Coda's Travels

_coda

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Introduction

The theme of my blog is travels through the Jungles of Information Overload and Voyages of Discovery on the Seas of Contradiction and Disinformation.

As a new entrant into the trading arena a Trading Journal in the Traders Forums is premature. I want a journal that records my thoughts and ideas as they develop with more exposure to the world of trading. If it's public and some kind soul sets me on the right path when I stray, that's a huge plus. Often I think I grasp something clearly and then discover when trying to explain it to another that there are gaps and errors in my understanding.

I do have a rough travel itinerary which I will record in a later entry as it becomes more clearly defined. My first destination is clear - to set up a private trading journal with the following features:

  • Watch List
  • Record of Paper Trading
  • Trade History

While I am still a long way from paper trading, let alone live trading, I know that when I get there I will initially be evaluating different systems, so the journal must not be integrated into any product. A note book should probably do it, but being a techie and a programmer I'll be tempted to knock something together on the computer.

There are a few posts on journals and some include spread sheets. I'm pretty sure I can find a few articles about this as well. I'll summarize my findings in this blog.

...Errors occurred on creating the blog, so I'm not sure how much of this blog is stable yet.
 
Trading Journal

Why want a trading journal?

It takes 10000 hours or 10 years to become an expert in a particular field. There's no reason to think that trading is any different. One can discuss these figures and how long it really takes give this and that, but the gist here is that to become an expert requires substantial experience which is made up of a very large investment in time. Even talented newcomers cannot compensate for lack of experience. My goal is not to become an expert, well it would be nice, but I'll settle for consistently successful. Let's guesstimate 5000 hours or 5 years at a minimum. OK, so that's the price tag I have to pay.

A template of a successful trader would contain lots of attributes - a sensible trading plan, the right tools (data, trading tool, broker, analysis), the right risk model (capital, position size, frequency, etc) and experience.

Experience is gained by trial and error over time, and I can be sure that there will be lots of painful errors coming my way. So be it. But if I can focus not only on the results of those trials, but also on planning the trials, then the learning curve will hopefully be much shorter.

This is, of course, what everyone calls trading to a plan. Having a sensible trading plan is asking a bit much of someone like me, just setting out. I have no clue what my plan should ultimately look like. What is lacking of course, is the necessary experience to know which goals I should be aiming for and what methods to use to get there and what the milestones along the way should be. A bit like catch 22.

To get some momentum built up I will resort to stepwise refinement, jargon from a parallel world. For this, I need a travel journal to polish vesion 1 of the trading plan (below). Later, soon I hope, it will turn into a proper trading journal, as I begin first with paper trades and then live trades.

Trading plan v0.1 :
[Choose share,
buy 1,
wait until Profit = x%,
sell 1,
rinse,
repeat].

Not really workable yet, well it is a draft.

Steenberger[1,2] recommends tracking your successes, not just your mistakes. Good thing we're just starting out.

Trading Journal - Some Links
1. When Trading Journals Don’t Work - T2W Article (26.09.2005) - Brett Steenberger
2. Making Trading Journals Work for You - T2W Article (15.08.2005) - Brett Steenberger
3. trading journals - T2W First Steps Thread
 
Voyage Report

Voyage summary
Well I've made onto the pier. I can see lots of fancy yachts, motor cruisers and cruise liners out there on the water. Some even appear to be going somewhere instead of sailing around in circles. Nice boats.

I'm interested in a little dinghy that's tied up here on the jetty. I'm not sure whether the planking is all that solid and there's seems to be a lot of water in the bilges. Must have rained last night. There's a sail bag in the boat, but I'm damned if I can see anything that looks like a mast. Oh, and there's one paddle. But the price is right, so I'll probably give it a go.

Wonder if I can get this thing to that floating jetty out there...

