my journal 2

This is a discussion on my journal 2 within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Two videos of a series on human evolution, that I watching right now. Quite interesting. More on human evolution, with ...

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Old Apr 5, 2010, 11:12am   #641
 
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Human Evolution

travis started this thread Two videos of a series on human evolution, that I watching right now. Quite interesting.






More on human evolution, with a genetic approach. The above series of videos describes human evolution until 50k years ago, whereas the videos below describe it from 50k years ago.



I am realizing now that, when speaking of evolution, we should differentiate between biological evolution and sociocultural evolution, even though on the main wikipedia entry for "evolution" it seems to just refer to the biological sense...What is Evolution?

I like how this guy explains, simply, clearly, brilliantly and concisely, the difference between the two:
http://www2.truman.edu/~rgraber/cultev/bioevo.html

Quote:
The roots of cultural evolutionism are intertwined with the biological theory of natural selection--a theory arrived at independently by A. R. Wallace and Charles Darwin, and made famous by Darwin's book of 1859, The Origin of Species. Yet biological and cultural evolution each have "rules of their own"; confusing the two is a grave error--one that marred the work of thinkers such as Herbert Spencer, and that has reappeared recently among the sociobiologists (see Harris 1979).

A key difference is that once a species is intelligent enough for its ways of life to depend greatly on learning, those ways of life can change far faster than can the species' biological makeup. The steam engine, the automobile, and the computer scarcely needed to wait on biological evolution in order to transform how we live! Artifacts, customs, and ideas can spread rapidly within a generation; biological evolution happens only over generations. Biological evolution can occur rapidly, but only in simple life forms, such as microorganisms, that have very short generation times. Indeed, the rapid evolution of microbes is what causes our antibiotics to "wear out" so quickly. By filling certain microbes' environment (our own bodies) with drugs, we wipe out all those that have no resistance to that drug; but if even a single "bug" contains a gene making it resistant to the drug, that is precisly the one that will survive and reproduce, giving rise to a new strain--a resistant strain for which a new antibiotic will have to be sought. No end is in sight to this war between bugs and drugs, in which they fight with the weaponry of biological evolution, we, of cultural evolution!
I was wondering and realized this important difference when, in the third youtube video of Journey of Man (minute 5:55), Spencer Wells says "they may have looked like us, but the people who lived here weren't as smart..." referring to people living in a cave 80k years ago. And this remark got me thinking.

Now, according to this Timeline of human evolution (great link), 80k years ago our ancestors were "anatomically modern humans", so what is he talking about? Is he confusing between biological and social evolution? Of course not, but then I don't understand what he means by they weren't as smart. They were potentially as intelligent as us (except not socially, like some amazon tribes today), were they not? Maybe he's just saying it in the broad meaning, like we say that someone is not as smart. I misunderstood and thought he meant they didn't have a big enough brain, like mine, which overheats when I try to understand formulas.

I found further information on that Blombos Cave, with the not-so-smart humans, here:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Blombos_Cave

And here it says:
http://www.svf.uib.no/sfu/blombos/Mo...ur_Debate.html

Quote:
The Debate

The origins of anatomically modern people (Homo sapiens) almost certainly lie in Africa at about 300,000 - 150,000 years ago and genetic evidence shows that all living people are related to these African ancestors.

The origins of 'modern' human behaviour, however, are a more contentious issue and the subject of ongoing and extensive debate. A link between early anatomical modernity and early 'modern behaviour' in Africa is not generally accepted and there is also disagreement on how 'modern behaviour' is defined.
So I guess it all boils down to this debate on modern anatomy and modern behaviour, which is closely related to the distinction of biological evolution vs cultural evolution. Probably this is the main subject of those Journey of Man.

