Trading Journal [Mateus]

This is a discussion on Trading Journal [Mateus] within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; CL. Price has breached the long term SL on the weekly and daily chart. Price is still within the range ...

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Old Oct 6, 2015, 10:48pm   #31
Joined May 2014
06-Oct-2015

Mateus started this thread CL. Price has breached the long term SL on the weekly and daily chart.

Price is still within the range started in September. Price has broken two swing highs reached in early September. The next test will be the upper limit of the range at 49.29. I assume a breakout through the upper limit of the range would signal strength in the up-move and that price is more likely to continue moving upward.

If price reverses at or before 49.29 then it is still range bound and would assume heading for the mean at about 46.20.
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Old Oct 7, 2015, 9:17am   #32
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07-Oct-15

Mateus started this thread CL just broken through upper limit of the range at 49.29 overnight but is currently trading at this level. Don't think this qualifies as a proper breakout.

There was a test of the limit and fail overnight (0200 London time).Price then rose slowly to break the limit.

Will keep watching and draw a DL in if price continues to rise.
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Old Oct 7, 2015, 5:28pm   #33
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Mateus started this thread So price has reversed and reentered the trading range. I assume this requires the trader to adjust the resistance line denoting the upper limit of the range so this is what I have done in the 2nd and 3rd charts. DL visible but was broken.

If 49.69 was the upper range limit AMT suggests price is heading for the mean so a short would be entered.

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CL just broken through upper limit of the range at 49.29 overnight but is currently trading at this level. Don't think this qualifies as a proper breakout.

There was a test of the limit and fail overnight (0200 London time).Price then rose slowly to break the limit.

Will keep watching and draw a DL in if price continues to rise.
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Old Oct 7, 2015, 8:23pm   #34
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Mateus started this thread Wedge forming. Hinge at 48.50.

*EDIT* Price made three attempts to breach 49.70 before retreating. Sellers couldn't find buyers at higher prices.

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So price has reversed and reentered the trading range. I assume this requires the trader to adjust the resistance line denoting the upper limit of the range so this is what I have done in the 2nd and 3rd charts. DL visible but was broken.

If 49.69 was the upper range limit AMT suggests price is heading for the mean so a short would be entered.
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Last edited by Mateus; Oct 7, 2015 at 8:50pm.
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Old Oct 7, 2015, 9:15pm   #35
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Mateus started this thread Price has fallen to the 50% mark of the uptrend. Does one wait to see if there is strength with the buyers or assume sellers are still in charge?

This price was also a previous swing high so might attract attention/interest.
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Old Oct 8, 2015, 10:54pm   #36
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08-oct-2015

Mateus started this thread Price ranged overnight then broke out to test and breakthrough yesterdays swing high. Price is now at the upper limit of the daily range.
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Old Oct 9, 2015, 2:56pm   #37
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09-Oct-15

Mateus started this thread Price just broken DL on 60min. Price at what may be resistance judging by long term daily chart view.
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Old Oct 9, 2015, 9:25pm   #38
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Mateus started this thread DL was broken and price trending down. Price fell to and tested the 50% mark of the up-move from yesterday. Buyers seem to have strength at this level as price is rising again.

CL has large moves between 1300 and 1400 London time.
It also moves during the night between 0100 and 0400.

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Price just broken DL on 60min. Price at what may be resistance judging by long term daily chart view.
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Old Oct 15, 2015, 3:29pm   #39
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15-Oct-15

Mateus started this thread Daily and Hourly. Price back to the mean of the daily range started in Sept. On hourly Price browk out of a range to the bottom, possible continuation downwards.
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Old Oct 18, 2015, 8:46pm   #40
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18-Oct-15 CL

Mateus started this thread Weekly, Daily, Hourly.

On Weekly the price closed above the long term SL.

Daily shows price has bounced off the mean of the recent range. Possibly heading toward the last swing high to try and test again.

Hourly shows possible continuation of bullish move upwards. New DL drawn after price reached higher high.
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Old Mar 17, 2016, 4:22pm   #41
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Mateus started this thread Db,
Please review these charts and let me know if I am on the right track. I have recently finished reading Wyckoff's year long analysis you posted.

I am curious to know if the range I have identified is too wide to be considered accumulation/distribution by large interests. I see that price has failed to reach and/or breach the high of 2000/2001 (redline) and that may have induced some selling.

There are several indications of buying climaxes in the last few weeks and volume is steadily tapering off on the current rally. Having said that it has breached the 50% point of the previous downtrend.

One of the main things I took from that Wyckoff piece is that large interests tend keep prices at levels within a range when they are accumulating or distributing stock, in preparation for the next move they anticipate happening or creating. Is it worth looking out for such ranges at the end of a trend ad trying to determine what the exit from the range will be?

Thanks

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Old Mar 17, 2016, 6:28pm   #42
 
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Db,
Please review these charts and let me know if I am on the right track. I have recently finished reading Wyckoff's year long analysis you posted.

I am curious to know if the range I have identified is too wide to be considered accumulation/distribution by large interests. I see that price has failed to reach and/or breach the high of 2000/2001 (redline) and that may have induced some selling.

