Seeking consistency

This is a discussion on Seeking consistency within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Hello there Many thanks for your posts. You are right, I haven't really tightened up my thoughts on Risk vs ...

Reply
 
LinkBack Thread Tools Search this Thread
Old Apr 1, 2010, 2:30pm   #11
Joined Dec 2009
Re: Seeking consistency

Leia started this thread Hello there

Many thanks for your posts.

You are right, I haven't really tightened up my thoughts on Risk vs Reward as yet, I understand that if you only take a trade where the potential reward is twice the initial risk, then providing you achieve 1 winner for every three trades you will still break even. However my feelings are that you can't be certain that you will hit your target (for example you may get a strong reversal signal at your reward = risk level, ie 1:1), so you exit and take your profit even though you haven't reached anything like your target. Its still a good (winning) trade. You can be certain that you will hit your stop levels though (unless you move them) I'll keep thinking about this aspect of my trading....

With regard to the point about: has posting up trades helped me follow my rules? Its really too early to say, I only started this yesterday.

To update:
I cancelled my Dax long posted yesterday (off 15 minute hammer / double bottom) as price didn't come back down to the entry level and has subsequently taken out new highs. I also received a FX500club notification for a potential ftse short, which being contrary to my intended trade direction, made me happier for missing my long entry

I have moved my stop to break even on my eurgbp short and am delighted that my 1H set-up entry hammer turned into a 4H hammer too and price is trading lower today.

I'm not to sure about entering new trades this pm, as its a four day bank holiday weekend and NFP tomorrow
Leia is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Apr 6, 2010, 2:04pm   #12
Joined Dec 2009
gbp usd

Leia started this thread I have taken a set up against the daily cable down trend

This is because my 4 hourly trend is up, I have identified the daily 20ema as a support level and the 1 hour time-frame has just printed a bullish engulfing candlestick at the bottom (hopefully) of a downward retrace to the 61.8% 4 hourly fib level

I have taken screen shots showing the daily (arrow indicates recent rejection of the 20ema); 4 hourly (trend, 20ema above 50sma, both slanting upwards, retrace to 61.8% level of last up move) and 1 hourly setup trigger (bullish engulfing / outside) bar. I have also attached a 15 time-frame chart which I took as my first entry point earlier today (hammer, order to enter at break of high), but I cancelled my order when the lower price was taken out

Stop is 1.5120 (risk = 60pips) and Target 1.5380 (reward = 260pips)

Lets see what happens
Leia is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Apr 6, 2010, 2:11pm   #13
Joined Dec 2009
Re: gbp usd daily chart

Leia started this thread daily chart - support found on 20 ema?
Attached Thumbnails
gbp-usd-06-apr.10-set-up-entry-2.1.jpg  
Leia is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Apr 6, 2010, 2:23pm   #14
Joined Dec 2009
Re: gbp usd

Leia started this thread 1 hour chart bullish candle (outside bar / engulfing bar)
Attached Thumbnails
gbp-usd-06-apr.10-set-up-entry-2.jpg  
Leia is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Apr 6, 2010, 2:31pm   #15
Joined Dec 2009
Re: gbp usd

Leia started this thread 4 hour
red dashed (20) moving average above blue dashed (50) ma, both sloping upward. Also above red solid (daily 20)
Price retraced to 61.8% fib of last up move (pale blue dotted lines are the 50% and 61.8% fib levels)
objective is to hold with 4 hourly up trend to test last month (March) highs
Attached Thumbnails
gbp-usd-06-apr.10.jpg  
Leia is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Apr 6, 2010, 2:41pm   #16
Joined Dec 2009
Re: gbp usd

Leia started this thread Initial (later invalidated) set up
15 min time-frame, hammer candle @ 4 hour 50% fib level
Attached Thumbnails
gbp-usd-06-apr.10-set-up-entry.jpg  
Leia is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Apr 6, 2010, 3:07pm   #17
Joined Dec 2009
Indices Tuesday April 6th

Leia started this thread The US open looks to be pulling prices lower after Easter

I will keep an eye on S&P for a pullback to the 4 hr 20ma, or to between the 4 hr 20 and 50 and then a signal on a lower timeframe to get me into a long position (the daily and 4 hourly trends are very strongly bullish)
Leia is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Apr 6, 2010, 5:42pm   #18
Joined Dec 2009
Re: Eur gbp - update

Leia started this thread I have just moved my stop to 0.88 75, locking in 40 pips profits at roughly 1:1 risk / reward of the opening position, because its just above what I perceive to be the current resistance level at 88.60, prior to the current push lower (purple line)

Quote:
Originally Posted by Leia View Post
Here is a 1 hour shooting star candle, providing a potential set up to get in short

Lets see what happens (entry @ last weeks low: 0.89 18; stop @ 0.89 50 which is 50% fib just beyond the tip of the candle wick and target @ 0.87 50 being the last significant 4 hourly support level)
Attached Thumbnails
eur-gbp-06-apr.10-move-stop-40.jpg  
Leia is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Apr 6, 2010, 5:53pm   #19
 
The Artist's Avatar
Joined Aug 2009
Re: Eur gbp - update

Quote:
Originally Posted by Leia View Post
I have just moved my stop to 0.88 75, locking in 40 pips profits at roughly 1:1 risk / reward of the opening position, because its just above what I perceive to be the current resistance level at 88.60, prior to the current push lower (purple line)
Hey,

Do you move your stops to 1:1 on a discretionary basis or is it a rule to use trailing stops with initial stop distance as increment?
__________________
Memento Mori
The Artist is offline   Reply With Quote
Old Apr 6, 2010, 8:33pm   #20
Joined Dec 2009
Re: gbp usd - update

Leia started this thread The news @ 7pm UK time has been kind to this trade and I have now moved my stop up to a break even position.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Leia View Post
Stop is 1.5120 (risk = 60pips) and Target 1.5380 (reward = 260pips)
Leia is offline   Reply With Quote
Reply

Thread Tools Search this Thread
Search this Thread:

Advanced Search

Similar Threads
Thread Thread Starter Forum Replies Last Post
Proof of consistency trading forex epic767 Forex 7 Jan 25, 2008 10:18pm
Question 3: Moderation fairness and Consistency barjon T2W Feedback & Announcements 27 Nov 29, 2005 12:46am

Currently Active Users Viewing This Thread: 1 (0 members and 1 guests)