My FX Journal - 80% Fundamental 20% Technical

This is a discussion on My FX Journal - 80% Fundamental 20% Technical within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by Brumby I saw that coming through my real time news feed and I noted the GBPUSD pricing. ...

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Old Oct 18, 2017, 7:03am   #16
FXX
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Originally Posted by Brumby View Post
I saw that coming through my real time news feed and I noted the GBPUSD pricing. There was hardly any price movement as if the market took it as a non event. There were subsequently no analyst commentary on this news. One of those strange disconnect.
What feeds do you use Brumby? I have ransquawk but also use forexlive, FX street, Reuters. If I reach consistency I definitely am going to get a Xenith subscription to add to the toolbox.
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Old Oct 18, 2017, 7:07am   #17
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What feeds do you use Brumby? I have ransquawk but also use forexlive, FX street, Reuters. If I reach consistency I definitely am going to get a Xenith subscription to add to the toolbox.
I use Xenith and Forexlive. Isn't Xenith cheaper than Ransquawk?
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Old Oct 18, 2017, 7:23am   #18
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I use Xenith and Forexlive. Isn't Xenith cheaper than Ransquawk?
It is 1.5 times more expensive. I had Xenith before, loved it. Ransquawk do a lot of the graft for you and their news feed and commentary is excellent plus you can instant message their analysts if you not sure why a currency is moving or need analysis on something. It enables me to trade while I work more discreetly than Xenith and is pretty darn good at getting the right info to you without noise.
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Old Oct 18, 2017, 7:29am   #19
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FXX started this thread I forgot to mention, they also provide some cool data sheets. One of them being the general sentiment of central bank members which is very useful during speeches
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Old Oct 24, 2017, 9:25pm   #20
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FXX started this thread Didn't have time to post today but took at trade in EURNZD off the back of euro being somewhat supported and had no tier 1 data coming out.

The news on ransquawk that provided the opportunity for a trade was uncertainty on NZ central bank reforms. This was the in the EU session open article this morning which I managed to read at 6:30am on the bus on my way to the office.

Entry 1.69578 targeted just shy of a previous high at 1.7039 for a profit.

Last edited by FXX; Oct 24, 2017 at 10:06pm.
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Old Oct 24, 2017, 10:25pm   #21
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Didn't have time to post today but took at trade in EURNZD off the back of euro being somewhat supported and had no tier 1 data coming out.

The news on ransquawk that provided the opportunity for a trade was uncertainty on central bank reforms. This was the in the EU session open article this morning which I managed to read at 6:30am on the bus on my way to the office.

Entry 1.69578 targeted just shy of a previous high at 1.7039 for a profit.
Good trade on your EURNZD pick.

I saw the news on Forexlive after I got home but that was like 6 hours after the news broke. I think the bearish sentiment is a mixture of central bank reforms and the prospect of foreign purchases of local properties being banned.
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Old Oct 24, 2017, 10:40pm   #22
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Good trade on your EURNZD pick.

I saw the news on Forexlive after I got home but that was like 6 hours after the news broke. I think the bearish sentiment is a mixture of central bank reforms and the prospect of foreign purchases of local properties being banned.
They have been struggling with property prices for a while, its a global epidemic with hot spots. I bought my house for 535k which was bought by the previous owner for 350k 5 years ago.
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Old Oct 24, 2017, 10:57pm   #23
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Any plans on how you might trade the UK GDP number later today? I haven't worked out a plan yet. USD sentiments currently wedged between the prospect of Taylor pick and rumor of 3 Senate Republican hold out over the tax bill.

I need to first clear the Australian CPI due out in 2 and a half hours.
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Old Oct 25, 2017, 7:18am   #24
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Any plans on how you might trade the UK GDP number later today? I haven't worked out a plan yet. USD sentiments currently wedged between the prospect of Taylor pick and rumor of 3 Senate Republican hold out over the tax bill.

