Firewalker's Journey: A path of discovery in search for enlightenment

This is a discussion on Firewalker's Journey: A path of discovery in search for enlightenment within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by firewalker99 Well eh, because my broker has no backfill and I don't have a free data provider... ...

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Old Aug 9, 2006, 4:33pm   #121
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by firewalker99
Well eh, because my broker has no backfill and I don't have a free data provider...
And how much money have you lost so far?
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Old Aug 9, 2006, 10:13pm   #122
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dbphoenix
And how much money have you lost so far?
Don't really see the relevance in posting that on a public forum.
For some the amount will look a lot, for others it would be sustainable. For me, it was without the limits of tolerable and more than I could afford to lose. I'm not talking about thousands, no it's more, much more. Anyway, this is not my main concern for the moment as I abandoned the quest for gaining it back. Now, all I want to do is learn how to trade.

Yes, I should never have started trading realtime in the first place.
Yes, I was a stupid thing to do.
Yes, I let emotions take control over me.
and so on...

I suppose you're trying to tell me get a decent data provider... Esignal or the likes?
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Old Aug 9, 2006, 10:32pm   #123
 
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What I'm suggesting is that you've been penny wise and pound foolish. While trying to save money, you've been trading without a setup, you haven't done any testing, you haven't developed a trading plan. This route has wound up costing you far more than you would have spent on access to historical intraday FDAX charts. Even so, when I ask why you haven't done the backtesting, you respond that your broker has no backfill and you don't have a free data provider.

If you want to be a winning trader, you at the very least have to do what winning traders do, and that, at a minimum, means putting together a trading plan, and putting together a trading plan requires, at a minimum, access to historical charts. If you want to collect these charts day by day for a year or more for "free", that's up to you. But if you want to get on with it, I suggest you subscribe to Sierra Charts, which costs less than $20/mo and which can use IB as a free datafeed, if you have an account with IB. If you don't have an account with IB, I suggest you get one.

Db
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Old Aug 9, 2006, 10:39pm   #124
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dbphoenix
What I'm suggesting is that you've been penny wise and pound foolish. While trying to save money, you've been trading without a setup, you haven't done any testing, you haven't developed a trading plan. This route has wound up costing you far more than you would have spent on access to historical intraday FDAX charts. Even so, when I ask why you haven't done the backtesting, you respond that your broker has no backfill and you don't have a free data provider.

If you want to be a winning trader, you at the very least have to do what winning traders do, and that, at a minimum, means putting together a trading plan, and putting together a trading plan requires, at a minimum, access to historical charts. If you want to collect these charts day by day for a year or more for "free", that's up to you. But if you want to get on with it, I suggest you subscribe to Sierra Charts, which costs less than $20/mo and which can use IB as a free datafeed, if you have an account with IB. If you don't have an account with IB, I suggest you get one.

Db
Thanks for the advice, I'll look into it. Btw I have an IB account.

I have done backtesting on ER2 using Trademaven though, you don't say anything about that? Or are you suggesting I have to develop a totally different strategy for both markets because I'd like to trade DAX in the mornings and ER2 in the afternoon/evening (local time).
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Old Aug 9, 2006, 11:37pm   #125
 
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In order to answer your question, I'd have to know what your backtesting consists of and what the results are.

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Old Aug 9, 2006, 11:52pm   #126
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dbphoenix
In order to answer your question, I'd have to know what your backtesting consists of and what the results are.

Db
Backtesting consisted of replaying the day with fast forward. "Results" if you can call them that were:

Most of the time I didn't find usefuls setups, as seems to be the case here again. When I did found one either my stop was triggered or the trade never reached my target before turning back to breakeven. Of course there were succesful ones also, but you could count them on one hand.

Have to admit that testing wasn't as rigorous as you probably would like to see. But my question remains: if I were to test my plan on ER2 or any other for that matter, is there any reason so suspect it could have a different result depending on each market? Some say yes, because every market is different in it's own way. Others say no, because the basic principles that have existed before, still do, regardless of the time frame, market, instrument,...
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Old Aug 9, 2006, 11:59pm   #127
 
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FW, what I would like to see is of no importance whatsoever. What is important is whatever puts you into the black.

If you've read the threads below on trading plans and trading journals, plus the posts in the PV and S/R threads, and you think that backtesting consists of "replaying the day with fast forward", then I have to cry Uncle.

Best of luck to you in your trading.

Db
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Old Aug 10, 2006, 12:03am   #128
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dbphoenix
FW, what I would like to see is of no importance whatsoever. What is important is whatever puts you into the black.

If you've read the threads below on trading plans and trading journals, plus the posts in the PV and S/R threads, and you think that backtesting consists of "replaying the day with fast forward", then I have to cry Uncle.

Best of luck to you in your trading.

