Spreadbetting FX using TA

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Old Feb 24, 2010, 11:46am   #1
 
SH-101's Avatar
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Spreadbetting FX using TA

Hi,

This thread is my response to a number of posts I've seen here lately as a long-time reader claiming that it's not possible to make any money from spreadbetting on the FX markets, nor is it possible to be consistently profitable using technical analysis alone.

I "trade" or rather, bet, on the FX markets for a living, using pure technical analysis, and this is my record of trades to show that it can be done.

In this thread I will not reveal any of my methods, but suffice to say the reason I perhaps enjoy more success spreadbetting than some is because of my style of trading. I guess you could call me a swing/position trader depending on your definition. I trade mainly off 1-hour charts but also look at 4-hour, daily and weekly charts. I enter and exit all trades with stop/limit orders; I never use market orders.

I tend to trade anywhere from 0-3 times per week depending on signals and I hold trades anywhere from a few hours to a few days, so don't expect this journal to be updated on a daily basis.

To be totally up-front and honest I have added a vendor tag because I do sell a commercial training course (not related to spreadbetting). However please note that I will not post any links to that here nor will I answer PM's regarding it - I'm not touting for business here, I am simply attempting to show some of the doubters that success can be achieved using technical analysis and spreadbetting. If the mods are not happy with this then please close the thread and accept my apologies.

I won't reveal my methods or position sizes here but suffice to say I risk 4% of my account on each trade, and adjust position size depending on stop size to ensure that the risk is the same on all trades. The ability to adjust position size in single-penny increments is one of the reasons I prefer to spreadbet rather than go DMA.

As I begin this journal I am currently on a healthy winning streak, so I have no doubt that things will be evened up with the odd losing trade early on! If I do find that running this journal on a public forum has any negative effect on my trading performance I may close it down.

For what it's worth I have one current open position, which is short EURJPY from 123.98 bid. Stop is at break-even and target is 121.30 offered.

At the moment I see no other obvious trades on the horizon, but as always I will patiently await the next opportunity.
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Old Feb 24, 2010, 1:16pm   #2
 
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Re: Spreadbetting FX using TA

sounds very interesting, I have been demo trading with a similar style now for some time. its often difficult to let winners run and needs good discipline
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Old Feb 24, 2010, 1:30pm   #3
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Joined Mar 2002
Re: Spreadbetting FX using TA

Hi SH-101,
Welcome to T2W!
Your journal sounds interesting, I'll follow it with interest. While I appreciate fully that you don't want to go into the details of your strategy(s) - posting a chart with entries, exits and any other notation you'd care to include would be useful. Given that part of your stated aim of the thread is to illustrate that it is possible to do well with TA, an insight into your broad thoughts on the subject would be useful. If you use any MAs or indicators, perhaps you could at least include them on your charts, even if you elect not to explain how and when you use them.
Cheers,
Tim.
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Old Feb 24, 2010, 2:29pm   #4
 
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Re: Spreadbetting FX using TA

SH-101 started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by timsk View Post
Hi SH-101,
Welcome to T2W!
Your journal sounds interesting, I'll follow it with interest. While I appreciate fully that you don't want to go into the details of your strategy(s) - posting a chart with entries, exits and any other notation you'd care to include would be useful. Given that part of your stated aim of the thread is to illustrate that it is possible to do well with TA, an insight into your broad thoughts on the subject would be useful. If you use any MAs or indicators, perhaps you could at least include them on your charts, even if you elect not to explain how and when you use them.
Cheers,
Tim.
Hi Tim

I appreciate your comments - I do intend to post charts and will of course go into some basics about my approach to TA, hopefully it will be enough to give people some insight.
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Old Feb 24, 2010, 5:50pm   #5
 
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Re: Spreadbetting FX using TA

SH-101 started this thread To clarify a little about my approach -

I am a trend follower. For the most part my approach is based around trading in the direction of trends after a pullback. In an uptrend I'll wait for a pullback to support, then look for signals that the trend is ready to resume. I'll do the same following a pullback to resistance in a downtrend.

The signals I look for are based around divergence - the only way to turn lagging indicators into leading indicators. I look at various methods of determining support and resistance.

