my journal

This is a discussion on my journal within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; NEW INTRADAY DISCRETIONARY SYSTEMS ORDERS TO USE All orders "at market": no bracket, stoploss, trailing stop orders. Set up hotkeys: ...

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Old Nov 26, 2009, 6:51pm   #865
 
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Yamato started this thread NEW INTRADAY DISCRETIONARY SYSTEMS
ORDERS TO USE
All orders "at market": no bracket, stoploss, trailing stop orders.
Set up hotkeys: "B" for "buy 1 at market", and "S" for "sell 1 at market".
----------------------
CHARTS TO USE
1) SET UP THESE EUR.USD@IDEALPRO CHARTS WITH PIVOTS ON IB'S TWS:
  • 2 WEEKS OF HOURLY CANDLES
  • 2 DAYS OF 5-MINUTE CANDLES
  • 4 HOURS OF 1-MINUTE CANDLES (with lens)
  • 2 DAYS OF 5-MINUTE CANDLES TO CHECK CORRELATED MARKETS: GBP, ES, CL
----------------------
Between 8 AM and 7 PM CET (with trend):
ENTRIES
GO LONG/SHORT if the day is green/red and price goes through pivot levels
EXITS
up to you (roughly 20 ticks in 5 minutes, and losses smaller)
----------------------
Between 7 PM and 11 PM (against trend):
ENTRIES
GO LONG/SHORT if
1) price >150 ticks lower/higher than previous top/bottom,
2) we've been going down/up for more than 12/24 hours, and
3) we touch a pivot line (if there's no pivot line you can't trade)
EXITS
1) Stoploss at half a pivot level away
2) Close position at 8 AM but place a take profit at 1 pivot level away

Last edited by Yamato; Nov 26, 2009 at 7:16pm.
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Old Nov 26, 2009, 7:15pm   #866
 
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Yamato started this thread This is perfect. It's not so much that I won't read it, but not so little that I'll remember it without reading it. So it's a good plan, to be read, and respected.

It will provide me with several opportunities to trade every day. It can and will be modified but not increased in length and details.

And now I can finally have some fun trading like everyone else. Thanks a lot to that friend of mine, whom I met here, who made me give pivots a second chance.
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Old Nov 26, 2009, 7:17pm   #867
Joined Jan 2005
Re: my journal

Hi Travis,

This is a tragic situation you have found yourself in.

From what i can tell, you have read many books/websites on the subject of trading and decided "what does this guy know, who the hell is he anyway?" and decided to adopt your own magical system that is better than some professional.

All books on trading state "set stops before the trade" you don't seem to do it every time.
All books on trading state "Don't get emotionally involved" You are on the roller coaster every time.
All books on trading state "Know your risk:reward before you trade" You don't do it!
All books on trading state "The trend is your friend" - This is finally sinking in i think.
All books on trading state "choose one system and stick to it" You seem to flutter around from one to the next and modify the plan on an hourly basis based on one observation.

Basically, stick to the day job. You should not trade.

Its like telling a fat guy over 40 that he will never be an olympic 100m runner. Some times you just know if you got it or you don't !! Your trading personality is a part of your body just like the runners legs.

I like reading your thread as a "what not to do" thread. I am in no way as experienced as you but even after 12 years, very little seems to be registering with you.

I have been doing this for only 18 months now and have lost a total of $60 from about 10 trades of less than 20c per point. I am not rushing into this head on with a shed load of cash, maybe you should consider doing the same. Slow down or Stop before its too late!!

No offense, just stating some home truths that i'm sure you know already.

Best of luck.

Coopster
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Old Nov 26, 2009, 7:25pm   #868
 
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Yamato started this thread WAIT. ALL WRONG.

I've come up with something much much better which still relies on pivots.

[... thinking...]

Brainstorming:
Pivots would seem useless with smaller 20 ticks trades, because we would never ride price from one bus stop to the next.
But riding it only when it's leaving the bus stop (breaking through the pivot line) seems like a big waste, because the bus (price) will actually be speeding up, and at its fastest, between stops. So we've got to find a way to get on and off the bus while it's supposedly riding from one stop to the next. "Supposedly" is important because it is precisely what made me decide that we will not stay on the bus for the whole ride between one stop and the next, because it could fail and we'd be wasting time, and missed profit (in case it comes back to the previous stop.

