My journey to long term consistency

This is a discussion on My journey to long term consistency within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Ok so I have gone through all my trades and of the ones that started going against me , or ...

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Old Dec 15, 2017, 2:13pm   #609
Joined Aug 2015
DrSafari started this thread Ok so I have gone through all my trades and of the ones that started going against me , or went against me after some time 13 of them hit my SL so ended in a loser and 14 of them ended in me closing the position with a profit. I did not keep track of how much the winners and the losers are BUT ...

1) I noticed I almost always followed my system i.e.: I let my trades run. And we know that end result is positive.

2) 13 losers and 14 winners are 27 trades. If I would close as soon as price starts going against me (i'm not talking minor fluctuations here but like halfway my stop loss or something) it would mean I'd have 27 losers, small losers but losers nonetheless. Even if the 14 winners do not completely cancel out the 13 losers I doubt I would lose more as 27 small losers.

Conclusion is: I should keep the trades open and just follow the system. Last trade was a loser because I let fear get the best of me because of my recent losers.

Glad I cleared this one up.
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Old Dec 15, 2017, 4:53pm   #610
Joined Aug 2015
DrSafari started this thread The curse is broken!!!! (hopefully )

Long NASDAQ-100

Net P/L: +7.15 points (+18.23 €)
Amount: 3 contracts

Opening Rate 6432.98
Close Rate 6440.13


Open time 15/12/2017 16:03:10
Close Time 15/12/2017 16:20:12


Stop loss: fixed SL below lowest low


1 min chart
15-12-2017_1min_edited.jpg


Reason of closure: trailing SL, activated as soon as price reached the all time high (for the reason of there being no levels yet obviously)


Comments
The wait for the final retracement took some time but that has happened before. As soon as my setup got triggered I took a long position but price didn't move much after that and stayed stagnant. Now I know I should keep the position until my SL is hit or until I can put a trailing SL in place. The beauty of this thing is that I wasn't constantly worrying about whether I should close or not. A beautiful sort of calm came over me and in that instant everything was well. A losing trade or a winning one didn't matter, profit or loss didn't matter. The only thing that mattered was the system. THIS! This is the correct mindset for trading. This is the mindset I remembered having near the end of my demo trades as well. I recognize the feeling.

Even when entering I did not hesitate, my mind was very clear again. All thanks to my research, which wouldn't be possible if I didn't keep a detailed journal. I will just keep executing my system now, no expectations, just plain boring execution
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Old Dec 21, 2017, 12:00pm   #611
Joined Aug 2015
DrSafari started this thread Long NASDAQ-100

Net P/L: -13.98 points (-35.51 €)
Amount: 3 contracts

Opening Rate 6515.98
Close Rate 6502.00


Open time 19/12/2017 16:02:59
Close Time 19/12/2017 16:24:26


Stop loss: fixed SL below lowest low


5 min chart
19-12-2017_5min.jpg

1 min chart
19-12-2017_1min.jpg


Reason of closure: SL got hit

Comments
Seems like just a legitimate loser. Move was a tiny bit bigger than 25 points so based myself on the 5 min chart.
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Old Dec 21, 2017, 1:24pm   #612
Joined Aug 2015
DrSafari started this thread Long NASDAQ-100

Net P/L: -17.25 points (-43.50 €)
Amount: 3 contracts

Opening Rate 6484.88
Close Rate 6467.63


Open time 19/12/2017 16:10:31
Close Time 19/12/2017 16:41:39


Stop loss: fixed SL below lowest low


5 min chart
20-12-2017_5min.jpg

1 min chart
20-12-2017_1min.jpg


Reason of closure: SL got hit

Comments
Another one of these very big moves. But it was smaller than 65 points so I took it. Trade went nowhere but I did not manually close it (as determined earlier) and my SL got hit.

Oh, it just barely went through my SL and then went steadily up until the predefined 6493 level and bounced off of that. Here is the extended 5 min chart.:
20-12-2017_5min_extended.jpg


Let's talk about these recent developments but I'm going to do this in a different post.
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Old Dec 21, 2017, 2:35pm   #613
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DrSafari started this thread My thoughts are all over the place so I'm just going to write them down to try to structure them a bit. I am currently losing money with my real account. My system should have a win rate of 75% but right now it's even less than 50%. This is on only 15 trades so it could be a bad streak. I am going to list all the possible explanations for this and then see what course of action I should take.

