The Artist FX Trading System

The Artist

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Hi,
I will start posting up my trades as well from now on. I think I can only benefit from it and some people might also benefit from the questions/concerns that may arise.
I have an entirely systematic approach based on technicals. Which means that my entry and exit points are predetermined according to a specific strategy and the strategy applies equally to the 3 instruments I focus on: EUR/USD, EUR/GBP, AUD/USD.
Unfortunately (or fortunately if I keep on losing $), I will not share the details of the various signals I use for now, however I can summarise the system to be volatility-breakout based. That is, I try to open a position after price has somewhat contracted in order to pick up an interesting break up or down. For those familiar with Bloomberg, some of my inspiration came from the "binary strings" study which was developed by Bruno Dupire, the father of the local volatility modelling of volatility surface. The rest came from observation of the FX markets which I have been trading on and off for 6/7 years.
I have a very rigid 40, 60, and 70 pips stop rule for EUR/GBP, AUD, and EUR respectively with a trailing stop loss or fixed target for exit if hit (+100 on EUR/GBP, +200 for AUD and EUR). I may modify this after a while if ATR becomes significantly different from recent market conditions.
For entry, I use 30minutes charts which is why all my trades will open on an half-hourly time. On average, I expect to make about 150 pips per month and will have 6 or 7 trades.
So that's it I will post the charts and entry/exit points as early as I can, sometimes before I get in or out if possible. I use IG Index to spreadbet and the charts package which comes with it. Good luck to me.
:)
 
Chart test
 

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Ok so for instance there's been a bit of a loss of momentum on EUR/GBP with a moderate surge beyond 87. If we close below 8660 on the 30mins I will short the pair.
:)
 

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Ok so no signals since I have started this thread.. I had traded 4 times in March before that so it is not too bad. AUD cruised through so I could not get anything out of it while EUR is only now becoming quite a good candidate following retracement from 14200s.

I will have a buy signal around 14140 so long as we do not close below 14035.
And I will have a sell signal on AUD around 10260 so long as we do not close above the 10350 area. By the way AUD trades will now be exited if +100 is hit following a new round of optimization on in and out of sample data with backtesting and forward testing. I may also modify stop levels in the next few weeks as more and more adverse excursion data comes in.
 
Almost there on EUR.. this would likely cancel the AUD short as they are slightly correlated on the upside.
 

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So March recap (I use GMT and my broker's prints)

30Mar - 31Mar EUR/USD +1.4141 -1.4158 => +17

That's it for March. The EUR trade is still rolling on but my trailing stop is slightly below entry now so looking at price action since the start of the Asian session it's more likely that this trade will break even or thereabouts than not.
:)
 
Short EUR/GBP @ 8799

This was closed @ 8784 earlier this afternoon once trailing stop loss was hit as pair pulled back on poor UK IP => +15
+100 target missed by 14 ticks but not too bothered as being short EUR this week was always going to be an uphill battle!
:)

Looking forward I will not likely have any signals on EURGBP or EUR due to expected high vol and directional momemtum post BoE/ECB circus over the next few days.. If AUD retraces from here, consolidates in the low 10400s in the evening, and gets hit by poor employment data there will be a short signal around 10350.
 
This was closed @ 8784 earlier this afternoon once trailing stop loss was hit as pair pulled back on poor UK IP => +15
+100 target missed by 14 ticks but not too bothered as being short EUR this week was always going to be an uphill battle!
:)

Looking forward I will not likely have any signals on EURGBP or EUR due to expected high vol and directional momemtum post BoE/ECB circus over the next few days.. If AUD retraces from here, consolidates in the low 10400s in the evening, and gets hit by poor employment data there will be a short signal around 10350.

So no AUD, but today long signal on EURGBP above 8780. We'll see in a few minutes/hrs.
:)
 

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Long EUR/GBP @ 8784

Did not get filled on my TP at the first attempt so I closed manually 6 ticks below @ 8878 for +94.
Could not take any chance on dodgy news-related price action these days. Will make up for those missed 6 ticks next winning trade.

Looking at the 4h charts, I'd say no signals in sight for the next couple days at least so hopefully the weather continues to be nice.

:)
 
Actually, back in action potentially on AUD/USD with long if 30mn close above 10500.
:)
 

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I was cheering EUR all morning, yet the system has identified the latest throwback as a sign of weakness.. So short EUR/USd @ 14409.. not convinced.
AUD/USD has been useless, no momentum to crack 85s, so still in but trailing stop is around the 10470 mark now.
:)
 

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Long AUD/USD @ 10504

No 10600 and although still widely profitable when I woke up mayhem since means closed at a loss @ 10483 for -21.
Means +36 so far this month. USDX rally today means that short EUR should increase that tally at least, unless enormous slippage.

:)
 
I was cheering EUR all morning, yet the system has identified the latest throwback as a sign of weakness.. So short EUR/USd @ 14409.. not convinced.
AUD/USD has been useless, no momentum to crack 85s, so still in but trailing stop is around the 10470 mark now.
:)

Closed @ 14209 for +200
Month to date +236. Law of averages says I should have 1 or 2 losing trades before the end of the month then. Hope not to be honest.

:)
 
Will be short EUR/GBP if we close past the 8800s below there.
:)
 

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Will be short EUR/GBP if we close past the 8800s below there.
:)

That never happened and was invalidated by break up, however the opposite is now in place, with potential short signal below the 8860 area.
:)
 

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