I need to first clear the Australian CPI due out in 2 and a half hours.
Sterling is a difficult one at the moment. With trade talks lurching behind a blackmail bill and the EU beginning to loosen their hardline, it's in no man's land. If Gdp is worse than expected we could get a few pips out of EURGBP. My focus today will be Cad with policy and oil data later today. I just don't feel like there is a lot of interest in sterling. There are hardly any institutional positions according to cot data http://www.cotbase.com/
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Old Oct 25, 2017, 7:30am   #25
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Sterling is a difficult one at the moment. With trade talks lurching behind a blackmail bill and the EU beginning to loosen their hardline, it's in no man's land. If Gdp is worse than expected we could get a few pips out of EURGBP. My focus today will be Cad with policy and oil data later today. I just don't feel like there is a lot of interest in sterling. There are hardly any institutional positions according to cot data http://www.cotbase.com/
I am actually on the same page as you. The prospect of a deviation on GDP is slim. I will watch the release and see what it might bring but I don't think there will be any surprises.

I agree the opportunity will be with BOC later in the day or night in my case i.e. 1 am. I am reluctant to stay up for that. OIS data suggest that the probability of a hike in November is 18 % given what happened with retail sales last Friday. Should it be a surprise it would be a 200 - 400 pips move. The nugget will be in their statement and I am not good at interpreting changes in key words. Your Ransquawk will come in handy.
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Old Oct 25, 2017, 7:42am   #26
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I am actually on the same page as you. The prospect of a deviation on GDP is slim. I will watch the release and see what it might bring but I don't think there will be any surprises.

I agree the opportunity will be with BOC later in the day or night in my case i.e. 1 am. I am reluctant to stay up for that. OIS data suggest that the probability of a hike in November is 18 % given what happened with retail sales last Friday. Should it be a surprise it would be a 200 - 400 pips move. The nugget will be in their statement and I am not good at interpreting changes in key words. Your Ransquawk will come in handy.
I have a preliminary order to long AUDCAD. HSBC have a long on it and when that popped up on ransquawk I wondered what was the reasoning behind it. Long story short I did a bit of homework and discovered NK export 1.6 million tons of coal to China and UN sanctions have now bitten and China now need to fill that gap. 17 percent of Australia's exports are coal and they are right on their doorstep. Further to that I also found the AU government sold a coal mine 2 years ago for 1 million thinking its not really worth it and now it's worth 750 million. Canada data has been progressively worse recently so any dovish tone from that statement could trigger this swing trade. If sentiment is positive on another currency I might also take one there selling Cad against it.
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Old Oct 25, 2017, 8:24am   #27
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I have a preliminary order to long AUDCAD. HSBC have a long on it and when that popped up on ransquawk I wondered what was the reasoning behind it. Long story short I did a bit of homework and discovered NK export 1.6 million tons of coal to China and UN sanctions have now bitten and China now need to fill that gap. 17 percent of Australia's exports are coal and they are right on their doorstep. Further to that I also found the AU government sold a coal mine 2 years ago for 1 million thinking its not really worth it and now it's worth 750 million. Canada data has been progressively worse recently so any dovish tone from that statement could trigger this swing trade. If sentiment is positive on another currency I might also take one there selling Cad against it.
I don't understand the trade rationale to long AUD/CAD for the BOC event. If the BOC statement is somewhat dovish, then I would long USDCAD as currently USD is well supported. Conversely if the BOC statement is somewhat hawkish then I would sell AUDCAD as currently the sentiment on the AUD is negative due to the CPI numbers today.
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Old Oct 25, 2017, 10:47am   #28
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I don't understand the trade rationale to long AUD/CAD for the BOC event. If the BOC statement is somewhat dovish, then I would long USDCAD as currently USD is well supported. Conversely if the BOC statement is somewhat hawkish then I would sell AUDCAD as currently the sentiment on the AUD is negative due to the CPI numbers today.

Sorry it has nothing to do with the BOC event although there is a potential for the event to line up.

