9 Net winning trades, the road to being a Pro Trader?

This is a discussion on 9 Net winning trades, the road to being a Pro Trader? within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Thanks Ct, no, you are not missing anything. I guess the problem really is that I have started with a ...

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Old Jan 12, 2017, 2:44pm   #91
 
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Thanks Ct, no, you are not missing anything. I guess the problem really is that I have started with a lower initial risk expressly for the purpose of ironing out these kinds of issues as this is a very different approach for me. And a lower initial risk kind of limits flexibility with how many lots to use without it getting to mini-proportions!

I guess the real issue for me is using the 2:1 on shorter TFs. For such a small risk amount the stops have to be around 15-20 pips which for my strategies means a 15m TF or less. But whilst targets of 30-40 pips on these TFs are possible and regular, I am not convinced they occur often enough to create the 50+% trade wins needed. A bigger initial risk amount would of course create greater flexibility... which is what I am hoping to achieve after this first trial.

What I would also like to include is a third option to just closing on target or stop, and that is to close on a reverse trade signal if neither target nor stop has been hit - as I would normally do, but I am not sure how that would screw up the accumulation plan and 9 net wins (maybe not at all!).

I will keep at it and thanks for your comments!

How are you doing so far?
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Old Jan 12, 2017, 3:39pm   #92
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Thanks Ct, no, you are not missing anything. I guess the problem really is that I have started with a lower initial risk expressly for the purpose of ironing out these kinds of issues as this is a very different approach for me. And a lower initial risk kind of limits flexibility with how many lots to use without it getting to mini-proportions!

I guess the real issue for me is using the 2:1 on shorter TFs. For such a small risk amount the stops have to be around 15-20 pips which for my strategies means a 15m TF or less. But whilst targets of 30-40 pips on these TFs are possible and regular, I am not convinced they occur often enough to create the 50+% trade wins needed. A bigger initial risk amount would of course create greater flexibility... which is what I am hoping to achieve after this first trial.

What I would also like to include is a third option to just closing on target or stop, and that is to close on a reverse trade signal if neither target nor stop has been hit - as I would normally do, but I am not sure how that would screw up the accumulation plan and 9 net wins (maybe not at all!).

I will keep at it and thanks for your comments!

How are you doing so far?
lol Still +2

I have had a lot of other stuff going on this week and as my entry rules are strict i'm missing them, unless you can be available 100% of the trading day then its difficult to trade the M5 .

Should be back in focus next week. I feel if you are going to succeed at this you have to stick to the rules.

Its difficult to think of a £20 looser in the same vein as a £500 looser (or winner) but that is really what you need to do.

Its a challenge in more ways than one
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Old Jan 12, 2017, 4:12pm   #93
 
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unless you can be available 100% of the trading day then its difficult to trade the M5 .
Absolutely! And when the market is moving in one direction it is not so easy to get in at the right time! (easier when looking in hindsight!).

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lol Still +2
I feel if you are going to succeed at this you have to stick to the rules.
Yes, I guess so. But I am wondering: What if one closes out on a reverse signal before the target or stop has been triggered and still call it a "non-win" whether it is a profit or a loss, then surely the next trade can still be worked on half the balance as normal? Does not the Project only demands 9 "wins" that actually reach the target?

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Its a challenge in more ways than one
There are many interesting angles in this Project, thats for sure!
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Old Jan 12, 2017, 4:33pm   #94
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Absolutely! And when the market is moving in one direction it is not so easy to get in at the right time! (easier when looking in hindsight!).



Yes, I guess so. But I am wondering: What if one closes out on a reverse signal before the target or stop has been triggered and still call it a "non-win" whether it is a profit or a loss, then surely the next trade can still be worked on half the balance as normal? Does not the Project only demands 9 "wins" that actually reach the target?



