College Fund Challenge

This is a discussion on College Fund Challenge within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; Originally Posted by tkbieber Yes, this has been hashed out previously. Yes, I am not a signal service and care ...

View Poll Results: How close to my goal of $2,000,000 do you think I will get?
You think I will blow the account and my $100 will be lost. 79 58.52%
You think I will somewhat earn a profit $200-$1,500. 17 12.59%
You think I will get a pretty good return but not close to $2,000,000. 27 20.00%
You think I will get way more then $2,000,000. 12 8.89%
Voters: 135. You may not vote on this poll

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Old Dec 18, 2011, 8:25pm   #501
 
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Re: College Fund Challenge

Quote:
Originally Posted by tkbieber View Post
Yes, this has been hashed out previously. Yes, I am not a signal service and care not about handing out piggy-back rides.

Actually, the stop loss is not the issue as much as percent in DD. Example, I can have a 1,000 pip SL and be in DD of 5% when it goes -999 or I can have a SL of 100 pips and have a DD of 25% when it goes to -99. Take a look at the equity against the balance. In theory, yes, I could have a trade more than -225 pips but if the equity only shows -12% with currently a max DD of 14.84%, than that is really what counts. But no, if a trade hits -225, she's out!

It's all about leverage and leverage dictates DD more than SL.
Agree but I am not sure that the drawdown includes open trades when you have it as private. Tbh I dont see any reason why your setup wont work in the long run so long as you rein in the leverage to prevent a blow up. Tripling up trade size after the first loser was also a bit risky but paid off. I actually lime the idea that your flipping the r:r on its head and getting a high hit rate instead but lime I said until we can see how many open trades are in drawdown I'll reserve judgement. Again a screen shot once a week would be sufficient.
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Old Dec 18, 2011, 11:16pm   #502
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Re: College Fund Challenge

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Originally Posted by Vaco View Post
Agree but I am not sure that the drawdown includes open trades when you have it as private. Tbh I dont see any reason why your setup wont work in the long run so long as you rein in the leverage to prevent a blow up. Tripling up trade size after the first loser was also a bit risky but paid off. I actually lime the idea that your flipping the r:r on its head and getting a high hit rate instead but lime I said until we can see how many open trades are in drawdown I'll reserve judgement. Again a screen shot once a week would be sufficient.
You are correct, DD only shows up after the trade closes but the equity is in real time so you can figure out percent in DD by taking 100% - current "dd, (equity)" 87.91% = -12.09%. Also, you can see on the chart, the red line is balance gain in % and the yellow line is current equity. To me, the difference between the two is current dd.

Yes, the only concern I have with my system is the possibility of two losers in a row. If I am risking 15% and lose, the next trade would than need to be 85% or so to gain it back.

Now, if risking just 1% and lose, I would risk about 5 or 6% on the next one. That is more doable even if there are two losses in a row. Risking just 1% however would not get me to my $2M goal anytime soon. In fact it may just take a few decades instead of four-five years.

I may do a screen shot once a week or month. I'll see.
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Old Dec 19, 2011, 9:11pm   #503
 
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Re: College Fund Challenge

I'm intrigued to see how long this will run for before the law of probability bites you on the ass and brings you a string of losers,

Over a large enough sample size this will happen sooner or later, although I hope you get enough capital growth before it happens to scale back your risk.

A couple more questions, I noticed you run multiple positions at the same time on the same currency, does the ea have a max no of positions it can open or is there the risk it will open positions that will cause a margin call and have your positions automatically closed?
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Old Dec 20, 2011, 12:03am   #504
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Re: College Fund Challenge

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I'm intrigued to see how long this will run for before the law of probability bites you on the ass and brings you a string of losers,

Over a large enough sample size this will happen sooner or later, although I hope you get enough capital growth before it happens to scale back your risk.

A couple more questions, I noticed you run multiple positions at the same time on the same currency, does the ea have a max no of positions it can open or is there the risk it will open positions that will cause a margin call and have your positions automatically closed?
Yes, I don't know what world events would cause the GBP to swing wildly enough to produce two or three losses in a row but I'll never say never.

Also, because I originally started with $500 than up to where it is now, 3 or 4 losses wouldn't kill the account but it would take a bit if time to gain it back.

Yes, I run two systems on the GBP, the 15 min chart and the 1 hr chart. Each can open one buy and one sell so four max trades can be opened within 24 hrs. It doesn't usually open more than two but if like now, there is enough DD to where the market is trending in the opposite direction, than it will open an opposite trade 24 hrs later.

I'll never get a margin call because I am only risking 7-15% per trade. So, two max would be 30% risk and the other two would work as a hedge so would never margin out.

I am actually working for an investment firm which the account is close to $300,000 and I risk 1% per trade using the very same system so that is very conservative yet consistent.
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Old Dec 20, 2011, 12:40am   #505
 
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Re: College Fund Challenge

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Originally Posted by tkbieber View Post
I am actually working for an investment firm which the account is close to $300,000 and I risk 1% per trade using the very same system so that is very conservative yet consistent.
Please elaborate...Did they start with $500,000?
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Old Dec 20, 2011, 1:55am   #506
 
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Re: College Fund Challenge

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Originally Posted by Masquerade View Post
Please elaborate...Did they start with $500,000?

$50 is close for a given value of "close".
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Old Dec 20, 2011, 2:56am   #507
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Re: College Fund Challenge

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Originally Posted by Masquerade View Post
Please elaborate...Did they start with $500,000?
You funny man.
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Old Dec 20, 2011, 11:54am   #508
Joined Jul 2010
Re: College Fund Challenge

i would be very interested in learning your method...
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Old Dec 20, 2011, 2:29pm   #509
Joined Sep 2010
Re: College Fund Challenge

tkbieber started this thread Ok, the drama continues. I did get 40 pips on the buy trade and the sell trades are still open and currently -187. Notice the DD with the yellow line on the chart. However, it's far from margin call and will get kicked out at -225 should the GBP go up and lose about -15% of total balance. My 1H chart is risking 10% and my 15M chart is 5%. I am risking more on the 1H chart because it is less "risky" and has more wins than the 15M chart. Usually even if there is a loss, only the 15M chart has the loss and the 1H at least breaks even. This time, the market just never went down enough for the 1H chart. That's how it goes sometimes.


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Old Dec 20, 2011, 3:36pm   #510
Joined Sep 2010
Re: College Fund Challenge

tkbieber started this thread As I suspected, the cable pushed high enough to kick out my sell for a -14.08% loss. Not close to margin btw.

Now I will attempt to regain the loss within the next 4 trades. Good luck to me.
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