So I am considering the possibility of... remember how i said that it speeds up as it leaves the bus stop and slows down as it approaches the next? Premise: we know the direction from the color of the day, so on a red day we will NEVER be going LONG (except after 7 PM CET, but that's a whole different system). Having made this important premise and reminder, let's continue. Remember how i said that the bus speeds up as it leaves the bus stop (breaks through line) and slows down as it approaches the next bus stop (line)? Well ok, we definitely do not make any trades when it's run over two thirds of its course between one stop and the other, because the slowing down will begin then. But NO, WAIT. Once the second half has begun, the expectation to reach the stop will increase so it won't slow down. Let's look at the past two days:
snap1.jpg
I hope I am not imagining this whole thing around two random lines. I don't think so, but the thought has crossed my mind several times.

Now my conclusion on observing the chart above is that all places between the bus stops are good for getting on the ride except the last tenth of the course: when it pretty much touches the stop.

WHAT DO PIVOTS ADD TO "GO SHORT IF DAY IS RED"?
So what is the difference between just deciding based on the fact that we're down for the day and pivots? What do pivots add to my strategy? Just that last tenth to be avoided? Yes, maybe that's it. The biggest part of my strategy is go short if the day is red and viceversa. The extra part added by pivots is "watch out for bounces near pivot lines".

NOT JUST THAT
There tends to be uncertainty near pivot lines, that can be exploited. So the rule to write down would be:
1) watch for bouncing as it approaches a pivot line
2) watch for uncertainty until it doesn't leave the bus stop (as in: "are we leaving or not? is there someone else coming on board? and which way are we going?")
3) expect speeding up as it leaves the bus stop

So I'll have to reformulate my system (only the intraday part, not the overnight) and later I'll read that message above mine.

NEW INTRADAY DISCRETIONARY SYSTEMS
ORDERS TO USE
All orders "at market": no bracket, stoploss, trailing stop orders.
Set up hotkeys: "B" for "buy 1 at market", and "S" for "sell 1 at market".
----------------------
CHARTS TO USE
1) SET UP THESE EUR.USD@IDEALPRO CHARTS ON IB'S TWS:
2 WEEKS OF HOURLY CANDLES WITH PIVOTS
4 HOURS OF 1-MINUTE CANDLES WITH 15-periods moving average
----------------------
Between 8 AM and 6 PM CET (with trend):
ENTRIES
GO LONG/SHORT if the day is green/red and if
1) you're 1/5th away from a pivot line
2) the 15-period ma gets crossed
EXITS
Whenever you feel the move is over or if:
1) price re-crosses your entry ma (by a loss of 10 ticks at the most)
2) you're 1/5th away from a pivot line
----------------------
Between 7 PM and 11 PM (against trend):
ENTRIES
GO LONG/SHORT if
1) price >150 ticks lower/higher than previous top/bottom,
2) we've been going down/up for more than 12/24 hours, and
3) we touch a pivot line (if there's no pivot line you can't trade)
EXITS
1) Stoploss at half a pivot level away
2) Close position at 8 AM but place a take profit at 1 pivot level away

Last edited by Yamato; Nov 26, 2009 at 8:06pm.
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Old Nov 26, 2009, 8:26pm   #869
 
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Yamato started this thread Hey, coopster, this is hilarious. Thanks for being so delicate. I've felt insulted before because of comments on my trading, but you've managed to tell me all this stuff without offending me at all. That is quite an achievement. I will now answer more in detail. I will have to sit down on the couch with my laptop.

FROM HERE ON, FEEL FREE TO READ OR IGNORE MY POST, because I am writing largely for myself and I won't be offended if you ignore my post and won't reply to it. (Actually usually I get into arguments with those who reply, but feel free to read and even reply).

Overall you sound very very wise. Also your way of saying things, and the fact that you have decided to begin by just investing fraction of dollars: that shows a lot of patience on your part.

