my journal

Fuzzybid

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I want to make here my journal for my trades to record and see where i can do some improvements in my trading.

-My trading style mainly is support and ressistance entries (mechinical).
-Ranges based on a mechinical method fo risk determanation and entry purrposes
-Fundies for market sentiment.
-Performance based on macro data.
-Orderflow trading stophunts,Barriers ,Rumours, newstrading psychology (market).
 
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7-12-2011

Today there was not much going on regarding macro data.

Last friday whe had a huge drawback in the us nfp a revision from 97k forecast to 18k

So 18.000 new jobs still show us is still not devoloping regarding there jobnrs.
In the weekend whe has some nrs from china there cpi increased 0.9% from 5.5 to 6.4 shows a 0.9 gain there trade balance came out 22.3b much weaker then in june . Chinas growth is slowing analyst expect it to pick up in q3 again.

This puts some more pressure on there inflation if they will do another rate hike in the future whe need to wait.

Right now there is some tension regarding the eurozone debt problems again greece is in the picture again and they found a new victim itally who has there things not under control.

Negative sentiment is dragging Italy down and the euro.

right now i am in 1 trade mised the short in the eur or eur/chf i entered a long at the 1.4024 because of the reversion (much exceeded out of the average dailly range).
My risk is initial small on this trade. with the right management whe might fill up the gap i am not ahuge fan of it but for some reason pairs fill the gap.

also whe are coming to the monthly reversion point myself i see whe might go a little bit deeper maybe 1.39 is a area of intrest where i wanna setup a long with tight risk and not much risk on the trade according management. ( wanna see somekind of shakeout in that area) for confirmation

Trades i be intrested in for tommorow ashort in the gbp/chf, and the eur/chf if risk aversions stays tommorow keydata will be the cpi from gbp i use a pending i will risk 2% on this trade the order will be executed from see pic.
 

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I find these journals very interesting. Good luck, Fuzzy! Sounds like you have a grasp on what you're doing. I'm still in that "read, read, read" stage of things. So much information; quite daunting!
 
Today when i launvhed my tradingdesk whe started with risk averse session . My long from overnight was stopped out.

The first position i entered was a short in the gbp/chf because of the none movement to any stabilization in any pairs and the sell off contineud the gbp/chf was still in a range i entered 1 short before the cpi nrs. The outcome was bad for the uk what let me short another 1 cpi out come was -0.1% from -0,2%.


Then i saw there was a huge option barrier with stops between the 79.50 handle i should have traded the hunt but instead i traded the pullback after the clearing. (usd/jpy

Then the rumours came when euro came close to the 1.38 handle that ecb was buying Italian bonds and also the some Assian names where envolved that rumour + the huge contraction and support let me pull the trigger for a eu long. (eur/usd)


gbp/chf 2 in tottal - 1 closed @26 pips.
Risk 2% - 1 closed @ 77pips.
Tottal: 103.

Usd/jpy closed bit to late 1
Risk 1% 1 @21 pips.


Eur/usd still open WIll be managed

Risk2%


Tottal 124 pips with 1 still open the eur/usd.


For now looks like risk is off a bit my main trigger for the eu entry where the bonds.

Here a quick summary behind the eurozone current situation.


It has been another rollercoaster ride in the financial markets this morning with European investors taking currencies and equities sharply lower when London markets opened for trading. However as the European session progressed and European officials provided assurance to the market that they are working hard at preventing a default by any Eurozone nation, currencies and equities started to recover its earlier losses. The focus remains squarely on Europe and there are a few factors behind today's intraday rebound in the euro. Whether the bounce can be sustained remains to be seen but there is no question that everything hinges upon confidence because every pip move in the EUR/USD has been determined by rumors and news headlines.

Here are the 5 Factors Behind the Intraday Rebound in the EUR

1. EU Leaders Schedule a Special Summit on EZ Debt Crisis
EU leaders are working hard at stabilizing the financial markets, holding meetings after meetings and on Friday they will hold a special summit to discuss the debt crisis. As we have seen in the recent price action of the euro, all talk and no action is not enough to stabilize sentiment but at bare minimum, it proves that European officials are not asleep at the wheel and ignoring the situation.

