Firewalker's Journey: A path of discovery in search for enlightenment

This is a discussion on Firewalker's Journey: A path of discovery in search for enlightenment within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Yes barjon, Your post is helpful. And although some posts are more abstract and theoretical, perhaps some of them are ...

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Old Aug 18, 2006, 11:27am   #201
 
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firewalker99 started this thread Yes barjon, Your post is helpful. And although some posts are more abstract and theoretical, perhaps some of them are - believe it or not - helpful.

Quote:
Originally Posted by barjon
Similarly, it's not possible to answer questions such as what expectancy, what stop, what "target" etc in a general sense since the answers are all specific to the particular method and set-up employed.
You say it's not possible to answer that kind of questions without a clearly defined and outlined setup/plan, but if you've seen dbphoenix's task, that's exactly what he wants newbies to do now: identifying stops given only that you're trading S/R breakouts.


Quote:
Originally Posted by barjon
You seem to have chosen DAX as your trading instrument and you have printed off many charts and examined them and I'm assuming you have already determined your preferred style in terms of long term, medium, term, short term etc.
Correct, I'm looking for a trading system which allows me to do 3-5 trades a day, no overnights, holding positions on average 15 minutes to an hour, although I have no restrictions on this.

Quote:
Originally Posted by barjon
eg: what is a "break" of s/r - one tick, a close, x%, or what - what is "significant" - what degree of adverse move will invalidate the trade etc, etc.
Agreed, the problem is I find myself unable to take a trade because most of the time the signals are appearing in real time, but to take profit of them I would need to "predict" the signals themselves. Suppose I want to trade breakouts from the moment price moved through R for 5 points. Enter long at the point. I've found through backtesting that chasing a breakout causes me to lose more than to win. I agree it's up to me to find the right way to take the breakout, therefore I was looking for signals BEFORE that to enter and because I was looking to price (and initially also volume) to give me that hint, I started reading up on the PV thread and posting questions there.

Quote:
Originally Posted by barjon
That back testing will then answer questions about expectancy, stop loss, "target" etc.
Ok, but put yourself in my place, or anybody else out there who's looking for something which produces consistent profits. Would you not be asking yourself in the backtesting what you want to see? Is it therefore that far fetched that an unexperienced trader wants to learn from others by asking them questions like "what would be a comfortable W/R, P/L ratio for you", "what kind of means are there to determine your target", "how much backtesting did you do"? No, these questions aren't meant to be parasitical. No, this doesn't imlpy the trader would just copy this information. In fact, having had the discussing about expectancy my arguments would only show that I'm not taking what others say for granted and I am indeed finding out for myself by thinking about it. So we are left out with two options. The first is to follow the minimalistic guidelines which basically come down to figuring it all out for themselves. The second is going against the flow, argumenting and discussing what others take for granted only to try and comprehend what for them is evident (perhaps even trivial) but what for the newbie at first seems an impossible task. By argumenting and publicly displaying their lack of understanding they risk being ridiculed, laughed at but they don't care. They have nothing to lose. On the other hand, it seems as if the ones who are trying to help others choose direction and a possible path to success, seem to have a lot to lose by sharing some practical, concrete information that could lift off the newbie into new and possible beneficial ventures. Yes, “The task of the modern educator is not to cut down jungles, but to irrigate deserts." as someone once said, but for the moment I'm only seeing fata morganas.
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Old Aug 18, 2006, 11:49am   #202
 
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Journal charts & comments

firewalker99 started this thread For all those wondering where the daily charts & comments went. No, I haven't quit analyzing them. No I'm not being lazy and giving up. I've been continuining my work as I've said in backtesting and papertrading realtime. Implying that I'm not "doing the work" merely because I'm posting a couple of messages on this forum would be signs of short-sightedness.
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Old Aug 18, 2006, 12:23pm   #203
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Quote:
Originally Posted by firewalker99
Yes barjon, Your post is helpful. And although some posts are more abstract and theoretical, perhaps some of them are - believe it or not - helpful.