More related links:
http://www.mobtakeransanat.com/staty...of-the-ol.html

Quote:
Who Are the Australian Aborigines? - One of the oldest human races
The Australian Aborigines form together with the Bushmen and pygmies one of the oldest human race. They are one of the first human groups to have moved out of Africa perhaps 60,000 years ago. This group formed a race later known as Black Asians. 12,000 years ago, they were the main inhabitants of India, Indochina, Indonesia, New Guinea, Melanesia, and perhaps even eastern China. They make the most primitive form of this race, later types being represented by Papuans or Melanesians.
Unlike African Blacks, these people have abundant beards, a lot of hair on the body, are shorter, have slimmer lips, a tilted front (not cambered), prominent eye ridge and aquiline noses. The hair is somewhat less kinky. The Aborigines maintain in their physic some very primitive traits for modern human races: evasive foreheads, very prominent eyebrow ridge, eyes sunk into the sockets, and extremely wide noses, with a depressed base and elusive chin. The skin is dark, but not so much like in African Blacks; the body is rather slim and tall, with long and thin arms and feet.
This race has one of the highest genetic diversity amongst current human races (being bypassed just by the Bushmen, the oldest living human race), the mitochondrial DNA showing an age of at least 35,000 years for this human type.
One curiosity of the Black Asian race (Aborigines included) is that some children can have naturally blond hair. Still, with the age this hair turns gradually dark.
But later than 12,000 years ago, in India entered White populations from central and southwestern Asia, greatly displacing or mixing with this race. Still, even today, many Indian populations, especially in the south, still preserve this Black Asian racial type, and some Gurus from the south cannot be distinguished from a Papuan or Australian Aborigine. In southeastern Asia, they were replaced by Mongoloids coming from Tibet and central China.
Australian Aborigines could have entered Australia through New Guinea about 40,000 years ago, as during the peak of the last Ice Age New Guinea was connected to the Australian continent via a land bridge, forming the called Sahul.
When European colonization started, Aborigines retreated to the inner deserts and steppes and to the remote north. The Aborigine culture is one of the Paleolithic (Old Stone Age), a glimpse of how we lived more than 20,000 years ago.
[...]


https://genographic.nationalgeograph...hic/index.html
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Last edited by travis; Apr 5, 2010 at 10:31pm.
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Old Apr 5, 2010, 11:36am   #642
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re: my journal 2

i dunno; i just can't believe humans came from nothing but dust; i do think something made us; i think there is a GOD as such but not sure whether to believe the stuff in the bible;how easily could that have been manipulated!
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Old Apr 5, 2010, 11:49am   #643
 
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re: my journal 2

travis started this thread Personally I am atheist and I believe in what science tells us (evolution and all that). Actually that's why I always wanted to make money trading, so I can quit my job and become a renaissance man. Or just sleep all day long, depending on the mood.
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Old Apr 5, 2010, 1:06pm   #644
 
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The Tree of Life as depicted by Ernst Haeckel

travis started this thread Pretty neat...

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/History...ionary_thought
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ernst_Haeckel

tree_of_life_by_haeckel.jpg
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Old Apr 5, 2010, 3:03pm   #645
 
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NOT celebrating after a profitable day

travis started this thread Today I am having a good day, making probably over 1000, maybe even 2000 or even more.

A year ago, I would have celebrated by going to the japanese restaurant near the bank, treating my colleagues, feeling like a millionaire.

Then the next day I'd come home and find a 1000 dollars loss. I'd be so unprepared for it that I'd double up the ongoing trade, trying to make it all back. And eventually this would lead me to blowing out my account.

What I have to realize is that today's profit is not mine, but it's the systems', and they're entitled to lose it tomorrow.

The way I'll handle it this time is by only allowing myself to celebrate on a weekly basis, or even better a monthly basis, and if I'll spend anything, I'll spend in terms of percentage of that month's gains rather than today's gains, because as I said, they're not mine. Since, whereas I can expect to have profitable weeks, I definitely cannot expect to have just profitable days, and therefore today's gains are not accounting for future losses, and must be coupled with tomorrow's losses and compensate for them.

So for today, I won't say to anyone that it went well, nor celebrate at all, because I need to be prepared for tomorrow's drawdown.
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Last edited by travis; Apr 5, 2010 at 3:44pm.
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Old Apr 5, 2010, 3:59pm   #646
 
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Re: NOT celebrating after a profitable day

Quote:
Originally Posted by travis View Post
So for today, I won't say to anyone that it went well, nor celebrate at all, because I need to be prepared for tomorrow's drawdown.
Yes exactly what I think.

