Alpha Markets - Simple Forex Trading

alpha_markets

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Hello and welcome to this thread. My name is Hemal Pandya and I’m a full time Independent FX trader specialising in short term trades on GBPUSD, EURUSD, AUDUSD, GBPJPY, EURJPY and GBPJPY crosses. Some of you will know me from previous posts/threads but I have created a new account in my company name.

With the support of my administrative team, I will be posting my strategy and market outlook for the London open session. As I try to make my pips in the morning, the vast majority of my posts will be just before and after the London session. I will try my best to answer any questions one may have as quickly as possible. I hope that the content give you a good insight into my trading and how/why I look for trades as well as how I manage my book.

Over the coming days, I will be posting some of my rules on entry criteria’s and how I determine my stop levels.
Let’s get straight in to the action....
Contrary to many traders, I don’t think it’s all about the pips. Personally I don’t pay my bills in pips but rather GBP. So I do not measure my performance in pips but % gains. Every single trade of mine is a fixed % (I personally use 2% risk per trade). This, in my opinion is a very straightforward, objective and simple method to measure my performance and most importantly compound my account. So the first lesson from me is money management.

Money management is the single most important factor in any business including trading. Ok, we’ve all heard that many times but I hear you ask “how do you manage your money”. Simple.

Account balance divided by 50 divided by stop loss size gives me my trade size. This ensures that every trade is exactly the same percentage risk. For example if I take a trade with a 20 pip stop loss and make 40 pips that equates to a profit of 4%. On the other hand, if I get stopped, my loss is 2%. Simple enough hey??
Anyway, that’s all for now. Next we’ll cover the indicators.

Feel free to get involved, ask questions help others in their trading journey and hopefully we’ll all make our 5% per week.

Regards,
Hemal
 
This morning cable is boxed in between our averages. I am looking for a continuation cross north above 1.5880 for a test of 1.5940.

EU & AU are limited with no crosses.

GBPJPY was a cross short last night and the pair is at immediate support at 131.40.

EJ presented a continuation cross and has pulled back towards DP at 115.15. I am looking for a momentum push through 115.40 for a long position with a view to test 115.70

AJ broke the trendline resistance at 81.25 but is some way away from DP for me to look for a long entry.

My focus this session is on GBPUSD & EURJPY.

Have a good morning.

Regards,

Hemal
 
Hi guys,

Just like to take a moment to follow up from my post earlier.

I took both cable and EJ. Unfortunately, the markets weren't kind to me this morning as I got stopped on cable by 0.5 of a pip. That would be up around 4% at the time of writing. EJ was another one I got involved with which I decided to close at breakeven.

Glad to see some of the guys in the room take advantage of cable.

Anyway, an unlucky start for me this morning as I'm 2% down. Not a problem at all.

Hope this helps some of you. :idea:

Feel free to shout if you have any questions.

Regards,

Hemal
 
I hope you're well and had a good weekend.

As I'm sure you're aware, the USD is trading at a significant support level form 2008.

Cable is trading just below the 1.6 resistance level and AUDUSD is at the highest point I can see on my charts with a double top from .9850 resistance.

With the USD at these levels, we may see a top on cable, AUDUSD and possibly EURUSD. To enter a short trade, I need to see a major cross short and a pullback.

In the meantime, we have continuation crosses long cable and EURUSD. I will be monitoring price action to see if I can obtain a long entry but please be advised that this would require trading in to a longer term resistance level.

Today is a Bank Holiday in Canada, Japan and the U.S. Euro French Production at 7:45 may see some action on the EUR pairs.

I'm looking to keep things tight today as I expect limited momentum and the mentioned state of the greenback

Have a good morning. :cool:
 
London Open Summary

Hi, Just like to provide a quick update to follow up on my morning post.

As you know, GBPUSD and AUDUSD are trading at significant resistance levels. For a medium term view, I am looking for my next major cross to the downside before I start attempting short positions.

In the meantime, I was looking for a short term play long on EURUSD & GBPUSD for a quick 40/50 pips. However, having accessed the charts during the first part of trading, I am not convinced that we will see a solid move towards 1.6000 and 1.4000 first thing this morning. As a result, no long trades have been taken and I have backed away from those for now.

Moving forward, I am looking at a possible play on EURJPY for a short position with a view to re-test 113.70. I'm still waiting for confirmation by the way of price moving through 114.30. Defiantly something to keep an eye on today.

As mentioned, little news today with some major players out of the game so may have to wait to get involved.

Enjoy your day.

Regards,

Hemal
 
Morning,

We have a major cross south on EURUSD. I am looking for a way to get short either on the next test of the 15 min 20 or after a break of 1.3840 support.

Euro figures at 7am followed by GBP data at 9:30 amd FOMC minutes later this evening.

Should be an active session where I expect to see some strength in the grenback.

Also keeping an eye on GBPUSD & GBPCHF for a short entry.

Regards,

Hemal
 
Morning all,

I'm looking for the following...

Cable - Continuation cross short or a major cross long.
EURUSD - Looking for a pullback towards the 1.3900/20 level for a long position.
1.3330 short order on EC. 20 pip stop.
EURJPY - Looking for price to hold above the 4hr 20 for a long position
EURCHF- Looking for a continuation cross south

Have a good morning.
 
Good morning ,

I hope you're well.

We have major 60 minute crosses on Cable and EURUSD however we are some distance away from DP this morning. Shame about our entry on EURUSD at 1.3910 not getting hit.