Ok, but put yourself in my place, or anybody else out there who's looking for something which produces consistent profits. Would you not be asking yourself in the backtesting what you want to see? Is it therefore that far fetched that an unexperienced trader wants to learn from others by asking them questions like "what would be a comfortable W/R, P/L ratio for you", "what kind of means are there to determine your target", "how much backtesting did you do"? No, these questions aren't meant to be parasitical. No, this doesn't imlpy the trader would just copy this information. In fact, having had the discussing about expectancy my arguments would only show that I'm not taking what others say for granted and I am indeed finding out for myself by thinking about it. So we are left out with two options. The first is to follow the minimalistic guidelines which basically come down to figuring it all out for themselves. The second is going against the flow, argumenting and discussing what others take for granted only to try and comprehend what for them is evident (perhaps even trivial) but what for the newbie at first seems an impossible task. By argumenting and publicly displaying their lack of understanding they risk being ridiculed, laughed at but they don't care. They have nothing to lose. On the other hand, it seems as if the ones who are trying to help others choose direction and a possible path to success, seem to have a lot to lose by sharing some practical, concrete information that could lift off the newbie into new and possible beneficial ventures. Yes, “The task of the modern educator is not to cut down jungles, but to irrigate deserts." as someone once said, but for the moment I'm only seeing fata morganas.
There is so much to take into consideration in the placing of stops, especially the instrument that you are trading, that it is virtually impossible to teach anyone where to put them. That is why so few venture an opinion as to where they should be and why it is one of the most common questions asked.

I tell you, now, that if I was to put a chart on the thread that I was trading at the time and it told where my stop was, any criticism from anyone would start me worrying about it, whereas, at present, I am satisfied with where it is.

The same goes for backtesting and all the rest. I don't backtest too far, I can't see much point in it (going back too far in time, I mean) but I have come to a system that seems to work PROVIDED I don't have second thoughts and mess about. In other words, it's all about discipline. It's up to you, man, and that's all there is.

There is an article in T2W archives about probability. What I remember about it is that how much you lose is the only thing, in a trade, that you have any control over. As far as I am concerned, 1:5 or 1:2 ratios are in the future and to be taken in an opportunistic way. Who knows what is in the future, except how much one can lose?

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Old Aug 18, 2006, 12:30pm   #204
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Splitlink
There is so much to take into consideration in the placing of stops, especially the instrument that you are trading, that it is virtually impossible to teach anyone where to put them. That is why so few venture an opinion as to where they should be and why it is one of the most common questions asked.
Perhaps, but I've never raised it myself. I'm perfectly happing with placing my stop at ATR.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Splitlink
There is an article in T2W archives about probability. What I remember about it is that how much you lose is the only thing, in a trade, that you have any control over. As far as I am concerned, 1:5 or 1:2 ratios are in the future and to be taken in an opportunistic way. Who knows what is in the future, except how much one can lose?
Of course that ratio means nothing if you're trading the size of half your account... Example: I would never risk more than 2% of my account on a single trade" and after 3 successive losing trades, only 1%.
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Old Aug 18, 2006, 12:46pm   #205
 
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Quote:
Correct, I'm looking for a trading system which allows me to do 3-5 trades a day, no overnights, holding positions on average 15 minutes to an hour, although I have no restrictions on this.
I take it that you realise that of all the trading styles this is the most difficult and labour intensive way to trade
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Old Aug 18, 2006, 1:16pm   #206
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Quote:
Originally Posted by firewalker99
Perhaps, but I've never raised it myself. I'm perfectly happing with placing my stop at ATR.



Of course that ratio means nothing if you're trading the size of half your account... Example: I would never risk more than 2% of my account on a single trade" and after 3 successive losing trades, only 1%.
I agree with db, here, I do not go for targets. If you had three small losses out of your five trades and your forth gave you a level that would let you break even for the day, what would you do?

This is the difference between one trader and another and why, most of the time, you'll only get opinions.. I'd probably break even and to hell with the 5th trade that day, whereas another would take a completely different view.

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Old Aug 18, 2006, 1:45pm   #207
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dc2000
I take it that you realise that of all the trading styles this is the most difficult and labour intensive way to trade
Why? If you mean labour intensive because you have to sit at your screen all day, that's fine by me. Otherwise can you tell me why eg scalping or swing trading is different in difficulty level?
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Old Aug 18, 2006, 1:47pm   #208
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by firewalker99
As I would be looking for the best possible entry, this would have to be less then 4 ticks.

*Edit: I would only take breakouts following the direction of the trend.
A. How many?

B. Trend is not yet an issue.
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Old Aug 18, 2006, 1:53pm   #209
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by dbphoenix
A. How many?
3
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Old Aug 18, 2006, 2:06pm   #210
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by firewalker99
3
Copy out the first intraday chart and annotate every penetration of S/R of three ticks or more.
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