Spreadbetting Journal Trend Strategy

This is a discussion on Spreadbetting Journal Trend Strategy within the Trading Journals forums, part of the Reception category; I was stopped out of my long position from last night in the overnight session. I moved too soon and ...

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Old Nov 12, 2010, 2:10pm   #51
 
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SP 500 Exit

isatrader started this thread I was stopped out of my long position from last night in the overnight session. I moved too soon and should have waited longer for the pullback after the breakout above the trend line. So am now back to my original target which was the 100 Bar EMA around the 1198 level. However, this was breached much further than the previous 5 or 6 times, so am not willing to get back in yet as it could be breaking down. I think today could be a key day, so will be watching the US session closely to see if I want to get in again before the weekend.

Closing trade
Entry Price: 1210.4
Exit Price: 1197.4
Qty: 0.5 per point
Points: -13
P/L: -6.50
Trade Percentage: -1.07%

Daily Channel Captured: -18%
Trade Grade: E

Account P/L: -0.16%
Attached Thumbnails
sp500_daily_12-11-10_1240.png   sp500_4hr_12-11-10_1240.png   sp500_2hr_12-11-10_1240.png  

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Old Nov 12, 2010, 8:43pm   #52
 
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Sp 500

isatrader started this thread Ive been watching this with interest today. Its currently trying to form a second bottom on the rising trend line. There is a slight indication that it might hold on the 30 min chart with the divergence in the RSI to the price. But the 4 hour is still stuck in its down trend.

Overall, the price trend lines are converging and cross on the 16th on the 4hr chart. So Im watching for a break still, hopefully to the upside on Monday, but if it breaks down Ive got my hedge in the VIX which would hopefully spike on such a move.
Attached Thumbnails
sp500_4hr_12-11-10_1930.png   sp500_30min_12-11-10_1927.png  
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Old Nov 13, 2010, 4:47pm   #53
 
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Weekend Update

isatrader started this thread Below is my updated trades spreadsheet and account spreadsheet.

I had a fairly quiet week and only placed two new trades, as I was a bit more unsure about market direction this week. I kept the position sizes small, only risking 0.12% and 0.16% on the trades. Both were stopped out fairly quickly, one the same day and one in the overnight trading session.

So two losers this week and zero winners, yet I managed to make a small profit as my long term position in the VIX did its hedging job and recovered a bit, which covered the loses and made a bit extra.

So the week ahead is looking more uncertain to me. Attached below is my weekly and daily chart of the S&P 500. The weekly chart is interesting I think, as the price action has bounced off of the long term 61.8% Fibonacci line for the second time this year. But the pullback was only roughly just over half of last weeks weekly bar length. Some of the weekly indicators are in a good buy position now, whereas others are mixed. Personally Im bullish still, but the recent breakout above the 2 year downtrend line hasnt been retested yet, so I think theres a good chance it might after this weeks price moves. Daily indicators are looking more negative, but price is still above the 22 day EMA, so Im still bullish for now. One warning sign though is that Elder Impulse went red for the first time since mid August. This is just a warning signal, which could go off on Monday, but I think it signals the end of the easy melt up weve had and a more volatile period starting.
So short term I think well have volatility and medium term I think the uptrend will continue higher. But, what do I know. This could just as easily be a double top and the market could sell off. Either way Ill be looking for trades and more importantly to learn to be a better trader.

Have a good week
Attached Thumbnails
trades_spreadsheet_12-11-10.png   account_spreadsheet_12-11-10.png   sp500_weekly_12-11-10.png  

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Old Nov 15, 2010, 2:39pm   #54
 
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S&p 500

isatrader started this thread The downtrend line on the 4hr chart RSI that was in place all last week has been broken out from, but price hasnt broken out above its trend line yet. Theres been a moving average cross to the downside, so Id expect the price to get up to the value zone and then pullback into the range again. Unless theres strong good news. I do think the market is going higher in the next few days to retest last weeks high, but I think its an ABC move. Last week being the A part. So Im looking for an entry point on the rising trend line still.
Attached Thumbnails
sp500_4hr_15-11-10_1325.png  
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Old Nov 15, 2010, 5:11pm   #55
 
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S&P 500 Short Entry

isatrader started this thread Price was at the top of the range, so thought Id do a quick short on the SP 500 Dec Spread