There are several indications of buying climaxes in the last few weeks and volume is steadily tapering off on the current rally. Having said that it has breached the 50% point of the previous downtrend.

One of the main things I took from that Wyckoff piece is that large interests tend keep prices at levels within a range when they are accumulating or distributing stock, in preparation for the next move they anticipate happening or creating. Is it worth looking out for such ranges at the end of a trend ad trying to determine what the exit from the range will be?

Thanks
First, do not commit the error of assuming/believing that "large interests" are monolithic, that all of the monied interests have the same goals and act in concert. If they did and were, trading would be much easier. But they instead compete with each other and are continuously monitoring each other's behavior (trades) in a never-ending game of oneupsmanship. Wyckoff came up with the notion of the "composite operator" in order to prevent the trader from becoming distracted over questions of who's doing what. He suggested that the trader instead view the actions on the tape as being the result of one trader's transactions. He acknowledged that there is no such entity, that it was nothing more than a conceit to enable and encourage focus, but a great many people over the decades have been persuaded of a vast Wall Street conspiracy to defraud the public. The fact is that the public defrauds itself. Thus what you see as "climaxes" is more likely a series of thrusts and parries as the monied interests play games with each other.

Second, take care to read your charts from left to right. Yes, one needs to start somewhere in order to understand how he got to his present situation. This is what Wyckoff did. He always "looked to the left" to see where he'd been but focused on the present in order to guide his choices. This was/is not so much a matter of prediction as of determining the probabilities of one course of action over another. You should pick up on this the next time you read the analysis.

Third, accumulation and distribution take place in bases. The bases look different due to the objectives of each. But a thousand points is not a base. Price reached 4700 before plunging, climaxing, testing its low, then working its way back to 4700. The Money then spent nine weeks in distribution. How do we know this? Partly due to the failure of price to break out and partly due to the two upthrusts that had no result other than to encourage the ignorant to buy. That particular base was only two hundred points wide.

Price then plunged again in January and February for whatever reasons. Whatever objectives they had for their distribution were reached and they re-entered (though they never really left) at 3900 to support price and drive it higher, and we are now in the middle of all that, at 4300, a "neutral" position.

Accumulation and distribution go on continuously, some of it more important and "market-moving" than others. The retracements that occur after range breakouts are the product of distribution. If latent demand is sufficient, price will continue its rise. If it isn't, it won't. The Money doesn't care. They already have theirs. If the demand appears to have legs, they may even buy back into the move, but that involves a different set of objectives.

Therefore, study and evaluate where you've been. This is a significant part of preparation. Then look at where you are and how you got there. Study the price movement and price position along with volume to determine the probabilities of future movement up, down, or sideways. Given the strength shown five weeks ago with the accompanying volume, I suspect Wyckoff would have exited whatever shorts he may have had and begun to re-enter on the long side, accumulating his own position, looking for signs that the move was running out of steam and getting ready to range or to reverse. So far there are no such signs in this timeframe with this bar interval, at least none that I see.

Db
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Old Mar 18, 2016, 2:03pm   #43
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Therefore, study and evaluate where you've been. This is a significant part of preparation. Then look at where you are and how you got there. Study the price movement and price position along with volume to determine the probabilities of future movement up, down, or sideways. Given the strength shown five weeks ago with the accompanying volume, I suspect Wyckoff would have exited whatever shorts he may have had and begun to re-enter on the long side, accumulating his own position, looking for signs that the move was running out of steam and getting ready to range or to reverse. So far there are no such signs in this timeframe with this bar interval, at least none that I see.

Db
Thanks. Reading the chart from left to right isn't as easy as one assumes and requires patience so I will keep trying until I get it right.

I've fanned the DL at swing lows that appear to be small selling climaxes on the retracements using the volume chart. I assumed therefor that buyers have more strength at these points, confirmed by the higher highs.

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Old Mar 18, 2016, 4:29pm   #44
 
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You're mixing Wyckoff with the SLA, which is fine if you have a solid footing in Wyckoff, but confusing otherwise. Wyckoff doesn't use "demand lines" and the SLA doesn't incorporate volume. In any case, Wyckoff would most likely be more concerned with the present and the immediate past rather than with what happened seven years ago.

What exactly are you trying to determine that will help you make a decision tomorrow?

Db
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Old Mar 18, 2016, 6:56pm   #45
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You're mixing Wyckoff with the SLA, which is fine if you have a solid footing in Wyckoff, but confusing otherwise. Wyckoff doesn't use "demand lines" and the SLA doesn't incorporate volume. In any case, Wyckoff would most likely be more concerned with the present and the immediate past rather than with what happened seven years ago.

What exactly are you trying to determine that will help you make a decision tomorrow?

Db
I am trying to determine where we are at this time. I'm not familiar with the NQ and haven't been following it. Broadly speaking I am trying to become comfortable enough with the concepts involved with trading to choose any instrument and accurately interpret the information provided by price and volume.

Given what you have said above and in previous posts about the importance of Wyckoff, would you agree it would be worthwile for me to continue to study the Wyckoff material until I have the solid footing you mentioned?
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