My FX Journal - 80% Fundamental 20% Technical

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Old Oct 13, 2017, 1:00pm   #1
FXX
Joined Oct 2017
My FX Journal - 80% Fundamental 20% Technical

Today I am starting a journal to track my progress. I have many years experience working in investment banks and work with market data on a daily basis. I have always been keen on the markets and decided to give it a whirl. I have a small account to get rolling £400 and trading nano lots until I manage consistency at which point I will begin to grow the account. I understand all the jargon and I am familiar with everything so not a newby in knowledge but a newby in trading.

My strategy is based on studying fundamentals and tracking the news for opportunities. I track the following economies:
  • United States
    United Kingdom
    Europe
    Japan
    Australia
    New Zealand
    Canada
    Switzerland

I only use technical analysis to work out entry levels, stops, and targets and my approach here is simple support\resistance and fibs for confluence levels.

I plan on being completely transparent in wins\ losses and will show my account and give analysis. The objective is for me to have a place to track my progress and allow input from experienced traders. I am looking at a handful of trades a week and might hold trades over sessions or longer is the opportunity for a swing is there.


Brad
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Old Oct 13, 2017, 1:06pm   #2
 
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Hi Brad,

Good luck to you posting your results.

I feel compelled to ask the following unless you have missed off some zeros from your trading account:

As you worked in investment banks and are not an inexperienced trader, my question is this:

How many people do you know against those you do that have been successful on an account of such value - £400.00

Lee
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Old Oct 13, 2017, 1:24pm   #3
FXX
Joined Oct 2017
FXX started this thread EURUSD trade

Analysis:

USA has been selling off since April on low inflation and expectations of dovish hikes from the fed. This has been seen as transitory factors but it has exceeded the window where the fed expected inflation to pickup. Employment has been strong however and over the last 3 months inflation has been steadily picking up. Yesterdays producer price index beat expectations and today there is CPI which is expected to be better and I agree with this expectation. There is a rate hike probability in December and this has been marked as a dovish hike but if numbers continue to show improvement then the dovish element to this is weakened making it more hawkish.

The EU have also shown improvement but wage growth is sluggish and unemployment high amongst southern states. Spain is in a bad state and has broken its convergence criteria and needs to bring that back but with 17% unemployment and a host of other economic issues, this is going to be tough on their economy. Yesterday news hit the wire that the ECB is going to reduce QE to 30bl in Jan until September. The Euro strength has largely been based off economic improvement and QE ending so this news adds a dovish tone.

I took a trade yesterday at the highs on EURUSD and closed before the PPI news
[ entry 1.18740 out 1.18446 ]

I entered again after the news and looking for a continuation of $ strength and EU weakness. I am planning on holding this trade through the inflation news today.
[ entry 1.8338 with a target of 1.7446]
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Old Oct 13, 2017, 1:34pm   #4
FXX
Joined Oct 2017
FXX started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Shepherd View Post
Hi Brad,

Good luck to you posting your results.

I feel compelled to ask the following unless you have missed off some zeros from your trading account:

As you worked in investment banks and are not an inexperienced trader, my question is this:

How many people do you know against those you do that have been successful on an account of such value - £400.00

Lee
Hi Lee

The objective of this account is to prove I can make profit and would rather do it on a live micro account than a demo account. I don't know any successful retail traders but have gained a lot of knowledge from traders at the firms I have worked. I am trading with 10:1 leverage with a trade size of 0.01 per pip. If I can prove to myself that I can do this then I shall start injecting more cash. I am targeting 30 to 80 pips per trade depending on many factors such as session time, news, sentiment, and my time. I know successful trade will get me 3-8 pounds profit which really isn't much but enough to prove out a viable strategy and improve my process. If I can grow the account over the next year to 600 then I shall begin to inject cash at 1k increments each month.

My goals in this endeavour is to give myself another source of income and maybe in years to come I could potentially give up work and earn off trading and income from a trade copy service.

Brad
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Old Oct 13, 2017, 1:59pm   #5
FXX
Joined Oct 2017
FXX started this thread opened another nano lot on EURUSD at 1.8677 short post news (prev high). CPI data didn't beat expectations but is continuing the theme of improvement and is really only marginally behind expectations. Also sales beat expectations which is a precursor to more inflation ahead.
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Old Oct 13, 2017, 2:29pm   #6
Joined May 2012
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Originally Posted by FXX View Post
opened another nano lot on EURUSD at 1.8677 short post news (prev high). CPI data didn't beat expectations but is continuing the theme of improvement and is really only marginally behind expectations. Also sales beat expectations which is a precursor to more inflation ahead.
Fed members are currently concern about low inflation and that it may be non transitory as expressed in the FOMC minutes earlier this week. Whilst there is general view of a Dec rate hike, they are more dovish beyond 2017 and will look to data. The CPI numbers today had average weekly earnings coming below expectation and is the main drive of current USD weakness.
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Old Oct 13, 2017, 3:21pm   #7
FXX
Joined Oct 2017
FXX started this thread
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Originally Posted by Brumby View Post
Fed members are currently concern about low inflation and that it may be non transitory as expressed in the FOMC minutes earlier this week. Whilst there is general view of a Dec rate hike, they are more dovish beyond 2017 and will look to data. The CPI numbers today had average weekly earnings coming below expectation and is the main drive of current USD weakness.
hi Brumby

Thanks for popping in and adding some commentary. I think the fed are focusing on the data points without considering common sense. I know this sounds somewhat arrogant and ignorant of their intelligence but you only need to look at the credit crunch to see that even the most intelligent experts lack common sense.
I took a look at the personal debt data and it is shocking the amount of debt that's been accumulated since the early 2000s. high levels of debt limits peoples spending so this is why I believe inflation has been slow to pick up. Looking at the prints this month it makes for good reading outside of the inflation numbers

ISM = prev 58 exp 57 act 60
ISM prices prev 62 exp 64 act 71
car sales prev 16m exp 16m act 18m
ISM non man prev 55 exp 55 act 59
unemployment prev 272 exp 266 act 260
avg hourly earnings prev 0.2 exp 0.3 act 0.5
emp rate prev 4.4 exp 4.4 act 4.2
core ppi prev 0.2 exp 0.2 act 0.4

and then todays data which is less than expected for core but is ultimately a lagging indicator. Core sales as you know beat expectations with retail sales coming in 0.1 off expectations at 1.6 which isn't negative when contrasted with the previous stamp of -0.1

In summary, I am not focusing on the current inflation numbers but rather the leading indicators for future inflation that has been released this month so far. A note on price action - it has failed to break the high made a few days ago and every test of it fails which does seem to agree with my thinking of the $ being over sold at the moment. Please do continue to add your commentary since I don't see many people on here even speak of fundamentals let alone give a nice summary as you have.
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Old Oct 13, 2017, 7:01pm   #8
FXX
Joined Oct 2017
FXX started this thread
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Originally Posted by FXX View Post
opened another nano lot on EURUSD at 1.8677 short post news (prev high). CPI data didn't beat expectations but is continuing the theme of improvement and is really only marginally behind expectations. Also sales beat expectations which is a precursor to more inflation ahead.
Exited this position at 1.8251 for a profit. Holding the other position for a larger move.

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