David Knight -Journal

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Old Aug 22, 2017, 12:42pm   #1
Joined Aug 2017
David Knight -Journal

TRADING JOURNAL

I do my analysis on the SPX cash chart. I trade futures but all calls will be based on the cash price to save confusion.

I also trade overnight The same conditions apply.

All entries/exits are in round numbers e.g. I might say Iím looking to buy at 2400 and actually get in at 2400.3 or 2399.7.

I use TA to figure out the probabilities and the likely price levels. TA is used for analysis but I judge the market on what I see. I donít rely on a tool to tell me where to buy where to sell.

I wait for the market to move to a zone I want to trade in, then buy/sell accordingly. I do often use limit orders but Iíll only call trades that actually get triggered or it will get confusing.

I donít want to have to post boring stuff about how I removed/added a limit order etc If a price level I said I was interested in gets touched overnight Iíll let you know my position pre market.

I'll keep a running total of point gain/loss

My initial position is small and I add to winners if I can. I will average down as long as the trading idea is still valid. Thatís another reason I start small, I try to build a position.

Market action decides how long I hold/wait to enter. Once the day starts you get a feel for what sort of day it will be.

I will try to post everything I do, but my trading is more important than this journal. The trading idea is the most important thing. It doesnít matter if you didnít get every detail of what I did on any given trade since no 2 traders will trade the same anyway. There should be enough here over time to get some value.

I will certainly post what Iím thinking out of market hours. The bottom line on this journal is broad strokes, simplicity.

Can I Save You Time?

You wonít like this journal if youíve been brainwashed by Ďthe voice of tradingí with all itís rules and boring cliches.

You wonít like it if youíre the type that has a set of cast iron rules for trading and you like to trade mechanically.

On the other hand, it doesnít hurt to see how others trade...

Trading is a combination of skills and there are a lot of different ways of doing it.


Please save any questions you might have for out of cash market hours.
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Old Aug 22, 2017, 1:22pm   #2
Joined Aug 2017
Pre Market Analysis

David Knight started this thread The market is trying to rally after a 74 point drop from all time high 2491. This is sell the rally mode until there is a change in behaviour.

Yesterday made a lower low= bearish
Market breadth is weaker=bearish

Often when a correction is over we see impulsive price moves. That has not happened yet. My instinct is weíll get moves designed to confuse traders as to where we are in the cycle.

The most obvious support is 2400 and thereís a gap at 2410. I think weíll break both at some point. The question is which comes first?

A weak rally up to 2444/54 next or lower lows (below 2417 Mon low)

Since I donít know (always), the initial plan is to sell 2444/54 or buy a close above support after itís been broken or buy a lower low if I see exhaustion.

Chart

This version of the daily shows the bigger rallies/ decline because weíre already into correction mode. I actually record each sequential swing to gauge strength/weakness Itís trying to judge which side is in control.

There are 2 rallies of 134 and 132 points (symmetry) and the last rally was only 85, 74 of which have been retraced .

Short Term

Aug 18 rally 2420.6- 2440.2=19.6

Aug 19 decl 2440.2-2417.3= 22.9
rally 2417.3-2430.5=13.2

Nothing suggests buyers are in control until the next rally exceeds the previous decline in points. The market needs to close above 2440 to reverse this decline.

Could we have seen this correction coming in advance? There were some clues. Iíll talk about them in another post.
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Old Aug 22, 2017, 2:33pm   #3
Joined Aug 2017
David Knight started this thread SHORT 2436 Target GAP
ADD 2440

ILL BE OUT AT 43 IF IT GOES THERE

out -5

adv vol is against my play and I cant risk holding against a pssible gap and go day.

Should have waited for 2444 to go short but we could see that broken if strength increases and it is indeed a gap and go. If I see weakness come in I'll re assesses otherwise done for day.

Last edited by David Knight; Aug 22, 2017 at 2:58pm.
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Old Aug 22, 2017, 2:59pm   #4
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David Knight started this thread Short 2441

If it makes new high here I'm out

Keep me.... hangin' on the telephone...

out 2444 -3

running -8

Last edited by David Knight; Aug 22, 2017 at 3:24pm.
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Old Aug 22, 2017, 3:31pm   #5
Joined Aug 2017
David Knight started this thread It's at a level I wanted to short but

A - I jumped in early

B- the adv/ decl is in favour of the bulls

C- If I was right it should have turned quicker

D- If a trade idea doesn't work pretty quick I'm usually wrong

E- never let your ego get in the way there'll be plenty of chances later.

This is why I start small. Often the obvious trade is just too obvious

By the the slow progress here there is maybe a lot of shorts to remove. here
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Old Aug 22, 2017, 6:21pm   #6
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David Knight started this thread Short here at 2448 will add at 54 zone
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Old Aug 22, 2017, 8:49pm   #7
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David Knight started this thread Short 2455

av 2451.5

BTW thanks to those who have shown some support
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Old Aug 22, 2017, 10:49pm   #8
 
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Hi David, please feel free to join us bunch of professional spx analysts on the s&p competition thread.

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/indi...17-prizes.html
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