There are many interesting angles in this Project, thats for sure!
I wondered about similar

if your target is 100 and it falls short you close at 80 for whatever reason, how do you account for that?

i sometimes go stop Break even, how does that count?

thing is we can make it up as we go along LOL,

the target is 10k

the target is 9 net winning trades... if its 9 k and 12 trades ill take that

lets not be to hard on ourselves

plan each trade with 2:1 RR and risk 50% of the balance of net winnings

im keeping a log

we can look back and learn from it

and it definitely, IMO, is not a waste of time win or loose
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Old Jan 13, 2017, 11:07am   #95
 
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Level 2 complete. Looking now for level 3 trade......
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Old Jan 13, 2017, 4:50pm   #96
 
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Originally Posted by Chalky_trader View Post
I wondered about similar

if your target is 100 and it falls short you close at 80 for whatever reason, how do you account for that?

i sometimes go stop Break even, how does that count?

thing is we can make it up as we go along LOL,
I am adding the third option of a "manual" close anywhere between the original target and stop levels - usually because of a reverse signal in the trading model that I am using for this. Seems silly to let it continue to the stop level even when the trading model reverses the likely direction, especially if the price has fallen short of the target.....

But I am including these as "non-wins" in the same way as a stop out even if they actually have a profit (which has happened twice so far). In other words, they do not count towards the 9 NWTs but the results still impact the Trade Net Balance used for the next trade. If it is a loss then it reduces the balance, but not by as much as a stopout. If it is a gain, then it increases the balance used for the next trade but not by as much as a "Win" and does not count as a "Win".

As long as a partial win is not included as a "Win" then I can only see this as an advantage since it either reduces the impact of an otherwise full stop-out loss or even adds to the balance being used for future trades?
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Old Jan 13, 2017, 5:01pm   #97
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I am adding the third option of a "manual" close anywhere between the original target and stop levels - usually because of a reverse signal in the trading model that I am using for this. Seems silly to let it continue to the stop level even when the trading model reverses the likely direction, especially if the price has fallen short of the target.....

But I am including these as "non-wins" in the same way as a stop out even if they actually have a profit (which has happened twice so far). In other words, they do not count towards the 9 NWTs but the results still impact the Trade Net Balance used for the next trade. If it is a loss then it reduces the balance, but not by as much as a stopout. If it is a gain, then it increases the balance used for the next trade but not by as much as a "Win" and does not count as a "Win".

As long as a partial win is not included as a "Win" then I can only see this as an advantage since it either reduces the impact of an otherwise full stop-out loss or even adds to the balance being used for future trades?
i think that's a great Rule to add

Noted

Good luck
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Old Jan 13, 2017, 5:13pm   #98
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This test would be an ideal candidate for a machine designed trading system. The parameters of 1:2 RR and 9 net wins could be entered allowing the software to discover price patterns that meet the criteria that could be tested and then traded. Is anyone on the forum actively looking into machine designed trading systems that might be able to do this?
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Old Jan 14, 2017, 1:50pm   #99
 
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Just a reminder to anyone looking for 2:1 trades:

Mon 16th is Martin L. King's Birthday bank Holiday in the US and banks will be closed. Therefore volatility may be subdued.
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Old Jan 16, 2017, 10:13pm   #100
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Right lads I have an interesting twist to this saga and perhaps might dabble in it on this theme. So I started playing with options and have found it to be an interesting alternative.

So say you deposit 10 into an account. Different instruments have different payouts so say eurusd pays out 80%. You place a trade on a direction (put or call) and you set an expiry could be a few minutes, hours, week or month. Once you place your trade it's a matter of time and direction. You can close the trade in profit but its at a lower percentage. If you leave until maturity then you get the % return back of the instrument. So while it isn't operating on a 2/1 rr basis it is removing the need for a stop. The other element to this is you don't use any leverage so you can have 10 pounds in the account and bet all of it and only lose the 10

My plan is to start with 50 pounds every week and to do 10 successful trades each at full whack. On an average return of 85 percent return per successful trade i should have about 23k. I am not sure how this will function in return percentage when trading news but let's see

