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This is a discussion on YM journal within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Frightfully exciting day what. A few pathetic scalps was all I could manage as it crawled disconsolately up the 10min ...

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Old Mar 4, 2004, 10:30pm   #65
 
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frugi started this thread Frightfully exciting day what. A few pathetic scalps was all I could manage as it crawled disconsolately up the 10min trendline (& 25 EMA) drawn from yesterday's low. Upper pivot R1 was true to its name and resisted any further advances. One Tick divergence shown but I failed to milk it sufficiently.

Room for a 5th wave up on the 30min to 1057.50 or so, but I guess all depends on payrolls, Intel and unemployment. I reckon tomorrow will be explosive one way or t'other and since we closed high those NDX Fib timing studies I posted on "Trading ES 1st qtr 2004" point towards a down day tomorrow. I don't normally pay much heed to Fib timing (there's always one top/bottom you can find which projects to another top/bottom with a bit of hindsight curve-fitting) but 4 in one hour is quite a strong signal. However today was too sideways for proper confirmation.

The volume pattern on the 30 min is interesting - recently it has been shrinking on the up trends and increasing on the down, suggesting an exhaustion of bulls.



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Old Mar 4, 2004, 10:34pm   #66
 
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frugi started this thread What a large profit, not.

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Hope u feel chipper soon Skim.
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Old Mar 5, 2004, 10:24pm   #67
 
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Read it and weep

frugi started this thread Cha'mone muddy funster!

Made the grand total of $22.30 after commission on one of the best trading days of the year. D'oh. That's not the whole story though. After a good start shorting the news I failed to realise how savage the snapback rally would be and ended up down over $1k at one point, thanks to too wide stops and even averaging up into it, but fortunately I had enough trust in the inv H&S target, 5 wave up and ludicrous volume blow off to short heavily at the top and recover my losses. Awful trading saved by clearer, more rational decisions or sheer luck? Probably a bit of both, but either way I'm relieved.

And of course I should have held those shorts much longer instead of exiting like a scaredy cat around the upper pivot. But given the strength and breakout above previous highs I was pretty keen to cover where I could as there was a good chance it might have rested at the upper pivot and then gone up to 1170. That would have really hurt. Risk before reward (bit rich coming from me given my start to the day, but u know what I mean!).

After the rollercoaster subsided lots of scalps around 1159. A long boring triangle that broke to the downside after a doji on the 10min and repeated failed attempts to get back into breakout territory, but there was no follow through. Not really surprising after the morning's action I suppose.

Learnt a good deal today and for that I am grateful. More surprisingly, a full time week of day trading has actually increased my account and for that I am very grateful. Confidence is growing, just gotta remember that despite my increasing consistency and care I am still more than capable of idiocy in a fast, unexpected market!

Have a glorious weekend everyone.

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Old Mar 8, 2004, 10:53pm   #68
 
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frugi started this thread Nice work Finirama!

I thought that was the bottom around 1149 what wiv all those RSI PDs, vol div and Tick PD. There was a lovely reaction off the 10 day EMA magnet/springboard again - I should have trusted it to 1. remain resistant given the break below a major hourly trendline and 2. eventually lead to a significant move (down in this case!).

Third fan line on the daily now gone, next sup 1135. Lots of fresh air below. The Fed will have to buy a few futures tomorrow to prevent a dose of carnage I reckon.

They usually do, so I'm gonna hold an overnight long from here in case 1143.5 (3/3 low) holds for 5 pts or so (possible target breakout down test around 1148) though for peace of mind I happen to be hedged short thru me hourly system with SB.

P&L really ludicrously embarrassing today - it would be derogatory to schoolboys to call them schoolboy errors in fact:

After a sensible start of 3.75pts short (closed at 1152) I

1. Went long on a HH above the 10 day EMA at 1151 without waiting for the bar to close
2. Failed to put an automated stop under my long and, just to cap it off,
3. Checked the progress of our supper for a minute too long at the crucial moment so lost 3 pts more than necessary on the late day selloff.

It's fine having no stop as long as you are in front of the computer with a ready market order. Otherwise, Frugi you are an idiot!
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Old Mar 8, 2004, 10:54pm   #69
 
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frugi started this thread The daily...
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Old Mar 8, 2004, 10:55pm   #70
 
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frugi started this thread And the shame...

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Old Mar 12, 2004, 10:10pm   #71
 
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Dandelions for hungry bunnies on me

frugi started this thread Phew - I needed this, big time. What a relief after a frustrating week! Of course I'm concealing the $5k loss I suffered yesterday No, seriously, I lost about $1.5k on Wednesday through sheer lack of control, attempts to grab the proverbial plummetting Global etc. so please don't be remotely impressed. I was so shocked I didn't trade at all yesterday and stumped around the house cursing my failings. But at least I'm fully aware when I'm being an idiot, which is an improvement on months hence. The hard part is stopping being so, much like shuffling off a pointless nicotine addiction: logically, extremely easy but in practice rather more difficult.

Apparently the INTP personality, with which I am dubiously blessed, is good at taking different perspectives, looking down at oneself from other people's viewpoint etc. which must help when trading rules are being shattered asunder.

No great skill required today, merely a general longing when it thought about filling the gap and bounced with a nice V instead, then some scalps off the top, with the albeit messy five wave up under consideration at all times. Had a target of 1120 for ES so wasn't miles out.

Sorry no chart today - tis Friday and I have Thai on the way, mmmm.
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Old Mar 13, 2004, 5:35pm   #72
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I was so shocked I didn't trade at all yesterday and stumped around the house cursing my failings. But at least I'm fully aware when I'm being an idiot, which is an improvement on months hence.

Sounds like someone needs a copy of The Disciplined Trader by Mark Douglas!

(One of the very few books on trading that are worth anything imo)

Try to change your outlook - are you an ANALYST throwing money at your views/opinion as most people are, or are you a TRADER who has no opinion, but simply reacts to what unfolds. There is a huge difference, yet a subtle one. If there is any holy grail to trading, that could well be it.

Keep at it.
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