2. Eurogroup Takes Steps to Provide Funding Relief for Greece
After the 2 day Eurogroup meeting on Greece, we finally have some concrete actions that will provide much needed debt relief for Greece. Eurogroup nations have agreed to enhance the flexibility and the scope of the EFSF, lengthening the maturities of the loans and lowering the interest rates. The group also discussed main parameters of a new multi-annual adjustment programme for Greece that could improve sustainability of Greek debt. Although private sector involvement and rating agency approval remains a challenge, these are all steps in the right direction.

3. Italy Accelerates Fiscal Package Vote
Italy knows that they could be the next domino to fall which is why Italian officials are looking for ways to boost investor confidence. One of those ways is to accelerate a fiscal package vote. Originally the vote was scheduled for the beginning of August, but it could now take place within the next 2 weeks. Unlike Greece, the opposition party does not have significant issues with the fiscal package. Only a few amendments are expected and the package should pass smoothly which would help to bolster confidence.

4. Comments from Luxembourg Finance Minister
The euro also received some help from the Luxembourg Finance Minister who said there will be no country defaulting in the Eurozone. With Greek and Italian credit default swap spreads remaining at very high levels, we question the accuracy but in a market where investors are hanging on every word from European officials, Frieden's confidence was enough to boost the euro.

5. ECB Buying Italian Bonds?
There was also a rumor that the ECB could be buying Italian bonds - this is completely unsubstantiated but still managed to contribute to the rebound in the currency.

Finally the U.S. dollar came under pressure after the U.S. trade numbers showed the trade deficit expanding from -$43.6B to -$50.2B to its largest level since October 2008. The expansion in the trade gap was caused largely by a surge in oil imports but exports also dropped 0.5 percent. with retail sales weakening in the second quarter, if the trade balance remains at current levels in June, we could be looking at much slower GDP growth in Q2.


Source (kathy lien).


I am holding my euro position reason is if thing will clear more up i have a nice swing trade entryprice is 1.3887 i keep eyes on the 1.3950.

I have no intension to open new trades anymore today will see later on the day what plan i have.
 

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Looks pretty well played to me; but I'm a total n00b. Thanks for the Eurozone news summary, though. Those screenshots are quite telling all in themselves, though. Dang.
 
Today when i launvhed my tradingdesk whe started with risk averse session . My long from overnight was stopped out.

The first position i entered was a short in the gbp/chf because of the none movement to any stabilization in any pairs and the sell off contineud the gbp/chf was still in a range i entered 1 short before the cpi nrs. The outcome was bad for the uk what let me short another 1 cpi out come was -0.1% from -0,2%.


Then i saw there was a huge option barrier with stops between the 79.50 handle i should have traded the hunt but instead i traded the pullback after the clearing. (usd/jpy

Then the rumours came when euro came close to the 1.38 handle that ecb was buying Italian bonds and also the some Assian names where envolved that rumour + the huge contraction and support let me pull the trigger for a eu long. (eur/usd)


gbp/chf 2 in tottal - 1 closed @26 pips.
Risk 2% - 1 closed @ 77pips.
Tottal: 103.

Usd/jpy closed bit to late 1
Risk 1% 1 @21 pips.


Eur/usd still open WIll be managed

Risk2%


Tottal 124 pips with 1 still open the eur/usd.


For now looks like risk is off a bit my main trigger for the eu entry where the bonds.

Here a quick summary behind the eurozone current situation.


It has been another rollercoaster ride in the financial markets this morning with European investors taking currencies and equities sharply lower when London markets opened for trading. However as the European session progressed and European officials provided assurance to the market that they are working hard at preventing a default by any Eurozone nation, currencies and equities started to recover its earlier losses. The focus remains squarely on Europe and there are a few factors behind today's intraday rebound in the euro. Whether the bounce can be sustained remains to be seen but there is no question that everything hinges upon confidence because every pip move in the EUR/USD has been determined by rumors and news headlines.

Here are the 5 Factors Behind the Intraday Rebound in the EUR

1. EU Leaders Schedule a Special Summit on EZ Debt Crisis
EU leaders are working hard at stabilizing the financial markets, holding meetings after meetings and on Friday they will hold a special summit to discuss the debt crisis. As we have seen in the recent price action of the euro, all talk and no action is not enough to stabilize sentiment but at bare minimum, it proves that European officials are not asleep at the wheel and ignoring the situation.