Typically my successful trades give a return of between 1.5:1 and 2:1 reward/risk.

My specific method of determining the trend, the divergence indicators and the settings I use and one or two other things won't be posted to this journal but I'll try to post charts using other indicators to explain the setups in an "equivalent" fashion and give some idea of how things work.

I'll post to this journal when I place an order, and when an order is either pulled, filled or moved.
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Old Feb 24, 2010, 10:36pm   #6
Joined Nov 2008
Re: Spreadbetting FX using TA

Quote:
Originally Posted by SH-101 View Post
To clarify a little about my approach -

I am a trend follower. For the most part my approach is based around trading in the direction of trends after a pullback. In an uptrend I'll wait for a pullback to support, then look for signals that the trend is ready to resume. I'll do the same following a pullback to resistance in a downtrend.

The signals I look for are based around divergence - the only way to turn lagging indicators into leading indicators. I look at various methods of determining support and resistance.

Typically my successful trades give a return of between 1.5:1 and 2:1 reward/risk.

My specific method of determining the trend, the divergence indicators and the settings I use and one or two other things won't be posted to this journal but I'll try to post charts using other indicators to explain the setups in an "equivalent" fashion and give some idea of how things work.
I'll post to this journal when I place an order, and when an order is either pulled, filled or moved.
Red - good technique
Blue - Boo!!! (but understood)

What TF buddy, 3-4hr or dailys?
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Old Feb 24, 2010, 11:34pm   #7
 
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Re: Spreadbetting FX using TA

Good stuff. I'll look forward to it.
There has been a bit of an 'anti TA' theme on the forums for a while now.
DionysusToast and theexpert spring to mind, in recent times. Nothing against them though. I actually quite like both of them for different reasons!

It can be disheartening, especially for newbies, to be told flat out that TA is useless, especially with the lack of information regarding any other alternative.
The anti TA brigade dont tend to really provide any details in enlightening anyone.

There was the 'trading without charts thread' a little while ago. About 30 pages long, and at the end of it, nobody was any the wiser about what John1(i think that was the poster who provoked most questions) was even talking about!
He said he didn't use fundemantals...or charts/TA...or level2/DOM/time+sales info....or tea leaves.
Everyone left the threads scratching their heads.

I find it hard to believe that just saying what it is you use would be giving the game away, and that just knowing that information would suddenly make anyone who knew it profitable!
Surely anything would still require hard work/time and practice.

'Theexpert' has a thread running at the moment, apparently to teach people. readers spent the first 10 pages trying to analyse graphs, without knowing what the data represented! no labes on the charts at all. Why one wouldn't just say 'this is a chart of KLAC and this graph shows the daily range and the volume' (for example) I dont know!

Anyway, back to your OP.
There are without question, people who are very consistent and successful with just trading the charts. I traded in a free private skype room for a while with some excellent traders who made a killing every day.
Im nowhere near where i hoped i would be when i began getting interested in trading about 7 years ago. Not gonna lie. However, over the last few years I have began to get some decent consistency in my own trading, losing days scattered amongst many more winning ones. I know its possible. Its NOT easy!

Maybe if the nonTA guys were a bit mnore giving with their info (like the TA people are) then we'd get the best of both worlds, and reach our goals quicker.

Good luck
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Old Feb 24, 2010, 11:38pm   #8
 
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Re: Spreadbetting FX using TA

I tried to run a mile in 4 minutes the other day. I failed miserably. I say it's impossible.
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Old Feb 24, 2010, 11:43pm   #9
 
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Re: Spreadbetting FX using TA

Quote:
Originally Posted by temporarilylight View Post
Good stuff. I'll look forward to it.
There has been a bit of an 'anti TA' theme on the forums for a while now.
Good luck
Themes come and go.

When i found this site, it was all about "darksiding" and everyone was a darksider, now i never see this word anywhere. The ones who did it are mostly banned, and apparently its all been thrown out in favour of a new theme.
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Old Feb 25, 2010, 1:40am   #10
 
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Re: Spreadbetting FX using TA

Quote:
Originally Posted by shadowninja View Post
I tried to run a mile in 4 minutes the other day. I failed miserably. I say it's impossible.
Probably one of the best posts ever made on this forum.
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