Let me make one important premise: I am not as bad as I sound, and not as bad as I've sounded in the last few hundreds posts (thanks for reading them: read the first 500 and you'll get a different picture). Yes, I do lose money every month, blow out accounts on a regular basis, and have never had a profitable month, with my discretionary trading. But also you must consider that I've built trading systems that sometimes double the investment in just one month (only problem: I don't have much capital to invest in them). I've done something good in all these years: only it's not related to my discretionary trading. I am still a beginner as far as that applies. But I may turn into a pro overnight if I could just fix those few psychological problems that are keeping me from being profitable.

Everything you said made sense, and thanks for taking the time to write it here, and phrasing it so patiently and with important details. It was clearly stated and it said nothing that wasn't important.

I will answer more in a while, from the couch.

[...eating and reading...]

You say important and interesting stuff here:

Quote:
1) Apologies if it is too long.

2) I've learned a lot before i've even clicked the buy button!!

3) I have read a ton of books (Naked Trader, Dr Elder, Jesse Livermore and several more) because I refuse to go into this risky business blindly.

4)... but not got as far as even papertrading as yet.

5) I have a basic list of rules that I have gleaned from the books I've read (and T2W) that I think would be a good start if I can play them with discipline and I would like to know what the hardened pros think.
1) Unusually polite person (or maybe british people are all like this)
2) and 4) Very unusual trader, as far as patience. Even willing to wait before he paper trades. To read before starting to trade. That sounds very unusual and what's unusual is good.
3) Hard working guy.
5) Looking up to the "pros". I don't know if this is good or bad. I never liked or cared about the "pros", nor ever found who they are or if they exist. But since I never made any money, this might be good.

Overall you're totally different from me, in better ways, so i think you most likely will succeed and fast. Especially because i am not that superficial either, but you beat me in depth and hard work. So I think you'll do great.

As far as me, what can I say. You're painting me like an idiot, but no offense taken, because you're so polite and you were actually trying to help me - I realize that. And maybe I am an idiot, after all. Or probably I have some deep psychological problems that keep me from performing at my best.

You see, the problem is not that I don't know the things... or at least - I haven't read any (full) books (except livermore) like you did - but I've heard all the things you said before, as you actually expected. But hearing them doesn't mean you process them correctly. On top of that: those things you mentioned may even be conflicting with one another and may not produce a profitable method. The "pros" proclaiming those principles may even not be profitable. In fact let's say it all: I despise and look down on all those principles and all teachings that come from books and pros, and any kind of teacher on the face of the earth. You got that right. I set it out to do everything by myself. I've always been self-taught.

But let's get to the point, because you made me reason quite a bit like anyone who talks about me, which I enjoy always. The point is that i think in fact i have a higher than average intelligence and culture. And knowledge of the markets which is higher than the average trader. So I don't have any doubts that I have all the knowledge and intelligence it takes to be profitable, if we assume that a trader can be consistently profitable, which i do assume (but most non-traders disagree with this).

Anyway, so we've established that the only problem is psychological. It's as if you are a child who decides he will not talk and people go around saying he's dumb and deaf, until he decides to talk and you realize he talks fine. There's something in me that prevented me - i don't know what - but something that kept me from being profitable all these years. Going against the trend, not accepting a loss... it's a small but persistent thing that is keeping me from being profitable. You don't have to teach me anything, like discipline... these are just words. The requirements for profitability one day will click or won't. It won't happen because you taught me about the concept of "discipline".

One day, I think soon, I'll decide that I want to make money, and I will make money. I'll probably come back to this journal to explain how I'm doing it for the benefit of everyone, and then I'll stop doing it maybe because I'll feel that I'm giving away my secrets. I enjoy speaking my mind and I'll do it even if it causes me some damage but I won't go to the nazis and say I am a jew or similar. I will only do so much damage to myself for the sake of saying the truth.

There's always some invisible members reading, an increasing number of invisible ones. Well, all readers make me happy, because I feel that my sincerity is not wasted and that it's what allows me to reach people. If I were always calculating the consequences of what i write, instead of speaking my mind, my writing wouldn't be as easy to follow. Instead, I write as I think. The only problem is that I don't know which one of my 800 posts people are reading and enjoying, but maybe that's what makes me write better - not trying to please anyone. Maybe they're appreciating trading-related (automated discretionary or web search), or maybe psychology related posts. Or maybe youtube related, music or movies.

