hour 20ema cross up through the 4 hourly 50sma and the daily 20ema (part one of my entry set up) I then waited for a new high on the 4hourly to be reached, then a retrace to between 50% and 61.8% of the 4 hourly up move to look for an entry trigger (long) on the 4hourly or shorter timeframes. This I got at on Tuesday afternoon.

Fortunately I was very lucky and the trade performed well overnight and I was able to move my stop to a breakeven position Wednesday morning.

It has motored upward nicely and I am risking a second entry (I appreciate we may have double topped' with the spike high from May 6th) with the 6am bar this morning being a hammer that looks to me as if it is demonstrating the hourly 20sma is confirmed as support (which it pretty much has been all week)

Lets see what today holds (CAD news at midday & 130pm UK time, with some more good luck luck I'll be able to put my stop to breakeven before the first news, as I would normally expect a re-entry to be offered at the level of the 4H 20ema or even between the 4H 20 ema & H4 50sma, which is considerably lower than this mornings 1H trigger

I have been following gold up for a while as it has been holding in a channel. However, unless today sees a big recovery, my channel (4 hour & daily) has been broken

I have looked back in time and see that there is also a weekly channel, indicating an entry (long) in the next week or so at around 1130. Will it go that low & then 'bounce'?