My rational:

My observations of data points is that any individual release doesn't change central bank policy and only serves as a sentiment driver. Inflation data globally has been soft although picking up. out of the last 65 q/q CPI stamps for AU, 52% of them have had higher expectations than the release and 91% have missed (including above and below expectations). Out of the last 44 trimmed q/q CPI 40% of them had higher expectations than the release and 75% have missed(including above and below) - I am a bit of a nutcase when it comes to details like this, it helps me solidify my judgement. With a great deal of the data points coming out of line with expectations to me is a property of an imperfect estimation methodology so there is a great deal of margin of error.

Looking at the AU CPI data q/q, previous stamp was 0.2 and today it is 0.6 which is positive. Trimmed CPI has been bouncing between 0.4 and 0.5 since July 2016 so it is range bound but more importantly not getting any worse.

China is a critical piece of AU's economy and they have been ticking up in various areas of the economy so their demand for raw materials is growing and this is confirmed by the most recent BOA policy statements and the price of ore like copper and coal. All this to me puts the BOA on hold with a slightly hawkish tone.

Moving onto Canada, exports have been weakening, Inflation weakening, business confidence is worse than earlier in the year, inventories picking up while retail sales worsening, building permits and starts worsening, worsening trade balance, foreign investment worsening. There also seems to be market chatter to the tune of BOC potentially hiking too soon and now going into a hold pattern until data improves. I don't expect a hike today and I will be looking for anything negative in the minutes that were not present in the last statement.

So in summary I see greater risks to the downside for CAD than I do AUD and looking to capture a reassertion of AUD fundamentals and a softening of the current CPI sentiment. I am hoping the BOC minutes will be the catalyst and my order is set for a breakout of this range so if it doesn't trigger then its not in issue.
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Old Oct 25, 2017, 10:57am   #29
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Sorry it has nothing to do with the BOC event although there is a potential for the event to line up.

My rational:

My observations of data points is that any individual release doesn't change central bank policy and only serves as a sentiment driver. Inflation data globally has been soft although picking up. out of the last 65 q/q CPI stamps for AU, 52% of them have had higher expectations than the release and 91% have missed (including above and below expectations). Out of the last 44 trimmed q/q CPI 40% of them had higher expectations than the release and 75% have missed(including above and below) - I am a bit of a nutcase when it comes to details like this, it helps me solidify my judgement. With a great deal of the data points coming out of line with expectations to me is a property of an imperfect estimation methodology so there is a great deal of margin of error.

Looking at the AU CPI data q/q, previous stamp was 0.2 and today it is 0.6 which is positive. Trimmed CPI has been bouncing between 0.4 and 0.5 since July 2016 so it is range bound but more importantly not getting any worse.

China is a critical piece of AU's economy and they have been ticking up in various areas of the economy so their demand for raw materials is growing and this is confirmed by the most recent BOA policy statements and the price of ore like copper and coal. All this to me puts the BOA on hold with a slightly hawkish tone.

Moving onto Canada, exports have been weakening, Inflation weakening, business confidence is worse than earlier in the year, inventories picking up while retail sales worsening, building permits and starts worsening, worsening trade balance, foreign investment worsening. There also seems to be market chatter to the tune of BOC potentially hiking too soon and now going into a hold pattern until data improves. I don't expect a hike today and I will be looking for anything negative in the minutes that were not present in the last statement.

So in summary I see greater risks to the downside for CAD than I do AUD and looking to capture a reassertion of AUD fundamentals and a softening of the current CPI sentiment. I am hoping the BOC minutes will be the catalyst and my order is set for a breakout of this range so if it doesn't trigger then its not in issue.
NAB take on the relative stage of economic growth between Canada and Australia.

rate-hike-implications-audcad_12092017.gif
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Old Oct 25, 2017, 1:15pm   #30
FXX
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FXX started this thread Trade on USDZAR

Ransquawk announcement: South African treasury says total borrowing requirement over the next 3 years to rise to 1TRN Rand. They are on the brink of another downgrade and this will seal the deal in that regard.

entry 13.78199 target 13.85371
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