Seeking consistency

This is a discussion on Seeking consistency within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by Leia Daily and 4 hour trends are indicating long price has retraced 50/61.8% of the previous 4 ...

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Old Sep 11, 2012, 4:50pm   #529
Joined Dec 2009
Re: EUR CAD long

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Originally Posted by Leia View Post
Daily and 4 hour trends are indicating long
price has retraced 50/61.8% of the previous 4 hour up swing and the last 4 hour candle is a 'trigger' (hammer) type, indicating rejection of lower prices at this point in time

Order to enter long @ 1.24 50, stop 1.24 15 (risk = -35pips)
part 1 = 1.25 40
part 2 = 1.27 40
part 3 = trailing stop
orders removed (price has moved too far away (over R1) from entry already
Attached Thumbnails
eur-cad-4-hour-over-r1.gif  
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Old Sep 12, 2012, 10:39am   #530
Joined Dec 2009
Re: AUD JPY short trigger

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Originally Posted by Leia View Post
Order short @ 81.50 with a stop above candle high 81.80 (-30pips risk)

3 part exit 1 at R1 =30pips = 81.20, 2 = recent daily low at 79.80 and 3 = weekly support level at 79.50. Average R (if all positions hit target = 3.7)
Order opened & stop hit for -30 pips
Attached Thumbnails
aud-jpy-stop-hit.gif  
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Old Sep 15, 2012, 1:46pm   #531
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Re: eur usd long targets

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Originally Posted by Leia View Post
Unfortunately my long entry (post #495)@ 1.24 90 was stopped out on a re-tracement. Nevertheless price is looking good for my secondary target @ 1.26 80 at the moment

I have identified a few target areas for longs, which might even offer some counter trend short opportunities, pending price action ' trigger' candles:

1.26 90 prev daily high 26June
1.27 50 prev weekly high 18June and top of ascending 'channel'
1.28 22 descending resistance line from April
or perhaps 1.33 00 to 1.35 00 (no triggers to trade short, just a relentless devaluation of the USD)
Attached Thumbnails
eur-usd-targets.gif  
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Old Sep 15, 2012, 2:25pm   #532
Joined Dec 2009
Trending pairs to watch week commencing 17th Sept

Leia started this thread Summer is over
I notice that significantly more of my charts have aligned indicator direction this week, perhaps due to the end of the summer holidays for the market, or perhaps because of the fundamentals (devaluation of the USD until unemployment there holds below 8%)
What ever the reason(s) I am interested in the technical analysis and my daily and 4 hour moving average indicators are presently aligned on 20 pairs:

long EUR USD 1.29 40 as last week (no decent pull back to enter last week)
long GBP USD 1 61 10 same as EUR
short USD CAD 0.98 00 same as EUR
short USD CHF 0.94 00 same as EUR
long NZD USD @ weekly resistance, potential counter trend short to 82 30 or 81 00
long EUR GOLD
short USD JPY
long GOLD as last week, there was no trigger long last week
long SILVER as last week, I failed to take the trigger @ 33.40, watch 33.60 now
long EUR GBP as EUR, watch for 0.80 30
long EUR AUD above 1.22 25
long EUR JPY watch for 101.00
long EUR CAD
short GBP CHF
long CAD JPY as last week, I didn't take the deeper than 61.8% trigger watch 80.15
long NZD JPY watch for 64.10
long GBP JPY as CAD JPY
long CHF JPY as last week, I failed to take trigger last week. careful now as @ weekly resistance level
short CAD CHF
short AUD NZD as last week EUR, watch for 1.27 35 - care as at weekly support

attached are the two triggers which I failed to take (silver would now be at break even or better if I had chosen to enter at 50% of the trigger as its so big compared to those around it and CHF JPY is at about R3, probably having closed parts 1 and 2, with a trailing stop for part 3). I am not doing this because I 'would have, should have, could have' taken these trades as, with the benefit of hindsight, they would both have been winners, but because they demonstrate that my strategy (trading plan) is valid - providing I trade with it!
Attached Thumbnails
silver-long.gif   chf-jpy-long.gif  
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Old Sep 17, 2012, 7:44am   #533
Joined Dec 2009
NZD and AUD USD counter trend orders