Db
No, that's not what I think now backtesting should consist of. I was just stating what I did at that particular time... Although I do think that replaying the day can be of use instead of just looking at old charts? (with fast forward I didn't mean skipping through the day, but playing "as-if" in real time but 3 times as fast, not 100 if tha'ts what you thought I meant).
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Old Aug 10, 2006, 12:23am   #129
 
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August 9 Summary

firewalker99 started this thread * Added possible R from previous day @ 5695 = confirmed throughout the day

* Signals:
- breakthrough 5675 around 1000, no retracement though and further decline below 5650
- breakthrough 5650 at 1045, retracement back to 5650: short entry at 1200, first target was 5636 (ATR=7), stoploss at 5657 was hit around 1245
- clear breakthrough 5695 at 1500, no retracement back to that line however
- breakthrough around 2045 back below 5695 was not on minimum 3 WRB closing near low so no clear signal and even if it were clear, no retrace happened

* Appears to be a "zone" around 5615-5620 where price hesitates (already noticed on previous weekly and previous monthly chart)

5675 didn't seem to offer much S/R...
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Last edited by firewalker99; Aug 10, 2006 at 12:40am.
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Old Aug 10, 2006, 12:36am   #130
 
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August 10 Preparation

firewalker99 started this thread * Attached: updated monthly chart + chart of previous 2 days
* Notice price closed around same price as opening on previous day
* Keep an eye on trade balance news (stay out of market)
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Old Aug 10, 2006, 11:19pm   #131
 
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Hi firewalker,

I hope you don't mind me taking the libety of posting this. From the little DAX data I have this may not work but an option from my point of view for a strategy you could look at and maybe work with?

Basically the series of higher highs and higher lows building up to the S/R levels followed by a new candle above the S/R would then signal a trade. Vica versa in a downtrend. At least with this you have a solid ground to apply to back and forward testing. Exit strategy is something to work on.

As you know my PA knowledge is limited and I'm sure the more exerienced could voice their opinion of the validity of the approach and I think volumes may help you too but its an idea?!

My apologies if this has just filled your head with more opinions rather than helping.
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Old Aug 11, 2006, 12:26am   #132
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Hi fw,

Here's a different take with a lot of hindsight analysis. I would actually like to here opinions about wide range bodies as s/r zones.
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Old Aug 11, 2006, 9:22am   #133
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rainman2
Hi fw,

Here's a different take with a lot of hindsight analysis. I would actually like to here opinions about wide range bodies as s/r zones.
Take a look at my trading plan, I'm actually trying out something based on WRB breakouts. Thanks for the reply, but I think your analysis does include quite some hindsight analysis. If you're able to take those positions in real time (being on the right side of every trade each time) than congratulations. Am I right when assuming you're buying the first bar that breaks through S/R? Don't know what your target/exits are (apparently after the trendline was broken), but I've tried that approach too at one time, and it left me with empty pockets. Take a look at one of my older charts. Of course a lot has to do with drawing the "right" S/R lines.
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Old Aug 11, 2006, 9:47am   #134
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wasp
I hope you don't mind me taking the libety of posting this. From the little DAX data I have this may not work but an option from my point of view for a strategy you could look at and maybe work with?

As you know my PA knowledge is limited and I'm sure the more exerienced could voice their opinion of the validity of the approach and I think volumes may help you too but its an idea?!
Don't mind at all. Don't know if your price knowledge is so limited, I think mine could be even less. Volume is left out of the equation because it kept throwing be confusing signals. I saw things on the chart that indicated a possible long position but volume showed me otherwise and vice versa. So perhaps I was looking too much at it, instead of looking at it only at pivotal points like at S/R zones, tops, bottoms... Still haven't figured that one out though.

I am trying to find a strategy based on S/R so any opinion on the matter can be helpful, if not worth discussing for what I'm concerned. About what I've learned and heard people comment on my charts, I'd say you focused on a couple of bars in particular (marked by the red lines) which seem a bit like you were looking for something to confirm what you had in mind. If that's the case one can always find some confirmation of his or her ideas. For example: at point 10 I'm assuming it's gonna be a retest of point 1, after which price could plummet down. Say I were looking for signals to confirm that assumption I would have the second bar that touches 5695 but reaches lower. Three bars further I'd have a WRB downbar right down to your blue line. After which I'd short. I took a look at volume and noticed high volume at the upbar (point 9) which is generally considered as a sign of weakness. So I'd have three signals confirming my entry.

But back to your entries, I think they all had potential as none of them went in the wrong direction afterwards, although you bought at the high.
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Old Aug 11, 2006, 9:56am   #135
 
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August 10 Summary

firewalker99 started this thread Trades:
* Breakthrough at 1000, waited for retracement to 5625, then shorted. ATR=7 ==> first target 5611, second 5604 both were succesfull. No further possible entries.
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