Breakout +/- 20 of the US close

This is a discussion on Breakout +/- 20 of the US close within the Trading Delta Cycles forums, part of the Specialists' Corner category; US close +/-20 I would like to draw attention to the simple breakout or a failure of the breakout which ...

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Old Dec 17, 2009, 1:18am   #1
2be
 
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Breakout +/- 20 of the US close

US close +/-20

I would like to draw attention to the simple breakout or a failure of the breakout which forms a part of my overall trading. It might also become a sole system if one wants to trade it alone, I do not trade it alone, but I trade that breakout / breakout failure.
Needless to say that the breakout is more conservative, but sometimes a well confirmed by other filters failure of breakout affords an earlier entry, but please be vigilant on trading that failure. On that account the failure is not to be traded by the newbies.

The close of the Us session at 9.30pm GMT is the middle of the zone, from which two horizontal lines are drown; one is +20 pips and the other is -20 pips.
The posted indicator can be changed so that one can make this 20 pips rule smaller or greater. Break above the +20 (blue line) is buy, and the break below -20 (red line) is sell.
One can wait for a candle to close below/above, or one can establish trade when the PA crosses one of these lines, it is up to the trader.

TF to trade from M5 to H4.

Best traded during the more active market hours. (6am to 7pm GMT) I trade much less than that, and once in the trade there are various possibilities to manage the trade, making the rest of the day free to do other things.

If desired it can be traded without any other indicator, thus satisfying some trader’s pure PA approach.

I use other indicators, and some of them are posted.

US close 20 set up; the indicator is called peterdailypivots (written by my friend)
Time 6
Pips 20 or 200 if price displayed with 5 digits
Daysback 5 ( can be set less)
Ray false

BreakOut-EAGLE_indicator SI01

There are two boxes, one for the beginning of the European and the other for the US session.
The third box can be set up for the beginning of the Asian session. (not included in the tpl).

First box:
Set on Tpl to mark Frankfurt open at 7.00am GMT with the box extended one hour extra for the London opening at 8.00am GMT.
Green box 1.00am to the close of the 6.00am bar (tha bar closes at 7.00am GMT), this time is indicated by a vertical broken line contain within the box. Green box then continues for another hour till 8.00 am the London opening.

The green box upper and lower borders indicate the High & Low of the time from the opening of the box to the vertical broken line. That provides for entry using H&L.

There are two red horizontal broken lines contained within the box, they indicate open and close extremes for the time from the opening of the box to the broken vertical line. That provides for entry using O&C.


The grey coloured zones on the upper and lower side of the box indicate the buffer zone set at 7 pips (70 for the 5 digit display) from the H & L of the time from the opening of the box to the vertical broken line. That provides for entry using H&L +/- 7 pips. It can be changed to your own setting.

Second Box:
Set to indicate the beginning of the US session starting at 2.30GMT, blue colour.

Blue box 10.30am GMT to the close of the 14.30pm GMT.

The blue box upper and lower borders indicate the High & Low of the time from the opening of the box to the close of the box. That provides for entry using H&L.

There are two red horizontal broken lines contained within the box, they indicate open and close extremes for the time from the opening of the box to the close of the box. That provides for entry using O&C.

The grey coloured zones on the upper and lower side of the box indicate the buffer zone set at 7 pips (70 for the 5 digit display) from the H & L of the time from the opening of the box to the close of the box. That provides for entry using H&L +/- 7 pips. It can be changed to your own setting.

3_Level_ZZ_Semafor
I use it to differentiate between the fractals and the yellow3 is the most significant one, it travels in the direction of the trend and confirms the momentum, and it also indicates possible reversal. Please observe this indicator and do some more studies of it on you own. This indicator is designed to repaint, and at significant levels it does indicate a possibility of reversal. There is more to this indicator, I just travel in the direction of the 3rd and look at the failure of the pink2 as a continuation of the trend, away from the yellow3.

BobokusFibo

I use this indicator and among other things it is useful to indicate possible profit targets, once the market declares its direction.

TDcount
This is one of the Tom DeMark indicators. Please do your own study on it. I might post something on it later.
Please read book written by Jason Perl, DeMark Indicators, if not please delete this indicator from the tpl.


