Joey's MP Journal

Value trended upwards on Thursday, and so far today, despite it being a red candle day, value is continuing to build upwards.

It will be interesting to see if the remaining few hours today continue to find support above the 855.50 level.

Until the market comes back into balance, I remain on the sidelines.

Well, I embarassed myself with that call! I blame the options boys
Must admit the upside move did suprise me. Daily chart looked like it was struggling on each new high and making a bearish wedge. I still am bearish but luckily I dont actually trade my medium term bias. More just to post it and make myself look silly on occasion.

proper trading has been ok though - Heres todays scalps.

You should put your name forward for a prop firm. I'm sure they would love that risk profile

Value Area calculations are designed to be applicable to vaguely "single distribution" days. These days have a bulge in the distribution where most of the time was spent, and then gradually thin out at the extremes.

On multi-distribution days there are areas of price where very little time is spent, leaving a trail of "singles" before a pause for breath and consolidation occurs again.

In terms of the Auction Chart, to apply a Value Area algorithm makes no sense, however the singles and the levels just before the singles offer excellent scalping opportunities upon the first visit.

In the chart attached, the first test of the top of the lower distribution offered a fade scalp today. On the subsequent breakout of this level, the market closed to "fill in" the previous day's singles (or low volume area).

The red and blue lines represent the 3 distributions which occurred yesterday, and the potential scalping levels for the future.

Hi joey, can you accept Pm's from me? I carnt reply to you.

Thanks

Hello,

Very interesting thread.
On your excel(?) pic, does the yellow area represent Value Area only?
If that's the case, how do you represent a "double day" ( two "bulges") ?

apply a Value Area algorithm makes no sense
It seems to me when you started this thread, you placed your entries around the Value Areas. In one case, if the open was below the Value Area, you placed a short trade
on the lower Value Area and another one at the POC. Am I correct? If so why have you changed your mind?


In the chart attached, the first test of the top of the lower distribution offered a fade scalp today. On the subsequent breakout of this level, the market closed to "fill in" the previous day's singles (or low volume area)
This is really great - I now realise why nearly all my fading trades at
the single tails levels kept turning against me! Looking forward to test this out on monday.

Hi Fantastic,

Thanks for looking at my journal.

As you know, most of the material on the web regarding value areas relates to the 30-minute chart running from 8:30 - 3:15 Chicago Time.

With regard to Value Areas, I've attempted to do something original by taking the 240-minute chart and then constructing a 24-hour value area from that.

So the yellow charts on here refer to that (and hence why I call them Balance Areas, since some people may wonder why the big differences with the CME numbers).

Lately, I've been attempting to trade breakouts from balance in a fashion similar to Crabel's NR work, except using overlapping value as a test of balance, rather than range. In accordance with this, a day with singles I regard as a trend day, so the market can't be in balance by definition.

I'm glad you like the scalping fades using the 240-minute singles - again these are a bit different to the standard 30-minute singles. The way to play them (in my opinion) is to place an order at the breakout point, so on the chart above* the level was at around 858 (the top blue line). Interestingly enough that 858 level was the high of the day the next day!

*the chart from post #276

Thanks for looking at my journal
The pleasure was mine.

I'll make sure I use 240minutes on 24hours.

Thank you for sharing your journal.