Elliott Wave EUR/USD

This is a discussion on Elliott Wave EUR/USD within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; I have a very thorough understanding of Elliott Wave myself, but I am trying to simplify things here to be ...

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Old Oct 5, 2011, 4:30am   #811
 
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Re: Elliott Wave EUR/USD

JahDave started this thread I have a very thorough understanding of Elliott Wave myself, but I am trying to simplify things here to be beneficial to people reading this thread. Your complex response is the reason most people shun Elliott Wave Theory. So many people get caught up in labeling every little squiggle in a chart move. It doesn't have to be that complicated to be beneficial. Steep moves are almost always impulsive and sideways moves are almost always corrective. Here is an example for today. I am posting the AUD-USD 1 hour chart. If it goes up above the .9600 area then I will say that this move is impulsive and I will expect a pullback in three waves and at least one more move up in 5 waves................This is not that complicated.............Anyway Aby,,,,,,,,,Thanks for the feedback and here is tonight's chart..............
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Old Oct 5, 2011, 4:49am   #812
 
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Re: Elliott Wave EUR/USD

JahDave started this thread Here is the AUD_USD daily chart as well. This is showing no guarantee that the AUD is going up above 1.10, but there are some pretty good clues in this chart. The most obvious chart interpretation is that this is an expanded flat and it will go much higher. The second count is that this move down will be in 9 waves down, which is an extended impulse wave. Either way if it goes below .9385 then this wave will probably be an extension down, but if it goes above the .9600, then it probably will go up for a while...............
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Old Oct 7, 2011, 2:11am   #813
 
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Re: Elliott Wave EUR/USD

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Originally Posted by JahDave View Post
Here is the AUD_USD daily chart as well. This is showing no guarantee that the AUD is going up above 1.10, but there are some pretty good clues in this chart. The most obvious chart interpretation is that this is an expanded flat and it will go much higher. The second count is that this move down will be in 9 waves down, which is an extended impulse wave. Either way if it goes below .9385 then this wave will probably be an extension down, but if it goes above the .9600, then it probably will go up for a while...............
Here is the Aussie hourly chart at the moment...10/06/2011/9:00 pm EST. This has been a nice run up but it looks like it is almost ready to pull back some. I am staying long because even if this is an ABC corrective wave then it will pull back and then make at least one more run to a new high......If I did not get in on the first leg up, then I would wait for a 3 wave pullback and then get in long because the move up after that pull back should be stronger than the first move up.....Attached is the chart...

Good Trading,
JahDave
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Old Oct 7, 2011, 4:13am   #814
 
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Re: Elliott Wave EUR/USD

JahDave started this thread Here is the Kiwi Daily chart................The RSI is showing a strong move up, but the TRIX is not showing an up signal yet.........I bought the Kiwi yesterday and am planning to hold it long for a a week or so.........If the TRIX turns up in the next 2 days then this should be a good move up...............
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Old Oct 7, 2011, 4:15am   #815
 
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Re: Elliott Wave EUR/USD

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Here is the Kiwi Daily chart................The RSI is showing a strong move up, but the TRIX is not showing an up signal yet.........I bought the Kiwi yesterday and am planning to hold it long for a a week or so.........If the TRIX turns up in the next 2 days then this should be a good move up...............
If this moves above above the .7964 then it will go much higher...............
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Old Oct 7, 2011, 7:19am   #816
 
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Re: Elliott Wave EUR/USD

JahDave started this thread Here is a longer term hour chart of the Aussie...............The Aussie is in an ending diagonal.................This means that it will make a nominal high and then it will make a new low......................After that it will make a new high..................
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Old Oct 7, 2011, 7:20am   #817
 
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Re: Elliott Wave EUR/USD

JahDave started this thread Here is the chart.................
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Old Oct 7, 2011, 7:23am   #818
 
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Re: Elliott Wave EUR/USD

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Here is the chart.................
Probably the low will be about .9625.................Then I will be buying this pair again for the short term.............
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Old Oct 9, 2011, 4:16am   #819
 
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Re: Elliott Wave EUR/USD

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Originally Posted by JahDave View Post
Here is the Aussie hourly chart at the moment...10/06/2011/9:00 pm EST. This has been a nice run up but it looks like it is almost ready to pull back some. I am staying long because even if this is an ABC corrective wave then it will pull back and then make at least one more run to a new high......If I did not get in on the first leg up, then I would wait for a 3 wave pullback and then get in long because the move up after that pull back should be stronger than the first move up.....Attached is the chart...