Infoglut
Finding some sensible way to navigate through the glut of information is probably my number on priority at the moment. I've made a decision to simply reduce the sources of information. I've chosen to limit my web site input to T2W almost exclusively for now. There is a host of information in the posts. That plus the articles, some are actually quite good for a neofighter. It will take some time to work through this. Plus the more European/UK orientation is a good fit, even though my current thinking is to work the US markets. That may change with more knowledge.

Broker Search
The broker search will be ongoing - Interactive Brokers looks like a suitable broker in the long term, but I need some trading experience before that. Currently I'm looking at CFDs and brokers like CMC and IG. I'll be attending a CMC road show soon, and there's a possibility of an IG seminar coming up.

There are others as well I'm sure. I'm in no hurry here, as there still a phase of Paper trading to go through before we get to the actual trading.

The only (feeble) clue I have is about equities. Equity based CFDs look familiar. Maybe, they aren't. I would have to avoid gearing and concentrate on small, but I know I can do that.

Watch Lists
The other activity I am starting is to track various equities. I recently obtained a sample of long recommendations that some unnamed sells. I set up a spreadsheet to follow the daily closing prices of these stocks from Yahoo. The results were uniformly dismal. Of some 20 stocks, only 1 actually showed signs of life, and not particularly strong signs. If you did the exact opposite of what was being recommended, things would have gone slightly better.

The system being punted is to set a stop at -X% to bail out when things go wrong, and a stop at Y% to take your profits. Fairly simple, but totally unworkable for the sample I used. To be fair this was data from the last few weeks and maybe the current market situation breaks the model.

The positive point about this exercise is that I now have a crude watch list that lets me track stocks that I am interested in - better than the nothing I had a few weeks ago. One day, when I am better set up I will use some kind of trading analysis software to do something more intelligent. Right now, that is not a priority, but it's something I will have to do before I get around to Paper trading.
 
Landfall

Landfall is imminent. So my first solo ocean crossing is soon to end and the exploration of a whole new continent lies ahead. If I have my dead reckoning right, the coast line should appear ahead in a week or so. Hopefully, I haven't drifted too far south on the crossing, as this could make me miss landfall. I could sail right past Cape Hope, the southernmost tip of the continent of Forexania and on into the Clueless Sea, where, so they say, there be dragons and all sorts of unpleasantness, like reality tv shows.

I've been studying the pilot books diligently the last few weeks and hopefully, we'll have plenty of recognizable landmarks to establish where we actually are.

I've been pretty busy the last few weeks with trading related research and planning my moves.


CMC vs IGMarkets

Attended a CMC introductory seminar. One of the participants asked them how to handle a data feed problem he had experienced with their demo. The presenter didn't seem well prepared for that question and couldn't handle it in a convincing manner. imo, this revealed the presenter as not being a trader or particularly experienced in their product. Apart from that, the usual upsell of "advanced" seminars that customers could sign up for. Couldn't see anything that wasn't already generally available for free here, and other places. But, then I suppose that it's targeted at people who aren't doing their homework.

I've been using a CMC demo account. Prior to that I was using a IG Market demo. I had signed up for a couple of other demos but, ultimately decided to focus on one tool at a time, rather than try and cover everything.

Huge plus point for CMC is that their software is stable. IGMarkets' web based tool sucks big time in the stability department. And this is not me with a flaky system. I develop software and I regularly reinstall a clean base setup. Most recently reset was immediately before trying the IGMarkets and CMC products.

IGMarkets displays the problems I have seen with other java based web clients. Crashes, incomplete loading of the applets or the configuration. There may be another explanation for an order form that allows you to enter lot size and price but refuses to let you select whether it's a buy or a sell. Reloading the page usually solved this problem, but is this the tool you want when you're trying to focus on trading? I think not. The tool should be like good design, something you don't even notice.

CMC downside for me was the klutzy order screen. IG Markets lets you set up Stop, Limit and entry all in one step. With CMC getting a stop setup requires a secondary step. Also unnice about CMC is that their system aggregates all trades for an instrument while IGM allows both an aggregated and separated view of orders for an instrument. I suppose this is a subjective thing, as in the end both views are valid. I prefer to be able to have both and preferred the IGM way. I wonder whether the klutzy CMC order form is deliberate, for some reason they want you to take 30 seconds instead of 10 seconds to setup a trade, together with the risk that you carry while your order is exposed without a stop.