Remember to be humble, because you have ripped that money out of someone else's hands, someone who was just as or even more desperate to win. Today you beat them, but tomorrow they will beat you. There might be a market in between you and them, and they might be engaging in their trading with the same preparation as you, in which case it is an equal fight and you've no need to reflect on it - but most of the time, they will be the 95% who lose, the poor, dull witted idiots who didn't grasp what had to be done to win.

Perhaps that's who we still are - just poor dull-witted idiots - but perhaps you will carry on winning, perhaps I'll start winning soon too. Just don't forget who's sponsoring your winnings.

If you're not humble, you'll forget the important stuff and suddenly you'll be one of them again - dull-witted, and poor!
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Old Apr 5, 2010, 4:20pm   #647
 
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re: my journal 2

travis started this thread Hmm... I don't like the way it sounds: it sounds like I should feel guilty... but maybe you have a point and that's why it bothers me. However, if we want to see it in these terms, I am still down 50k since I started trading in 1997, so I am entitled to some apologies from the guy who took my money until now.

Personally I see it in slightly different terms: I am trading with the market, which is made by millions of people, not just one person and I don't really know where my gain is coming from (certainly not from one person). Otherwise we could also be saying that if I drink a glass of water in Italy, since the world's water is limited, just like trading profits, I am taking that water from a child in africa and causing him to die. But I guess this could actually be close to the truth...

Actually it's true. A peaceful guy buying some gas for his car in the States is as peaceful as a soldier killing people in the middle east to make sure that gas stays cheap. Yeah, you know what I mean, even though I am probably not explaining it correctly in all details. I guess whenever we're using resources that are limited, we're taking them from someone else, in trading and in other fields of our lives.

So... we are all permanently guilty, unless we're missionaries. But even a missionary, if he washes his hair, he's subtracting resources from parasites who would like to inhabit his body. And parasites are living beings, so only a missionary who never washes himself can be ok with his conscience.
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Last edited by travis; Apr 5, 2010 at 4:58pm.
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Old Apr 5, 2010, 6:04pm   #648
 
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re: my journal 2

haha, ok maybe in the forex market you could use that comparison - but in futures, at the futures exchange, it's a zero sum game. You only win because someone on the other side of your contract lost.
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Old Apr 5, 2010, 6:32pm   #649
 
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re: my journal 2

travis started this thread I am not sure I agree, but maybe it's a question of semantics.

I would be more inclined to agree with the concept you're referring to (zero-sum game), if you phrased it differently, since I don't think I am opening and closing my (futures) position by trading with just one guy, as you make it sound. I don't just have "someone" on the other side of my contract but usually two different people. I trade with one person when I open it and with another person when I close it. Isn't that the case?

Guy A buys at 1 and sells at 2, to me. (A makes money)
I buy at 2 and sell at 3, to guy B. (I make money)
Guy B buys at 3 and sells at 4, to guy C (B makes money)

So far I made money, but we can't say I caused a loss to anyone, can we?

Let's even say that down the line, guy C, who bought at 4 sells at 1 to guy D and loses 3 points.

Can we say that I caused him to lose 1 point? I don't think so: I didn't even interact with him. Can we say that guy D caused him to lose 3 points? I don't think so. We don't even how much guy D will make any money from the trade.

So yes, it is a zero-sum game, but we can't say that by making money i am causing a loss to someone else, as you said. This is just my opinion, feel free to ignore it.

In the same way, if you buy a car today for 20k, never touch it, and sell it in ten years for 10k, which is the market's value for it, can we say that the guy who buys it from you rips you off or causes you a loss? He's buying the car for what it's worth. You caused yourself the loss by keeping it. The same with the contract. I buy the contract for what it is worth on the market. We cannot say that I am taking money from anyone. It is not logical, it is not semantically correct. This does not mean that it's not a zero-sum game.

Just my opinion, feel free to ignore me. Anyway, I don't fully understand this whole thing, so you might be right, after all, and I'll find out in 4 years, come back, and tell you "sorry for disagreeing".
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Last edited by travis; Apr 5, 2010 at 8:16pm.
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Old Apr 6, 2010, 12:52pm   #650
 
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re: my journal 2

You should be a politician. That was a very good bit of squirming out the situation
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