Over to the Yens, we have a 15 minute cross looming on GBPJPY through DP. I intend to take a short position with a stop just above the 4hr 20.

EURJPY is still a cross long but as we discussed yesterday, the pair has faied to make a higher high and in fact it would appear that we have a DT formation. Looks a little tricky to me this morning. Would like to see a break higher, pullback and long or a major cross south.

AUDJPY has failed to make any ground above 81.20 and the pair is now testing the 4hr 20. I'd like to see a 15 minute continuation cross north or a major cross south.

We have no news first thing this morning and given that Asia has been busy, I may have to wait a few hours to get involved.

Euro news and 9am and 11am followed by CAD & U.S. data this afternmoon at 1:30.

Look forward to seeing you in the room.



Regards,

Hemal
 
You have the option to take 1% at this support level. Should it break 80.80, I expect to see further downside. I have moved my stop to 81.20 which holds 1% risk.

This morning we have a major cross on GBPCHF. I am looking for a oullback towards the 4hr 20 for a long entry.

Should we see a continuation cross on EURUSD, I will be looking for a long position.

GBPJPY & EURJPY- These look top heavy to me but I need to see evidence of a move south my the way of a major cross.

Lets have a good morning.

Regards,

Hemal

P.S Little news this morning so may be a slow session.
 
I hope you're well and had a good weekend.

Looks like our friends in Asia have been busy buying the Yen overnight with all our JPY pairs through support.

This morning we are limited on our JPY pairs. We have a major cross south against the main trend on EURUSD & AUDUSD with a possible cross on cable in the pipeline. Both are on the watchlist for a possible short this morning.


Regards,

Hemal
 
Cable, EURUSD & AUDUSD remain below the 4hr 20.

We have no cross on cable and support in the region of 1.5860

On EURUSD, we have a 15 minute continuation cross and price has just popped through DP. I will be monitoring this for a short position with a view to test 1.3830.

AUDUSD is also a 15 minute cross with the major cross just above. I will be monitoring this for a short too.

EJ is trading above DP and boxed in between DP and the 4hr 20. Unless we get a 123 move through DP, nothing there at the moment.

GJ is trading at the 60 minute 20 and I'd like to see a 15 minute cross to get involved with a short. That requires a test of the 4hr 20 first.

Should we see a move through DP, I will be looking for a short position with a BSX/continuation cross just above.


Will be in touch with any developments.
 
I have been waiting for continuation crosses on the USD pairs and it looked like may have got it a little earlier hence the "heads up" email.

However, since then AUDUSDis back above the above the 60 minute 20 and testing the 4hr 20.

As a result, I have stepped back and will be waiting for a continuation cross or a major cross long.

Looks like it may be limited today but wil of course update you should anything change.
 
We are about to get a 15 minute cross on cable. Looking for a 5 minute entry for a short at 1.5795 with a stop at 1.5830. At the moment, 5 min charts are oversold.

Lets also keep an eye on gold for a 15 minute cross through DP for a short.
 
Sadlly I didn't manage to get an entry on cable this morning as we saw EURUSD breaking through the 60 minute 20 and although we do not look at correlation as the definative indicator, it was certainly conflicting with one another.

I will keep you posted as things develop.
 
We have 15 minute crosses on EU & EJ. I am loooking for a small pullback towards the 60 minute 20 for a long position.

Also keeping a close eye on Oil for a short position
 
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I hope you're well and had a good day.

Further to my previous email, EURJPY has been invalidated as it's broken back above the 4hr 20 and EURUSD would appear to be a short whilst trading just ahead of a cluster of support in the region of 1.3870. One to keep an eye on for Sunday night / Monday morning.

It's certainly been another busy week for me. Personally I am 0.5% up so basically a breakeven week. Looking back at the charts, I think I was unlucky with cable and missed out on EURGBP, Gold and EURUSD which were all 5%+ trades at the very least.

I'm pleased that we identified the trades and the levels. Moving forward to next week I think it's of paramount importance that we're all very focussed in the London session.

I'm off for some family celebrations this weekend and look forward to speaking to you all bright and early on Monday morning.

I'd like to thank you all for your support over the past week and once again would like to welcome our new members to the team.
 
AUDJPY has been trading in a small range between 80.00 and 80.30 with little momentum to drive the pair higher. At the time of writing, there's 1% on the table with my stop at breakeven. Personally, I am inclined to hold the position.

Moving over to EURUSD & AUDUSD, where the pairs have failed to make a significant advance north. Given the distance from DP and the averages, I would expect to see a pullback at some point if not a consilidation at these levels. I will be maintaining my stance of "long on pullbacks" with 1.3950 and 9850 as significant support and my desired entry levels. We are some way away at the moment and should we see them pullback, I would expect AJ to stop at breakeven.

No change on the other Yen pairs.

With reference to Oil, I am still looking for a pullback towards 81.80 for a long entry.

Will keep you posted on any developments.
 
I am monitoring AUDUSD for a possible long should we see momentum above the 60 minute 20.

I am also monitoring EURJPY for a short with momentum through the 15 minute 20.

Will keep you posted.
 
We have UK HPI at 7am this morning.

On EURUSD, AUDUSD & AUDJPY I am looking for the next 15 continuation cross for a short.

I am looking at a possible long cable first thing with a stop below 1.5785.
 
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