The IGM product would crash many times a day. I noticed that the stability of the software improved once I was familiar with how to use it. But it never improved to the point that I had confidence it would not crash or misbehave. Did someone test this program? Because it really doesn't look like it was tested when it runs here.

I've decided to go with CMC only because of the lack of stability of the IGMarkets product. Long term I think I will end up elsewhere, but CMC looks good for now.


IMA

I also had the chance to look in at the IMA in Düsseldorf a couple of weeks ago. Nice to see everybody under the same roof. Hectic, but ultimately a waste of time for me at this stage. The companies that I wanted to see weren't there. Amazing how many people want to help you make money.

I was interested in the Vectortrade product presentation. However there's a lot of propietary detail that is hidden from view, which is understandable, but also begs a couple of questions. They had some really neat software features that I liked. Ultimately however, I don't think I ready for something like this yet, maybe in a year or two...


Initial thoughts on FOREX trading

I've decided to take the plunge. I'm setting up a small account. If trading play money is light years removed from the real thing I'll be wasting my time with a demo account. I need to see how I trade with real money on the line.

My initial plan is to start with 1000€ and keep it. Simple objective.

Trading will be forex, initially 1 10k lot in EURJPY, the smallest lot size that CMC handles. This works out to about 0.62€ per pip. Given the small position size, I have chosen an R of 3%. This is larger than the 1% it should be, but I have been using this with reasonable success with the demo account, and I would like to be able to make a direct comparison between live and demo trading. Once I can compare, I may reduce it. I will not increase it.

Trading will initially be based on the 1 hour tick. This may change, as I will be experimenting with longer and shorter tick settings.

What trading style I have at the moment is something between day trading and swing trading, shortest duration could be an hour or two, the longest 2 days, possibly even longer.

Entry Signal :
Setup consists of a local peak, a retrenchment and then a peak that breaks through the previous level.

Entry:
Discretionary decision - this is then determined by how well the trend is defined. This is where I expect to learn the most trading with real money. The manual backtesting I've done is suspect because, no matter how careful I am, there is always the possibility of unconcious bias because you may have had a glimpse of the whole chart. Also, it's just not the real thing, is it.

Stop:
30 pips away from the entry. This assumes that the retrenchment was not a huge one that would have blown the stop. A huge retrenchment (~20+ pips) cancels the signal.

Exit:
Exit is determined by a similar pattern. Alternatively, If a sufficient gain is achieved in the run, we'll be happy. Sufficient will be directly related to losses accumulated.

Target:
There is no pip target at the moment. I want to break even or have a small profit.

If things go well, I will build up to 3 active positions, which should tie up about a third of the account. Once

Realistically - this strategy allows 50 consecutive bad trades before funds run out. If I'm still trading after a 100 trades I will consider this exercise to have been worthwhile. If I can reach 400 trades I will consider myself to have done extremely well.

Comments welcome...
 
Stranger in a strange land

Travelogue

We've made landfall, and are now faced with two choices. Head south or north. The coastline here looks bleak with no obvious landing places. There are signs of life ashore, smoke. Since the source remains stationary, I assume that this is man made. I think we'll head north, there's a headland on the horizon that may have a bay on the other side of it. Don't see any landmarks yet that match anything in the pilot books...


First day of trading!

I've taken the plunge and am trading with real money. Small amounts, but real money. I've even managed to eke out a minute positive balance. I expect this to be frittered away very soon.

The first two trades were a total adrenalin kick. After that I managed to settle down a bit. I've been focusing on EURJPY mainly, however my first trade was on the FTSE. The one and only, and I made a whole pound on the trade. Like dipping my toe into the water to check the temperature.

