Euro Daily Trader

This is a discussion on Euro Daily Trader within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Wow. Another loss today (Weds 26th). Methinks this EA is toast. Either that or some canny broker has figured out ...

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Old Oct 26, 2011, 9:58pm   #25
 
7 Posts
Joined Oct 2011
Re: Euro Daily Trader

Wow. Another loss today (Weds 26th). Methinks this EA is toast. Either that or some canny broker has figured out how to wash'n'rinse any trades to flush out the 19pips on every trade that is made like clockwork around the same time each day. Time to change the algorithm, or go get a job flipping burgers guys....
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Old Oct 29, 2011, 7:06am   #26
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

wiseambitions started this thread Friday: Forced closure before 10pm UK time, let's call that a break even.... depends whether you bagged a couple of pips or lost a few...

It makes the week 2 break evens, 2 losses and 1 no trade. No winners

There's one day left to possibly trade in October, and it is interesting to say that the 5 wins of the month, (that's all there were), so far, in spite of at least 10 losses, are enough to bring the total to not many pips below zero. I'd say in a range -5 to -25 depending on luck and slippage.

Just as much as we all desperately wanted the system to do better, I have watched other systems have a terrible time too, like down over 150 points. (for similar % risk and TP). It would be nice if Monday offered a win too

Hope for everyone's benefit - the promoters and the users (how many are still patient I would not know) - that November turns a corner for the better. It would be nice of Monday offered a winning trade too
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Old Nov 1, 2011, 11:34am   #27
Joined Sep 2011
Re: Euro Daily Trader

And so....

The roller coaster ride that was October finished with a profit of 33 pips representing just 3.47% growth at 2% flat risk. Rather disappointing after the bumper September, but then still a profit after all.

It is worth pointing out of course that because of the advantageous SL/TP ratio that the system has, 33 pips on EDT is worth quite a bit more in terms of profit to the trader than on most other systems. You would need to win 78 pips on FMT for example to acheive the same profit.

This means that since starting live trading on June 1st, we have had only one losing month which was August which ended with a loss of 4 pips. The stats (full details on the website) now show that since June 1st:

Euro Daily Trader has won 767 pips representing 80.73% growth at 2% flat risk (average of over 16% per month)

Using EDT's built in MM system to maximise profit:

At 2% risk this has more than doubled a starting bank of $10,000 to $21,513.

At 3% risk the same $10,000 bank has trebled to $30,637.

And at 4% risk your $10,000 is now worth $42,819

Is there more to come? We certainly hope so. And although we are always very cautious about using past history to predict the future, guess which were by far the best two months of 2010 in our back tests? Take a look at the results page on the website for the answer to that one.

Apologies to those on this thread for an absence, I got caught up in a rather complicated daylight saving time problem which resulted in EDT EA v3.0 being released and I also took a long ago booked holiday in half term week. I will read back through the proceeding posts and try and answer any outstanding questions.

Mike
The Forex Club
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Old Nov 1, 2011, 11:42am   #28
Joined Sep 2011
Re: Euro Daily Trader

[QUOTE=ggjr61;1705978]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Forex View Post

Mike:

If you strongly recommend this setting, you might consider changing the default to "True".
Thank you for this suggestion ggjr61, it was so obvious that it was overlooked!

Now been rectified and all new EA's going out have "true" as default.

Thanks again.

Mike
The Forex Club
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Old Nov 1, 2011, 11:54am   #29
Joined Oct 2010
Re: Euro Daily Trader

wiseambitions started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike Forex View Post
And so....

The roller coaster ride that was October finished with a profit of 33 pips representing just 3.47% growth at 2% flat risk. Rather disappointing after the bumper September, but then still a profit after all.

It is worth pointing out of course that because of the advantageous SL/TP ratio that the system has, 33 pips on EDT is worth quite a bit more in terms of profit to the trader than on most other systems. You would need to win 78 pips on FMT for example to acheive the same profit..

Mike
The Forex Club
Yes and FMT might have lost a person 275 pips in the month (at standard settings!)


Let's hope a bit of normality is being restored

Last edited by wiseambitions; Nov 1, 2011 at 12:11pm.
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Old Nov 1, 2011, 12:45pm   #30
Joined Sep 2011
Re: Euro Daily Trader

Quote:
Originally Posted by humbyhumb View Post
Have been following this for a while now and I have an unease in that we're in some kind of heads or tails - 39 pips if you win, 19 pips if you lose kind of set up. .
I can see from the posts that this really was a bad time to go AWOL and again apologies for that.