Leia started this thread Both the daily and 4 hour trends are long
However both pairs posted daily trigger (shooting star type) candles on Friday, indicating rejection of higher prices at this time
As noted in my weekly look ahead post, NZD USD is at previous weekly resistance, which may add weight to taking a short position (AUD is at previous daily resistance)
I have entered orders to go short both of these pairs, against the prevailing trends on both of my time-frames, as both are far enough away from their 4 hourly 20ema's (elastic band theory, of re-tracement to the moving average when over extended) to allow me to achieve risk/reward of 1:1 (which is where I take a third of the risk off and move my stop to a breakeven position on the other two thirds). This is also at a higher price than I would be seeking a trigger 'long' to trade with the trend.

Orders are
NZD
entry 0.83 00, stop at 0.83 55 (risk -55pips), split into three parts
target 1 = R1 = 0.82 45
target 2 = recent daily resistance, potential support @ 0.81 50
target 3 trailing stop
AUD
entry 50% back into Fridays daily candle @ 1.05 70, stop 1.06 25 (risk -55 pips)
target 1 = R 1 = 1.05 15
target 2 = 1.04 00
target 3 trailing stop
Attached Thumbnails
nzd-usd-short-daily.gif   aud-usd-short-daily.gif  
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Old Sep 23, 2012, 10:56am   #534
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Re: NZD and AUD USD counter trend orders

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Leia View Post
Orders are
NZD
entry 0.83 00, stop at 0.83 55 (risk -55pips), split into three parts
target 1 = R1 = 0.82 45
target 2 = recent daily resistance, potential support @ 0.81 50
target 3 trailing stop
AUD
entry 50% back into Fridays daily candle @ 1.05 70, stop 1.06 25 (risk -55 pips)
target 1 = R 1 = 1.05 15
target 2 = 1.04 00
target 3 trailing stop
AUD order removed as price moved down very quickly

NZD order opened and t1 achieved
I missed opportunity to move stop to break even on other two positions which are still open
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Old Sep 23, 2012, 11:05am   #535
Joined Dec 2009
watch list for week commencing September 24th

Leia started this thread Pairs aligned between the daily and 4 hourly indicators at the moment are

long EUR USD 1.29 40
long GBP USD 1.62 00, however at weekly swing (2012 high), daily rejection bar printed Friday for counter trend trade
short USD CHF 0.93 40
long USD NZD 0.82 30 (I have counter trend short trades open)
long GOLD 1751, but at weekly resistance daily has printed rejection candle, possible counter trend entry
long SILVER 33.80
long EUR AUD 123.75
long EUR JPY 100.60
long EUR CAD 126.30
long GPB CAD 157.70
long NZD JPY 64.10
long GBP JPY 126.20
long CHF JPY 83.30
short CAD CHF 0.95 76 / 0.96 10
short AUD CHF 0.97 65
short AUD NZD 1.26 50
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Old Sep 24, 2012, 8:24am   #536
Joined Dec 2009
GBP USD counter trend (short )

Leia started this thread Both my daily and 4 hour time frame indicators are long
however price is quite a long way away from the daily moving averages and may retrace toward them (elastic band effect)
The daily candle formation on Friday was a 'shooting star' shape indicating rejection of higher prices at this time
The level rejected is also a significant weekly Swing High from which the 2012 high was made and price subsequently retraced considerably

I have therefore placed a counter trend order (short) 'playing' the daily candle

entry 1.62 10, stop 1.63 10 (risk -100 pips), split into three parts
part 1 target @ R1 = 1.61 10
part 2 target = 1.59 20 (prev. daily resistance, potential support
part 3 target = 1.54 00 (weekly swing Low) but if the order opens and achieves 1.61 10, I will trail the stops for both parts 2 and 3, rather than see the strong uptrend return and take the positions out for breakeven)
Attached Thumbnails
cable-weekly.gif   cable-daily.gif  
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