Good Trading,
JahDave
I cashed out some profit Friday and went short on this pair because of the shooting star right here on the day chart and because this looks like a 3 wave move down...... I know in the previous post I said that I would wait this one out, but I cashed out half when I wrote that post and then things looked good for for a deeper retracement, so I flopped the other half............I think it will hit the .9650..........That is where my take profit is and then at the .9640 I have a buy................... This pair looks to be going much higher after another leg down....but the confirmation is to the downside for now..........We have made a newer low and a lower high........... Good Trading Everyone............
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Old Oct 14, 2011, 8:19pm   #820
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Re: Elliott Wave EUR/USD

JahDave, I love to hear someone is profitable in the long run. Thanks for this great thread and for consistently posting. Nice gift to other traders. If you get a minute...

1. What resources should I read to understand this better? I'm not afraid of reading entire books.

2. The difficulty with EWT is that everyone has a different opinion as to what is a wave top and bottom. How have you been able to recognize them consistently? I suppose you'll answer "Experience"

3. I have read Joe Dinapoli's book and a lot of his theory involves waiting to see what the maket will do, wait for a set up and place a rational trade. It won't work in an indecisive market. You need thrust and retracement, not indecision. Does your method work that way too?

4. It looks like you're trying to pick tops and bottoms. When do you enter and exit? I mean what is the set up you're looking for before you feel conficent enough to trade?
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Old Oct 16, 2011, 12:33am   #821
 
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Re: Elliott Wave EUR/USD

JahDave started this thread Hi Dogged,

4. I have been trying to pick tops and bottoms and I have been stopped out a lot, so I am getting away from doing that as much now. I am looking for more confirmation these days than I used to.
I am looking for candlestick patterns and technical confirmation before I take a trade.

2. My most recent posts have been trying to show everyone who reads my thread that Elliott Wave Theory is really pretty simple. Impulse wave are steep and corrective waves are not as steep. There are exceptions, which is the Aussie at the present moment and I will post up a chart tonight to prove it. Also, I will not answer experience is the key because I believe in independence and even though I read some other chartists EW blogs, I have differing opinions sometimes but still go with my analysis unless they prove to me where I am wrong. If I can't recognize a pattern now because it is very choppy, then I know it is a probably a corrective pattern. The only exception would be a leading or ending diagonal, so I guess there is some experience involved.

1. My favorite book is "Elliott Wave Theory", written by Frost and Prechter in 1978. You can find it at Amazon or other book stores.

3. I have not read anything from Joe Dinapoli. I think that you have to recognize the trend in time to make some pips before it reverses. I analyze multiple time frames before I take a trade and if you hit a big time frame right then you can make some amazing profit, but if you hit the 5 minute right then just a nice profit.

I hope these answers help you Dogged.

Good Trading,
JahDave
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Old Oct 16, 2011, 1:15am   #822
 
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Re: Elliott Wave EUR/USD

JahDave started this thread Here are my Aussie charts for this weekend. The Daily is still ripping to the upside, but the shorter term charts show a different picture. If my wave count is correct then this is due to reverse very soon. I will be selling at the 1.0322 with my stop just above whatever the previous high will be. If you wanted some more confirmation then you could sell at the 1.0280. Both of these points are below the last 2 support points. Either way this pair is going down for a nice move soon. Whatever you do, don't try to chase this market and take a long position at this point.
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aud_usd_10_15_2011_day.png   aud_usd_10_15_2011_hour.png   aud_usd_10_15_2011_5_min.png  


Last edited by JahDave; Oct 16, 2011 at 6:58pm.
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Old Oct 16, 2011, 2:47am   #823
 
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Re: Elliott Wave EUR/USD

JahDave started this thread The TRIX and the RSI are already showing an early reversal signal as usual. These indicators are very good when they are used with EW, but they are not so good in trending markets by themselves.
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Old Oct 16, 2011, 8:08pm   #824
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Re: Elliott Wave EUR/USD

Cool.Thanks. I'll be watching the AUD and keep following your thread. I think the EURUSD is about to retrace too, so that would correlate nicely.
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Old Nov 25, 2011, 3:41am   #825
 
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Re: Elliott Wave EUR/USD

JahDave started this thread Here is my Aussie update today. I think that wave 3 is over or almost over and we should see a bounce for wave 4. There is some confluence around the .9915 area, so I think that is where it's going. I will state something about Elliott Wave analysis for those that don't know this. Wave patterns are predictible but the size of the waves is not using Elliott Wave. This is why I and other Elliotticians use other technical indicators to predict the size of the waves. Anyway here are the charts. The 1 hour, 3 hour, and the daily charts. Please ask any questions and I will answer them.
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aud_usd_24_11_2011_day.png   aud_usd_24_11_2011_3_hour.png   aud_usd_24_11_2011_1_hour.png  

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