Firstly, let me address this 50:50 coin toss theory. EDT has been developed not only to try and read the direction of the market, but also the strength of that direction. Please realise that in order to have a winning trade, the market has to travel more than twice as far in the desired direction for that to be achieved. Please feel free to experiment yourself. Pick a currency pair, pick a time and just set a trade with a TP twice the size of the SL. Believe me this is no coin toss!

EDT has had a very rough ride in the last two weeks. In all previous tests the maximum number of losses in a row was 9. But this is actually misleading because having a BE of -1 pip, the backtest also records these "BE" trades as a loss. In actual fact, the most full losses (-19 pips) hit on the run in all our tests was 6. This was almost equalled the last two weeks, given that between the 18th and the 26th, there were 6 losses punctuated by just one BE trade. I do not want this to sound like an excuse, but with what was happening in Europe and in particular the Euro crises during October, the market has been extremely difficult for anyone to predict.

So is EDT dead? Well, errr... hang on a minute. Even after that extremely rough ride it did actually make a profit in October didn't it? And reading around other forums, there are in fact very few systems that did make a profit last month and quite a few that made a pretty heavy loss.

So why all these strange numbers? Why a TP of 39 and not 40? Why a SL of 19 and not a nice round figure of 20? And in particular, why the hell would we choose a BE value of -1 pip? Especially when that records as a loss on all the tests?

The answer to that is easy. Those are the optimum values that will produce the maximum profits for EDT users. Are we going to explain exactly what lies behind the EA's trading decisions? I will give you a very straight (although I know this will not be the most popular) answer. I'm sorry but no we are not. Just in the same way that Coca Cola would not give you their ingredient list.

We have more plans for EDT. EDT v4.0 is being forward tested as we speak and looks like adding about 19% to the profit figures. Members of The Forex Club will receive that version as a free upgrade.

.....

Just read back through the posts to see if I missed anything and the most apparent thing is your frustrations at that run of losses. I get that. I am a trader too and my own personal live account (on EDT at 4% risk) had to go through that as well.

A possible statistic to try and balance that bad news? As already mentioned, the longest recorded run of losses on all tests was 6. The longest recorded run of wins, was 8.

Mike
The Forex Club
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Old Nov 2, 2011, 11:12am   #31
Joined Feb 2011
Re: Euro Daily Trader

Welcome back Mike.

I still have high hopes for you product. That said, it is testing my nerves. Unfortunately I purchased and began using your EA in the middle of the month and therefore at the beginning of the losing streak. I did not get to take advantage of the wins at the beginning of the month. So my results so fare are down 11.17% (using 3% risk). This was 7 losing trades, 2 BE trades, and 2 winning trades. I had a losing trade on a Friday because I did not have the early close option enable as you did for you record.

When I looked at your live results the EA appears to perform better during the first 10-12 days of the month than it does after that. I don't know if there is a correlation over the longer term or a reason for that. But I am considering turning this off after the 15th if the 1st part of the month is profitable.
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Old Nov 2, 2011, 4:19pm   #32
Joined Sep 2011
Re: Euro Daily Trader

Quote:
Originally Posted by ggjr61 View Post
Welcome back Mike.

I still have high hopes for you product. That said, it is testing my nerves. Unfortunately I purchased and began using your EA in the middle of the month and therefore at the beginning of the losing streak. I did not get to take advantage of the wins at the beginning of the month. So my results so fare are down 11.17% (using 3% risk). This was 7 losing trades, 2 BE trades, and 2 winning trades. I had a losing trade on a Friday because I did not have the early close option enable as you did for you record.

When I looked at your live results the EA appears to perform better during the first 10-12 days of the month than it does after that. I don't know if there is a correlation over the longer term or a reason for that. But I am considering turning this off after the 15th if the 1st part of the month is profitable.
Well spotted again gg.

Yes we noticed that a couple of weeks ago and looked back. Nothing in the backtest to suggest any pattern but we will certainly be keeping an eye on it.

Very unlucky on that trade last night! The official live account touched the SL by just 0.4 of a pip before it turned and went way down in the direction the EA had predicted. We have all seen trades like that.

Funny how it never seems to happen in our favour.

So depending if you are a "half empty glass" or "half full glass" sort of person, it's up 20 for the week or down 19 for the month.

Mike
The Forex Club
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