One thing that bothers me about the trades, is that I need stops that are quite large, in order to be able to stay in a position. I wonder if this is because my entries are not good, or if it's just the way it is because of the size of the movements. My logic is as follows. 6 pips stop plus whatever the largest single swing seen in the last hour or so. Today this has been up to 10 pips or so.

This results in a stop of about 15 pips, which is still well within my risk (which can be about 30). I have 2 problems with this. First, I should be aiming for 2R or 3R to justify the risk. Not getting or even seeing those sort of returns at all. Well, I did get one +22, but that still wasn't 2R. Secondly, I've been reading up about various strategies, and the one that I've been trying to follow suggests that one can get away with a 6 pip stop. I don't see that working for me yet. Maybe I'm still too clumsy with my entries.
 
First excursion on foreign soil

Travelog

We found a small bay to anchor in. It's exposed to anything blowing from the south. I don't think we'll be able to stay here for long, and we really should move to a more sheltered anchorage. I'm impatient and have gone ashore to take a look around and meet some of the locals.

The first person I met was fairly cryptic about anything of value. He suggested that I be very careful about believing anything here, even him. Sounds like Plato's pardox, doesn't it. He then disappeared inland through the jungle. I can see people wandering up and down the beach. They all look pretty confused.

One fellow said he was dying of thirst. When I pointed out a rain puddle he said that he couldn't drink standing water, it wasn't safe. Looked ok to me and I tried it to prove it to him but he wasn't having any of it.

Now and again you see the odd person who in contrast to the lost souls, seems focused and going somewhere. They always head inland. I'll try and follow one of them ...

-

50 hours young. Things have gone reasonably well. Mainly focusing on EURJPY and USDJPY. Looks like I need to be running at least 4 or 5 positions simultaneously in order to keep myself out of trouble. If I just have one going I tend to start worrying it and end up making a mess of it instead of leaving it alone. Also have realised that I do better focusing on positions that are going to run for hours or a day than trying smash and grab tactics.


CFDs

Had my first encounter with CFDs. I'm not planning to trade CFDs at the moment, but I decided to take a bite to see how it all works and gain a bit of experience. I couldn't have wished for a better introduction!

I chose NRK, which has been in the news recently. A tiny position and something that looked like it should only go up. Turns out much more risky than I realised and a very good example of the hazard of leverage. I was lucky to enter very low. Just a little higher and I would very likely have blown my account. The stock rose sharply and then, contrary to my expectations, took an even lower dive. I didn't think it was possible to go lower.

Had I taken that position just a few pence higher I would have lost the account. Luck was with me and a valuable lesson learned. I'm still holding the position but I will bail at the first sign of a further sell off. Rather take the loss and survive to continue trading than to hold out for a recovery and lose the house. I'm curious to understand what's going on here.

Forex

Forex has been very informative. I'm still having too much in the way of finger trouble, making silly mistakes. Main sin is rushing into a trade instead of pausing to think thinks through.

Had my first encounter with NFP. Of course, it went the other way from my positions. What's with these people? I would have expected the reaction to go my way, which in some cases it finally did. Looks like the market's comprehension skills are not particularly good.

On the whole, I'm up, but have to admit that there is no consistent methodology causing it. Mainly trying to guess the trends with a very simple strategy. When it goes wrong, I simply hold on until it comes back. Works so far, but I know that it could go wrong. This should work if I've gone with the medium term trend. Maybe I've been lucky so far.


Tried a few index positions but I need to spend a bit more time understanding this. Rather should concentrate on Forex for the time being.

Well I'm still trading, and but for the NRK experiment I would actually be up on the week. I'm assuming that this is beginners luck because I can't claim is is the result of a deliberate plan. But, it looks like it's going to take much longer to blow my account than I thought. The probability is still high that I will lose my initial stake. After this week's experience however, I hope to hold on long enough to find a successful trading plan.

I think I have the money management thing almost sorted out so I don't see a risk of another NRK while I'm doing Forex.

One thing is certain. It was a good move to go live trading. I have learned so much more since trading with real money. The initial demo account was necessary though. I'm still making PBKAC errors, but I'd be making a lot more if I hadn't run the demo first.