I can afford 50 a week and do get strings of winners that can make this possible. If I can do 5 weeks out of a year that's 100k and if I don't I lose 2600 over a year. Before I start I plan on fine tuning how I am going to run this in terms of expiry. Should be interesting

Last edited by forker; Jan 16, 2017 at 10:20pm.
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Old Jan 16, 2017, 10:23pm   #101
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I might even look at a tapering strategy to lessen the event of breaking a winning streak. Will work on the parameters
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Old Jan 17, 2017, 12:36am   #102
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I say go for it forker.
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Old Jan 17, 2017, 4:33am   #103
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Right lads I have an interesting twist to this saga and perhaps might dabble in it on this theme. So I started playing with options and have found it to be an interesting alternative.

So say you deposit 10 into an account. Different instruments have different payouts so say eurusd pays out 80%. You place a trade on a direction (put or call) and you set an expiry could be a few minutes, hours, week or month. Once you place your trade it's a matter of time and direction. You can close the trade in profit but its at a lower percentage. If you leave until maturity then you get the % return back of the instrument. So while it isn't operating on a 2/1 rr basis it is removing the need for a stop. The other element to this is you don't use any leverage so you can have 10 pounds in the account and bet all of it and only lose the 10

My plan is to start with 50 pounds every week and to do 10 successful trades each at full whack. On an average return of 85 percent return per successful trade i should have about 23k. I am not sure how this will function in return percentage when trading news but let's see

I can afford 50 a week and do get strings of winners that can make this possible. If I can do 5 weeks out of a year that's 100k and if I don't I lose 2600 over a year. Before I start I plan on fine tuning how I am going to run this in terms of expiry. Should be interesting
Really!

What you are talking about is nothing to do with real options.

You might as well say you are betting on the top 4 premier league teams at home each week. Your average return of 85% is a coin flip with 30% commission.

Surely after many years here you must have a better plan?
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Old Jan 17, 2017, 8:49am   #104
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Originally Posted by forker View Post
Right lads I have an interesting twist to this saga and perhaps might dabble in it on this theme. So I started playing with options and have found it to be an interesting alternative.

So say you deposit 10 into an account. Different instruments have different payouts so say eurusd pays out 80%. You place a trade on a direction (put or call) and you set an expiry could be a few minutes, hours, week or month. Once you place your trade it's a matter of time and direction. You can close the trade in profit but its at a lower percentage. If you leave until maturity then you get the % return back of the instrument. So while it isn't operating on a 2/1 rr basis it is removing the need for a stop. The other element to this is you don't use any leverage so you can have 10 pounds in the account and bet all of it and only lose the 10

My plan is to start with 50 pounds every week and to do 10 successful trades each at full whack. On an average return of 85 percent return per successful trade i should have about 23k. I am not sure how this will function in return percentage when trading news but let's see

I can afford 50 a week and do get strings of winners that can make this possible. If I can do 5 weeks out of a year that's 100k and if I don't I lose 2600 over a year. Before I start I plan on fine tuning how I am going to run this in terms of expiry. Should be interesting
Have to admit Options have never appealed to me, probably because i dont understand them that well.

Looking forward to your posting some results might help me out in the learning department.

Yesterday was a non event for the DAX, no setups for me, lots of news this week tho, and news creates the volatility that i need so fingers crossed for an eventful week

Good luck everyone.
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Old Jan 17, 2017, 11:28am   #105
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Really!

What you are talking about is nothing to do with real options.

You might as well say you are betting on the top 4 premier league teams at home each week. Your average return of 85% is a coin flip with 30% commission.

Surely after many years here you must have a better plan?
This is an experiment and yes it is binary options (thanks for clarifying the obvious). Please stop assuming how I am going to do this because you really are just pulling at straws saying I am operating on the basis of a coin flip. I am new to this type of trading instrument but I do have 16 years trading experience behind me so would appreciate less assumption and request you offer a more intelligent dialogue than this.
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