2. Eurogroup Takes Steps to Provide Funding Relief for Greece
After the 2 day Eurogroup meeting on Greece, we finally have some concrete actions that will provide much needed debt relief for Greece. Eurogroup nations have agreed to enhance the flexibility and the scope of the EFSF, lengthening the maturities of the loans and lowering the interest rates. The group also discussed main parameters of a new multi-annual adjustment programme for Greece that could improve sustainability of Greek debt. Although private sector involvement and rating agency approval remains a challenge, these are all steps in the right direction.

3. Italy Accelerates Fiscal Package Vote
Italy knows that they could be the next domino to fall which is why Italian officials are looking for ways to boost investor confidence. One of those ways is to accelerate a fiscal package vote. Originally the vote was scheduled for the beginning of August, but it could now take place within the next 2 weeks. Unlike Greece, the opposition party does not have significant issues with the fiscal package. Only a few amendments are expected and the package should pass smoothly which would help to bolster confidence.

4. Comments from Luxembourg Finance Minister
The euro also received some help from the Luxembourg Finance Minister who said there will be no country defaulting in the Eurozone. With Greek and Italian credit default swap spreads remaining at very high levels, we question the accuracy but in a market where investors are hanging on every word from European officials, Frieden's confidence was enough to boost the euro.

5. ECB Buying Italian Bonds?
There was also a rumor that the ECB could be buying Italian bonds - this is completely unsubstantiated but still managed to contribute to the rebound in the currency.

Finally the U.S. dollar came under pressure after the U.S. trade numbers showed the trade deficit expanding from -$43.6B to -$50.2B to its largest level since October 2008. The expansion in the trade gap was caused largely by a surge in oil imports but exports also dropped 0.5 percent. with retail sales weakening in the second quarter, if the trade balance remains at current levels in June, we could be looking at much slower GDP growth in Q2.


Source (kathy lien).


I am holding my euro position reason is if thing will clear more up i have a nice swing trade entryprice is 1.3887 i keep eyes on the 1.3950.

I have no intension to open new trades anymore today will see later on the day what plan i have.
Closed my long in the euro @ 1.4006 Reason dont wanna hold this trade overnight when i am gone. Could always reenter still some tension in the background 115 pips gain.

Tottal today 239 pips verry good day i am happy with:)
 

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The option related stops below the 79.25 even got more triggered on a thin market some market maker took a big order to do the job. I should have gone for the hunt in this pair for the barrier hunt and the stops. lesson for next time.
 

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Fisrt lets start with the sentiment.


Sentiments remains little bit uncertain but is slightly risk appetite after the succesfull bond auction from itly yesterday also china bought some bonds coording analyst.

I dont have much time to trade today took 1 trade after the stop hunt in the yen pairs i took along in ey and still holding that 1.
There where also rumours that the boj was watching the yen so scared probally some traders for some intervention risk

The important item today will be the speech from Bernaknke myself i cant watch it but hints from further easing will be important yesterday the fed already gave some hints about Q3 slight hits this gave some more pressure on the dollar.

In china growth was less then expected so there are signs of some cooling down keeping my eyes on it.






Yesterdays reaction from moodies on the downgrade from ireland to junk status gave eu a downtick of 40 pips but was fast been bought up again




Open trades ey will trail this 1 not looking to close yet dont have much time today to watch markets.

And little counter in the eu orderbook showed good cluster of sell limits around the 1.41 for a scalp in eu
 

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Oke just coming back my euro i closed manualy a bit to fast for only 11 pips i could easily targeting 30 or 40 when it when to the 50s area.

Ey i still have open and no intentetion to close yet i will do some reading now to get in touch what was going on today it looks like the market is dollar negative looking at the charts.
So i guess Bernanke did some comments on futher easing
 
I find these journals very interesting. Good luck, Fuzzy! Sounds like you have a grasp on what you're doing. I'm still in that "read, read, read" stage of things. So much information; quite daunting!


Thanks my friend if you have questions feel free to ask.
 