Trade
Entry Price: 1200.1
Qty: 0.5
Spread: 0.6

Stop: 1211.7
Limit: 1155

Account Risk: 0.14%
Potential Account Profit: 0.55%
Risk Ratio: 3.89
Attached Thumbnails
sp500_10min_15-11-10_1557.png   sp500_4hr_15-11-10_1558.png  
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Old Nov 15, 2010, 10:38pm   #56
 
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Re: S&P 500 Short Entry

isatrader started this thread
Quote:
Originally Posted by isatrader View Post
Price was at the top of the range, so thought Id do a quick short on the SP 500 Dec Spread

Trade
Entry Price: 1200.1
Qty: 0.5
Spread: 0.6

Stop: 1211.7
Limit: 1155

Account Risk: 0.14%
Potential Account Profit: 0.55%
Risk Ratio: 3.89
Price dropped down to near the rising 4 hour trend line at the close, so I decided to close the short position for a very small gain as theres risk it will bounce overnight.

Closing trade
Entry Price: 1200.1
Exit Price: 1196.7
Qty: 0.5 per point
Points: 3.4
P/L: 1.70
Trade Percentage: 0.28%

Daily Channel Captured: 5%
Trade Grade: C-

Account P/L: 0.04%

It was a good intraday trade, but I want put on longer trades as I dont have time to watch them during the day normally. Charts are below.
Attached Thumbnails
sp500_4hr_15-11-10_2114.png   sp500_30min_15-11-10_2114.png  
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Old Nov 16, 2010, 2:50am   #57
 
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S&P 500 Long Entry

isatrader started this thread S&P 500 has broken below the 4 hour up trend line. However, Ive decided to place a long position as I can see a MACD divergence on the 2 hour chart and RSI has broken above the trend line and is retesting support. Finally price has dipped just below support and rebounded on the 30 min chart, so a possible double bottom here maybe. My risk is tiny on this as so close to the low, so if it breaks down I will only lose what I made today on my intraday trade, but lets see what I get.

Trade
Entry Price: 1192.5
Qty: 0.5
Spread: 0.6

Stop: 1189.4
Limit: 1220.9

Account Risk: 0.04%
Potential Account Profit: 0.35%
Risk Ratio: 9.16
Attached Thumbnails
sp500_30min_16-11-10_0130.png   sp500_2hr_16-11-10_0130.png   sp500_4hr_16-11-10_0130.png  

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Old Nov 16, 2010, 3:34am   #58
 
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S&P 500 Long Exit

isatrader started this thread The support level didnt hold and I have been stopped out. Was worth a go though as it was either a swing bottom or it was going to breakdown.

Closing trade
Entry Price: 1192.5
Exit Price: 1189.1
Qty: 0.5 per point
Points: -3.4
P/L: -1.70
Trade Percentage: -0.29%

Daily Channel Captured: -5%
Trade Grade: D

Account P/L: -0.04%
Attached Thumbnails
sp500_5min_16-11-10_0225.png   sp500_30min_16-11-10_0225.png  
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Old Nov 16, 2010, 9:43pm   #59
 
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VIX Contract Rollover

isatrader started this thread My position in the Volatility Index Nov 10 Spread has rolled over into to the Dec 10 Spread contract.

Nov 10 Spread Closing trade
Entry Price: 21.1
Exit Price: 22.45
Qty: 10 per point
Points: 1.35
P/L: 13.50
Trade Percentage: 6.40%

Daily Channel Captured: 17%
Trade Grade: C

Account P/L: 0.34%

Dec 10 Spread Entry trade
Entry Price: 23.6
Qty: 10 per point
Spread: 0.45

Stop: No stop Long term hedge max risk 236
Limit: 45

Account Risk: 5.80%
Potential Account Profit: 5.26%
Risk Ratio: 0.91
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Old Nov 17, 2010, 4:22pm   #60
 
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S&P 500 Long Entry

isatrader started this thread The selling in the S&P 500 looks to have stalled to me, so Im trying for a swing trade here. I may possibly sell at the downtrend line if it gets there and looks weak. Have a big stop on this one at 0.5%, as Im willing to let it swing down as far as the 100 Day EMA, as I still think this is corrective period and am hedged with the VIX so should make out about even if it does.

Trade
SP 500 Dec 10 Spread
Entry Price: 1177.7
Qty: 0.5
Spread: 0.6

Stop: 1137.4
Limit: 1223.6

Account Risk: 0.5%
Potential Account Profit: 0.56%
Risk Ratio: 1.14
Attached Thumbnails
sp500_30min_17-11-10_entry.png   sp500_4hr_17-11-10_entry.png  
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