So, one day, soon, I will wake up and stop smoking. Does this happen, coopster? Well, for me trading is the same. One day, soon, I will wake up and decide I'll start making money. How come people stop smoking like that? Very often I've heard people say "one day I stopped". Have you ever heard of "compulsive gambling"? Doesn't it sound like this addiction is similar to smoking? Why can't a person one day wake up and stop losing money just like another person stops smoking? That's the point you don't get, and so far my trading career seems to be proving you right, but I believe this is the case: one day I will start making money, just like that, without any books to be read.

Other interesting things you said:
Quote:
From what i can tell, you have read many books/websites on the subject of trading and decided "what does this guy know, who the hell is he anyway?" and decided to adopt your own magical system that is better than some professional.
You're dead right. In the sense that I haven't read any books, because even just the first half a page of the dozens of -pdf trading books I downloaded on emule were enough to wonder "why is this guy teaching about trading (except E.P.Chan, that I appreciate and approve of, and read his 8 chapters on automated trading) and having to write 150 pompous pages about it? why aren't they painting things as simple as they are?". And my conclusion was always that these guys are not out to teach anything, but just to get famous or make money. And even if they're saying true things they're overblowing the size and the importance of them. The good guys are the ones writing on forums, or teaching trading in those chats. But since I dislike all teachers I don't even want to be in those chats. I don't mind teaching one to one. If there was a guy wanting me to teach me something just to me, without any classmates, I'd meet him on msn.

It's interesting how you use the term ""professional" and "pro" everywhere. Maybe you're right but I see it differently. A professional is this guy who's 18 and he's profitable. Would you call him a "professional"? This is not like being a doctor or a lawyer. You don't need a degree to make money consistently, and you could have a degree and not be able to make money. So that term doesn't make sense to me. This is more like playing video games. A 14 year old kid could be better than any scientist and so on, and you would never dream of calling him a "professional". In my opinion the term "pros" and "professional" that you and other people use is misleading. But who am I to say this? An unprofitable trader. But my opinion is important to me, and since this is my journal, I am gonna say that the term "pro" sucks. How about that.

Other interesting things you mentioned:
Quote:
I have been doing this for only 18 months now and have lost a total of $60 from about 10 trades of less than 20c per point. I am not rushing into this head on with a shed load of cash, maybe you should consider doing the same. Slow down or Stop before its too late!!
Many terms you use here and elsewhere convey to me that you're a peaceful, educated and polite person, and that is why I cannot be offended by anything you wrote. I can tell that you really wish to help, but once again, like a smoker would say, I believe that I am totally in control of my addiction, and that one day I will just stop the gambling and start making money.

Regarding the above quote. You sound very wise, definitely and also you sound like the exact opposite of me and what I've done. And you sound like you have the self-control, patience and discipline and state of mind to be profitable. You sound just like you're doing the perfect things, and - amazingly - things I've been recommending to everyone at the beginning of this journal (but never putting into practice): paper trade until you become profitable.

I've recommended it to everyone and i still do, but i can't do it. Because the reason I want to trade (and make money) is that i find it very exciting. And I don't know how you can manage to keep going like this, with paper trading and studying, without ever starting to trade (with bigger amounts than cents). Probably that's the right way to do things. Hey, I am the one who recommended it in the first place. I just wonder how you can do it. It's not fun at all. We'll see who's right. Maybe we'll both be profitable, maybe one of us, maybe neither... even if you said I am wrong and I am in a tragic situation (so far yes, but not forever maybe), that wouldn't get me down, and it may do some good in fact. Learning to trade is not always a peaceful process, nor is it always a quick process. I am confident that if anyone can learn it and if anyone can be profitable, then I am totally close to profitability as well. I can do it any time I decide to.

Last edited by Yamato; Nov 26, 2009 at 9:49pm.
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Old Nov 26, 2009, 10:11pm   #870
 
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Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread MAYBE NOT A GOOD IDEA TO TRADE AND POST ALL THE TIME
Maybe posting on this journal so often doesn't help my trading. Not that I am blaming it on the journal, at all. I've lost money long before I started this journal. It has helped a whole lot so far, for the things I've taken time to explain to myself, out loud, and research and for the people i've met, who taught me a few useful things. And for the questions and objectiongs I had to reply to.