Oke going through the day some things payed my attention

Summary:


U.S. Treasuries indicate little chance the Federal Reserve will embark on a third round of bond purchases even as the unemployment rate rises and policy makers disagree on whether additional monetary stimulus will be needed. The BGOV Barometer indicates the five-year, five-year forward break-even rate, which the Fed uses to help determine interest-rate targets, reached 3.06 percent on July 7, almost the highest level since April. The gauge fell to 2.18 percent on Aug. 24, 2010, below the 2.78 percent average for the past five years. That was before the Fed in November 2010 initiated Treasury purchases totalling $600 billion through June. The bond purchases were called QE2 because they were the second round of a policy known as quantitative easing, aimed at carrying out the Fed’s dual mandate of maintaining stable prices and reducing unemployment.

The European Central Bank’s resolve in staying out of the bond market since March is being tested as soaring interest rates endanger the funding programs of Europe’s most indebted nations. Italian 10-year yields are recovering after surging above 6 percent earlier this week on concern that Europe’s third-largest economy may fail to implement a 40 billion-euro ($56 billion) austerity package. Borrowing costs for the nation, which plans to sell more than 3 billion euros of bonds in four auctions with maturities from 2016 to 2026, had already been pushed lower yesterday amid speculation about ECB purchases. The Frankfurt- based central bank declined to comment. "The ECB will intervene on whatever scale is necessary to allow Italy to conduct its auction on Thursday," Willem Buiter, chief economist at Citigroup Inc. and former Bank of England policy maker, told reporters in London yesterday. "If the ECB doesn’t come in, the Italian bond auction is likely to fail."

The Australian and New Zealand dollars rose after China reported economic growth and industrial output increased more than analysts predicted. The so-called Aussie also gained for the first time in four days versus the dollar as a rally in Asian shares and commodities supported demand for higher-yielding currencies. The kiwi ended a three-day slide against the yen after a report showed food prices climbed in June, giving the Reserve Bank of New Zealand more reason to raise interest rates this year.


Based on this i am looking for longs in the aud/usd nzd/usd on pullbacks.

Also silver have gave me the attention now whe technically broke out of the triangle i am looking to buy at 37$ retest of broken pivot can be this week otherwsise i could reassist next week.

looking to buy the aud/usd 1.0700 buy limit 1%
Looking to buy nzd/usd @0.83 buy limit 1%

Looking to buy eur/usd @ 1.41 0.5% because pressure remains there could do a stronger pullback to buy it again if sentiment stays

Moodies putted the us aa rating on downgrade reviwe possible
 
gdp new zeeland from 0.3% to 0.8% defintilly looking to buy the nzd willhave several buy limits set
 
This morning after late new york moodies downgrade review the us market slightly remains in risk appetite mode but with some tension regarding eurozone whe have a little bit later the bond auction coming out for itally key thing is if the ecb is buying i will closely monitor this because if not whe could see pressure and market moves in risk aversion mode. Next if the ecb buys bonds i wanna see if there also foreigner buying especially china.

later the day i will be looking at the us retail sales and unemployment claims to see if the nrs are bad that will put more pressure on the us to and further hints for a necasary q3.

Also yesterdays hints from Bernanke where loud and clear http://www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/testimony/bernanke20110713a.htm market will remain volatile.

Overnight i had some fills in the aud/usd exposure 1% and the nzd/usd both with costa averaging risk on the aud 15 kiwi tottal expossure 2.5 %.
Also 1 eur/usd risk 0.5 %
Also my eur/jpy is still open currently running at 210 pips also the boj is watching the markets so a intervention in the usd/jpy would give my ey more strength the position will be close immediatly if the bond auction fails also eu will be sold then and the eur/chf is on my list. if it pass i will look to buy oil eur/usd

Today on the watchlist risk aversion negative bond auction . looking for safe haven flows if possitive i will manage my positions until the us session after then i will look maybe to buy oil or the s&p depends on a good level or data.

Us session looking for the s&p.
 

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For some personal reasons i couldnt update my journal yesterday i still have all position open nothing changed only no newly addded 1s.

Today stophunt friday so probally another volatile day

Important point will be the european stress test

I will manage my open positions no intention to open new 1s maybe i f the day progress i can open another 1 if something is appealing
 
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