Hotch's 25 pips a day

Hotch

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Always wanted to do one of these. Varengold competition seemed like some fun, so here we are. Will post results here, and probably put it on myfxbook.

In my defence:

1- I don't normally trade the afternoon, but had to today for reasons I will give later.
2- I am currently getting 1kb/s off mt4 (my internet is boned for the next couple of days), so I had some... interesting slippage.
3- I was in a rush.

Oh well, done now.

1 done, 63 to go.
 

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Not a pretty day. I'm not even going to bother with excuses :p.

3% of the way there!
 

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Believe it or not, I think I may be improving, by very small amounts. I had a bit more patience this morning, of course, was still over trading far too much. Again, If I had stuck it out I would of been fine off the first trades.

However all that has faded into insignificance with the ridiculousness that was NFP. Now I quite like NFP normally, and I've got a very good record with it (never been down for starters).

Today, I missed it. To make matters worse, I had some stops I was getting rid of still on. I was busy with a few things, came back and all **** was breaking lose. The day had already been pretty crap, and now I was down over 10%, it was not good.

The way varengold is doing things, I needed to sort it out by 2 (about 15 minutes away). So might as well gamble because I'm not recovering otherwise. Bang on some epic longs. Try to figure out where I want to exit, and get slipped way into profit. Far too much.

Now I am in the position that if I leave my P&L as is, I'm still out of the contest, so I desperately try to lose money.

It's freakin impossible! Made a load more money I didn't want. Then lost more than I needed. Caught a couple more points to get me roughly level. With 3 minutes to go I was figuring out what best to do, and managed to pay the spread on the correct lot size to get me down to my target level for 2pm.

Sure it's a demo contest et all, but it would never of happened with real money, I was cracking up most of the time.

In other news, my longs on my real account are doing just fine :).
 

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Hi Hotch,

I am also in the varengold competition, best of luck to you... will keep an eye on your journal.. fair play to you for putting detailed statements up......good luck
 

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To you too, think I've screwed up, thought it updated at GMT, not GMT +1. Along with me thinking they've been 3 days when there's only been 2, oh well.
 
In 47th place (n)

Even knowing that they're calculating the standard deviation wrong, and how they're doing it, I can't get their numbers. Oh well.
 
Done of the day for now. Due to them not doing calender days etc my Std dev is a bit screwed according to them, so I might do a bit more later, waiting for their explanation to try and find my mean.
 

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Well, finished up for tomorrow as well. Varengold support got rather quiet when I introduced the maths of why their standard dev calc is wrong. Saying that, I've probably made some embarrassing mistake.
 

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If you treat the first day before comp started as 0%, how far off is their standard deviation to yours?
 
If you treat the first day before comp started as 0%, how far off is their standard deviation to yours?

They're doing standard deviation on daily returns. However a "day" is defined by them and isn't every 24 hours (stops a fair few grid traders).

They took days at 2pm on Thursday, 7am on Friday, and 2pm on Monday (GMT+1), in which case you get returns of 2.01%,0% and 2.01%. Which I'm pretty sure is a std dev of 0.9475

In the FAQ they've used the estimation formula instead of normal standard deviation, but that's not what they're using now seemingly either. Not much of a response from support.

I mean, they're all probably going to be off so it might not effect the comp much, but it'd be nice to know what's up with it.
 
But the day before the comp started, they had up a 0% for the day before. They may have used this in the calculation, since they need to use something, otherwise if you got 1% a day or anything constant, you would have 0 st dev, and hence infinite returns.
 
The 1% a day and 0 std dev is the reason why they're picking the hours at random I believe. I asked them about that and they claim it's just the 3 figures so far. In any case, I have tried using 0% for a first day and any other variant I can think of, and don't get their figures.
 
Does it not bother anyone that varengold are obviously dodgy as ****? They even wrote their own Wikipedia article :LOL:
 
Done for tommorrow, went a bit more than 1% to try and get the average level.

Honestly though Arabian, I was unaware of varengold being dodgy (wouldn't surprise me), elitejets put me onto them, but it appears she may be exaggerating on a few things of late.
 

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