Final note:

Please feel free to contribute in developing this approach, but please be serious, as nobody needs wasting time.
I am aware that there are various approaches and Claudia has started a good thread on Frankfurt open, please study that thread, there are also some other worth reading threads on breakout strats on this forum and on other forums like FF.
This one I have written it for a friend of mine who does not have too much time for trading and I thought that this should help. The intention is to set up trades and once in trade to use trailing stop, and if possible to set the profit target indicated by the BobkusFibo, but still using trailing stop. Different trading platforms allow different settings.
I have traded the “US close 20” for well over 2 years, it is a good approach and it forms a part of my overall trading, but by no means it is the only approach I use.
The initial SL and profit target might be setup conservatively at 20/30 pips e.g. OCO. I optimise this approach. One way to optimise it is to use trailing stop, or take the profits manually at the poss price exhostion when PA reaches given PT, or the ATR has beem achieved for that traiding day. ( I also use the Delta counts which provides the direction on the Daily TF and EW with Fibs, I do not have large positions against Delta, though I take intraday trades based on momentum and breakouts against Delta, but always with conservative SL, or Trailing Stop. For more please read the other threads on JUJU, and other materials, books and forums)
Attached Files
File Type: ex4 petertdailypivots.ex4 (4.7 KB, 246 views)
File Type: ex4 BreakOut-EAGLE_indicator SI 01.ex4 (8.9 KB, 244 views)
File Type: mq4 BobokusFibo.mq4 (4.6 KB, 237 views)
File Type: mq4 3_Level_ZZ_Semafor.mq4 (7.9 KB, 241 views)
File Type: mq4 Magnified Market Price.mq4 (1.5 KB, 249 views)
File Type: tpl us close 20.tpl (189.1 KB, 246 views)

Last edited by 2be; Dec 17, 2009 at 7:11pm. Reason: added content
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Old Jun 29, 2011, 3:42pm   #2
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Re: Breakout +/- 20 of the US close

2be started this thread Incredible, it is over 18 months since I have pointed the +/- 20 pips taken from the previous day's close of the US session at 9.30 pm (London time). I still use that approach, though in conjunction with other trading strats, and it is working well for my style of trading.
Important note regarding the use of any and every indicator/s or trading strat/s.
When the market goes in the opposite direction to your position, get out with minimum loss, unless it is a "strong conviction trade" BUT STILL with SL, though the SL might be larger than normal.
It is important to observe what the PA is doing, whether the market is moving in the profitable direction, or otherwise. There is always a good reason for the price to be at the current level.
Whether a given set up works well for you or on occasions it does not work well, it is important to observe your own reaction/s, the effects, remembering the initial reasons for the trade and the way risk has been calculated.
Trade well, and do not take unnecessary large risk/s!
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Old Jan 13, 2012, 2:06pm   #3
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Re: Breakout +/- 20 of the US close

2be started this thread I am still using this approach for FX trading, alongside Delta and others.
To make is a bit easier I have made (my programmer has made )a few changes to the peterdailypivots indicator, it is essentially the same but the lines can be made thicker and the values are displayed for an easier reading. I also have renamed that indicator as usclose_ +-20.
This is a simple approach to trading but make sure that your order is in direction of a trend of a higher TF and SL should not be too close, thus allowing for breathing. As this is an intra day strategy I usually take profit based on targets or by employing a trailing stop, which allows me some more freedom away from the computer/s.
Happy trading, 2be

Europe Crisis Rescue Begins With MIT Men - Bloomberg A very interesting reading too.
Attached Files
File Type: ex4 usclose_+-20.ex4 (6.7 KB, 229 views)
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Old Jan 13, 2012, 4:49pm   #4
 
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Re: Breakout +/- 20 of the US close

Missed this thread 2be!

Good stuff as usual. 2 Questions.