At this point, tomorrow even, this journal, and the people reading it, certainly represent a great company for me, and an incentive to do well, to make them proud of me.

At the same time, I am not positive that it will be a good idea to be posting this often. I may lack enough focus on trading. Tomorrow or whenever the markets will be open I'll try to find some kind of mix between trading and posting.

I am sure no one by now thinks that I am making up the trades, since they were mostly losses. I don't have to post any results from now on. Just the charts when I am explaining something, also to myself, for future reference.

I don't know... if I'll find it useful I will post just as much as before, and if I'll need to focus and not post, I won't post as much. Certainly, I won't disappear, but also I will not feel the duty to report about every instant of my decision making regarding my trades.

I have decided - because I need to - that i will resume my discretionary trading, to bring my capital from a bit over 5k to 20k. Then I'll be able to stop trading again. Because it is fun but it is also tiring.

I think I'm gonna make it. At the worst, if i feel it's not good for my trading, I'll come here to write: today I went from 6k to 7k, or viceversa, and so on. To keep everyone updated. We'll see. I do enjoy writing here. I used to write a blog on the web, but only got to have 40 visitors per day at the most. Here I get 100 per day without any efforts... well, I am writing much more, too. But I think this place has more potential overall. Because it puts traders together. If you write on the web random people will come, who do not care about your trading. I didn't have a trading blog anyway - I was posting the other stuff about movies and music. Not writing anything: just links. I like it better here. Well, for today I've ran out of things to say. So probably I'll come back tomorrow. Hopefully the markets will be open.

Last edited by Yamato; Nov 26, 2009 at 10:24pm.
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Old Nov 26, 2009, 10:42pm   #871
 
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Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread Wow, three invisible readers.

I've finally taken the time to read wikipedia on forex, and it says:
Quote:
The foreign exchange market is unique because of

its trading volumes,
the extreme liquidity of the market,
its geographical dispersion,
its long trading hours: 24 hours a day except on weekends (from 22:00 UTC on Sunday until 22:00 UTC Friday)...
This is important because it solves the mystery of pivots calculation to me. The trading days on EUR forex, at least on IB's TWS (just like wikipedia says as well), start at 22.00 UTC, which is GMT, which is 23 CET. The pivots get calculated accordingly. The pivots on the CME EUR future are all screwed up, maybe because of different schedules or maybe because of other reasons, but they cannot be used. Now... why does forex start at 23.00 CET? That I do not know. Because it's not just the EUR but it is all forex.

Yep, I looked it up because I was looking to see if it'd be open on weekends as well, but guess not.

Last edited by Yamato; Nov 26, 2009 at 10:49pm.
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Old Nov 26, 2009, 10:50pm   #872
 
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Re: my journal

Yamato started this thread There's always one invisible mode member to keep me company.

It'd be funny if someone read my journal expecting me, by how i started it, and by how confident i sound, to teach him how to trade, and then they got to post 800 and read "you mother ****er... you took my money again!". Eh eh... pretty funny.

On the other hand, hopefully, besides all the reasonable things I said about automated systems, the web searches and links I provided, hopefully one day there'll be a surprise and I'll turn profitable as a discretionary trader, which will give me the cash necessary to trade all these systems. I feel just about ready for that.

I'll never get tired of saying this pun, that pivots may very well be my turning point in trading, in the sense that it's the last drop I needed before turning profitable. Plus the despair from being broke, plus the fatigue from work. All these things, the extra knowledge from pivots + the extra motivation from being tired of work, may be enough for me to turn profitable, regardless of what that fella said just a few posts ago. It's not a magic recipe, coopster - it's a recipe that needs some knowledge and some will. I had plenty of knowledge, and I was missing the will. And maybe now I got that, too. Just like I said, with pivots I may be at a turning point, or I may continue in my path towards self-destruction. It all depends if we're into an intraday trend, or overnight reversal. I think I am ready for the overnight reversal of my trading habits, because I've gone far enough with my losses, and I am tired of being a rebel, anti-conformist, always taking the hardest path, and going against the current.

Last edited by Yamato; Nov 26, 2009 at 11:04pm.
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