I now need more structure. I have one trading system idea now and need to learn about backtesting so that I can determine not only its viability but also pick up some parameters for it. In the meantime, I will concentrate on identifying likely trends and then trying to get on board them once they have performed at least one oscillation of the trend channel.


Backtesting

Not easy to research backtesting on t2w. There are too many hits on the term. Most of them are passing mentions with no detail. It's going to take days to scan through t2w.

The plan: The plan is to go with the plan. And what is the plan? The plan is to create the plan. Once we have the plan then we can go with it. In the meantime we are going to stick with the plan which is to create the ...
 
Jungle Story

Wandering off into the jungle on your own is a sure way of ending up as lunch for some of the many predators lurking in the gloom. So far I've managed to avoid the sharp teeth. What hasn't worked so well is avoiding tripping over my own feet in the dark, and sometimes, unfortunately in daylight as well.

-

I now have 4 months of trading time behind me and I've managed to accumulate a few items of worth from personal experience. Be interesting to see how much more there is to be learnt.

1. It is possible to achieve spectacular gains. Yes even 100+% in a ridiculously short period of time (if your account isn't that big). I think this is a core piece of information. It may not be possible consistently, for an extended period of time, but just having this knowledge is worth a year's income as it validates the environment. This is a casino with the odds stacked in favor of the house only if you don't know how to trade. OK, so I don't know how to trade yet, but I think that's possible and I'm here to learn how to.

2. It is very easy to achieve appalling losses. Trading needs rigid discipline. With luck, you can get away with it. But when things go seriously wrong, this is the root cause.

3. If you cannot explain why you are achieving your gains and replicate this success consistently, you are being lucky and it's a matter of time before your quota of luck is used up.

4. I do not worship at the temple of Indicators. Indicators are interesting in an academic sort of way, but nothing more than that. So what to do when you don't believe in them? You should understand them as I think there's a lot of self fulfilling prophecy to them.

5. No one is out to get me. "They" don't need to. I am the most dangerous trading adversary I am ever likely to meet. However, "they" have made it very easy for me to wreak havoc on my account so don't be careless.

6. Always ask "what is going to go wrong with this brilliant plan?" and then try and figure out the worst case scenario. Make sure you can live with it.

7. Trading with a test account is of limited value without having traded live. Go live as quickly as possible (after first learning how the basics work with a test account of course.) Throw some real money away, (enough for it to hurt emotionally) and then go back to the test account. Without that live experience a whole dimension of trading is missing and the test account experience is less valuable.

8. I don't know it all and never will. There are at least 100 more things that I need to discover, all of them vitally important.

-

My first month of live trading was brilliant. The only thing that bothered me a little, was that there wasn't a particular strategy that was successful, most things I tried had a positive outcome. I didn't know enough to have a strategy. When the odd trade didn't work, I found that holding on to the trade instead of letting my stops trigger, the position would eventually be successful. Even if it took weeks. Using stops seemed to be a sure fire way to lose the trade.

I realize now that I was using "make a small fortune trading by starting with a large one" strategy with a liberal dose of beginners luck. Eventually reality caught up and whacked me good and proper.

Good thing that I started with the expectation of having to pay my dues. In the big picture I'm still way up as I haven't managed to blow my budget yet. But I'm noticeably down having had to top up my account a couple of times. Just when I had begun to believe that I could get away without paying any dues.

I know a bit more about the business than I did just three months ago. The biggest lesson has been the realization that initially I didn't really have a clue about the positions I was taking and why they should work. It is always possible to rationalize any trade, but all my trades were reactive. I was looking at charts, interpreting what I was looking at sometimes correctly, sometimes not and then taking a position.

I've now more proactive. I know now what to look for. When I find it, I have a trade. There's still a lot more to learn here as there's a large element that is still subjective so I'll be a while before I can claim success as a trader.

Discipline is still the problem number 1. Lack of experience is the other big problem.
 
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