1- Could you post a chart or two?
2-What are you trading this on, cable? EURUSD?
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Old Jan 13, 2012, 7:34pm   #5
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Re: Breakout +/- 20 of the US close

2be started this thread Hi Hotch,
I trade G/U and E/U and occasionally some other pairs too, though I follow all majors and some crosses on H4 using this indicator, just to see what they are doing in relation to the previous day "close" at the close of the US session. This observation leads me to believe that many other currency pairs can be traded that way, as I have followed that same chart set up well over the last 4 years.
I also have been using currency strength meter with somehow less success (in my personal experience), but the fx map of the main currencies correlation is of great use, especially at confirming the good set-ups. there is a very good thread on T2W on fxcorrelation, and the simple but good indicator can be downloaded from that that http://www.trade2win.com/boards/fore...trategies.html
Also there is a good version of Trader Dynamic Index available on MT4, which has been well modified and I find it useful. Prior to that I have been using something similar on Dynamic Trader software, very basic indication of trend.
Attached chart is my M30 setup on G/U and E/U which I use everyday, please observe how Semafor indicator proves helpful (alongside with the SHI Channel), even in deciding the points to draw fibs. The usclose_+-20 indicator displays now the values set on "ask".
On both pairs there were good trades, please draw your own conclusion/s on the reversal of G/U and the continuing strength of the USD displayed on the fx correlation indicator and the E/U chart itself, that have also given clue to the second trade (shorting) the G/U with the exit at the low where semafor gave "3" at the SHI channel. Not bad for Friday on both currencies!
I use other TFs too this is just M30 set up on which I use Market profile too.
Hope it helps.
2be
Quote:
Originally Posted by Hotch View Post
Missed this thread 2be!

Good stuff as usual. 2 Questions.

1- Could you post a chart or two?
2-What are you trading this on, cable? EURUSD?
Attached Thumbnails
g-u-market-profile-m30-13-jan-2012.gif   e-u-market-profile-m30-13-jan-2012.gif  

Last edited by 2be; Jan 13, 2012 at 7:53pm.
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Old Mar 17, 2012, 10:18pm   #6
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Re: Breakout +/- 20 of the US close

2be started this thread Last few weeks have been more difficult to trade, however I find that this simple US close +/- 20 is providing some reasonable entries. I have found that it is important to observe the trend on a higher TF, so if I trade on M30 as my trigger TF I also look on H1 and H4 for the trend direction, and the +/- 20 indicator and the "war zone" between these lines is one of the final stage in getting in and out of the trade.
This also affords a very exact entry point based on the PA.
It is also very important to study Daily TF and have a clear idea of possible moves for the coming day/s or session.
When I enter trade using this approach I put the initial SL on the other side of the "war zone", and adjust it to the middle and then to BE at a reasonable speed, but still allowing the trade to breath. Once in a reasonable profit I adjust stop manually, or use trailing stop, taking care for the achieved ATR on a given day.
Forex correlator indicator is also useful in confirming the speed of progress or pointing to the limits of further profits.
Over all I find this approach to work for longer intra day "position" trades, as opposed to pure scalping for 15 to 30 pips.
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Old Mar 22, 2012, 10:30pm   #7
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Re: Breakout +/- 20 of the US close

2be started this thread G/U and E/U both pairs provided good entries today.
G/Y has also been very active today, well confirmed by the Fxcorraltor.
Have posted just the two charts, but this approach works well with other pairs too.
Good trades to all,
2be
Attached Thumbnails
g-u-market-profile-m30-22-03-2012.gif   e-u-market-profile-m30-22-03-2012.gif  
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Old Mar 28, 2012, 12:18am   #8
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Re: Breakout +/- 20 of the US close

2be started this thread Later on today I see a good opportunity to short G/U.
This proposed short trade is counter trend trade in respect of a trend on a higher TF so be careful. (please read my post on Delta thread), bur everything is in place for a short in excess of 200 pips by Friday, if delta timing is correct.
My trigger to add large positions to short is the PA below 1.5939 indicated by the +/- 20 us close lines.
In addition to that the fibs extensions from the previous day range shall provide some insight/s for some profit targets if one does not want to wait till the 1.57 zone is achieved probably by Friday.

As the markets are correlated there shall also be opportunity to short other pairs to the usd.
Attached Thumbnails
g-u-market-profile-m30-28-03-2012.gif   g-u-pac-h4-28-03-2012.gif  

Last edited by 2be; Mar 28, 2012 at 9:45am.
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