1) It's just a bad streak, nothing more nothing less
2) Market conditions have changed and are different from my 10 months of testing.
3) Market just happens to "randomly" have more big moves right now and my system is not well equipped to handle those (the few trades with big moves I took during 10 months testing phase aren't enough to be statistically relevant)
4) I am somehow taking trades I normally wouldn't take (although I have already reviewed my trades and this is not something I observed)

Hmm already a lot less cluttered, I was trying to come up with more points but it seems I have no more points. Ok so let's move on.

If we take point 1 together with point 3 they both become a lot less likely. I just happen to have a bad streak juuuust at the exact same time the market happens to "randomly" have more big moves? That's a whole lot of coincidence. However, point 1 is likely to be caused by point 3. If the market just happens to randomly have more big moves right now it could be that it affects my system causing a bad streak. And that would mean my system is not well equipped to handle those big moves. If this is true overall my system should cancel out the randomness and be profitable over time. (I can still of course come up with a way to handle those big moves better and become even more profitable.)

But again, why choose randomness as an explanation when you have point 2 sitting right there. Market conditions have changed (2) causing a lot of big moves (3) causing my bad streak (1) because my system is not well equipped to handle those. The only point that doesn't seem to have anything to do with this is (4). Especially so since I already checked it out (it's always possible I missed something though) so for now I'll dismiss point 4.

So for me now my next course of action is simple. Backtest the **** out of the system, gather as much data as possible and be as consistent as possible. I should probably put all this information in some kind of database so I can draft relevant statistics from it if I want to make an adaptation from my system (not sure how feasible this will be).

Backtesting is good but what on earth will I do with the results? Will my system still be sufficiently profitable with these different market conditions? If not, I will have to adapt my system. How will I adapt it? Will I be able to see what to adapt based on the data of the backtest? Is there some way I can "easily" extract that data (that's why I mentioned the database). If I adapted it I need to run the backtest again. And I need to do it manually going from left side of the chart to the right without knowing what the next candle will bring, else it won't work. So this will be a ****load of work.

However, a 10 month period of profitability can't just be swept under the carpet either. So I am thinking I'm having to adapt my system for the current market conditions, so probably only taking into account these big moves by either not taking them or come up with a slightly different approach for them.

And that's why I need to backtest. So we can verify this.


This is all another lesson of humility from the markets. Another wake up call to take this even more serious. I know from life experience that one should persevere. I'm at a point where a lot of people usually quit. At some point the challenge seems insurmountable or would require such a vast amount of effort that they just give up. I already have "invested" a lot of money in the markets for learning, it would be a shame to give up now.

If it weren't for these prior life lessons I would have given up too. It just bloody sucks that right when you think you're almost there you get kicked to the ground again


I was also thinking about stopping trading until I have things sorted out or not. But I figure the more experience the better so I'm going to keep on trading but to be careful for the bigger moves. The normal move trades I am going to be trading according to my system. It's possible that for the bigger moves I will be using discretionary trading. Maybe this is foolish but meanwhile I have learned to read the market a lot better AND i'm trading small sums AND with money I can afford to lose. The only thing that can happen is blow up my 1k account (now only 900 ) and having learned a bunch of stuff in the process.
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Old Jan 17, 2018, 12:27pm   #614
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DrSafari started this thread I'm not dead, but maybe it's not bad to have taken a break. I'm at a new work project and it's quite busy at the moment, however I only work 3 days at the office so I should be able to trade on thursday and friday (or any other two days)
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Old Jan 17, 2018, 12:34pm   #615
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DrSafari View Post
I'm not dead, but maybe it's not bad to have taken a break. I'm at a new work project and it's quite busy at the moment, however I only work 3 days at the office so I should be able to trade on thursday and friday (or any other two days)
This might help you: If not then ignore it.

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....Indicators show the past. Price Action "Indicates" the future.
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