Applicability

This is a discussion on Applicability within the Trading Delta Cycles forums, part of the Specialists' Corner category; http://www.trade2win.com/boards/fore...l-ju-ju-3.html The link above was the original Ju-Ju thread, where I tried to see whether there were any patterns. I ...

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Old Jun 6, 2009, 9:15am   #1
 
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Applicability

http://www.trade2win.com/boards/fore...l-ju-ju-3.html

The link above was the original Ju-Ju thread, where I tried to see whether there were any patterns.
I was working on the basis that rather than pick a number, and trying to impose them onto the charts, I would try to gather data using a vague concept, and see if any patterns emerged.
For example, rather than say the moon phase of 28 days works, and then try to prove it, I would just look for peaks/troughs, and I might discover that the cycle was actually 32 days. This would result in discovery, rather than trying to account for discrepancies in a pre-conceived notion.

Anyway, this thread, hopefully can act as a sandpit for posting charts or ideas.
This way, the core threads of Gann, Jenkins and Delta can remain focussed on their main subjects.

Applicability: I want to see charts of consecutive hits. And also some assessment of their tradeability, in terms of stop-losses and risk control. Single charts showing one hit doesnt work for me! Since, if this Ju-Ju is to be seen as a valid trading method, the same risk control has to be applied that you would to conventional trading.
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Old Jun 7, 2009, 11:11am   #2
 
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trendie started this thread Heres my reading of the SPX Gann that hwsteele posted. (I dont want to mess up the flow of that thread, so I am posting it here)

My perspective:
Rather than say that squares are valid, I want to look at the chart, and note the obvious highs and lows.
(This saves us the hassle of trying to force-fit a square when it may not be valid.)
Then, I will calculate the differences between the various dates between highs and lows that occur from the May-19th high of 1444.
Then I will see how many squares are hit. (in so doing, seee how many are not hit)
One of the things that was apparent when I did the original Ju-Ju thread, was to make allowances for dates that end on Monday or Friday. My reasoning is that the world doesnt stop on weekends, and that the true high or low could have occurred on Sat or Sun had the market been open, so allow a tolerance of 4 days for the squares. (eg, if the last High was on a Monday, and the next Low is after 63 days, you could argue that had the markets been open on the Sunday, we would get the 8-square of 64, rather than 63. I know this may appear skewy, but I am allowing for nature rather than man-made restrictions)

Anyway, I post two pics. The first is of the SPX, starting from the high, I highlighted May-19th, then eyeballed highs and lows. (I daresay I may have missed some out. But, if a pattern genuinely emerges, I can address them later. But if there is no pattern, I dont want to go down the dead-end of force-fitting just to make some numbers appear arbitrarily significant)

The second pic is a spreadsheet. I mark the days, then the difference in days from the May-19th.
The other columns count the days from the next date. (eg, column E is number of days elapsed from 15/07/08. Column F is number of days elapsed from 11/08/08, etc)
Yellow boxes are squares, higher than 36 (as tolerances of 4 days for 36 or less makes them almost random. eg, for 25, the tolerance of 4 days is 15%. the 4 days tolerance for 16 is 25%! I could not make a strong case for these lower numbers to skeptic. Also, I wouldnt put money on these numbers)
Column-I is not coloureed simply because the difference between its earlier column is just 1 day.
Attached Thumbnails
gann-001.jpg   gann-001a.jpg  
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# If the only tool you have is a hammer, you tend to see every problem as a nail - Abraham Maslow
# There are 10 kinds of people in the world; those that understand binary, and those that dont. -Anon
# Ed Seykotas Whipsaw Song http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LiE1V...Wlxk8&index=10
# Defeat is temporary. Giving up makes it permanent. Anon
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Thanks! The following members like this post: hwsteele
Old Jun 7, 2009, 3:29pm   #3
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by trendie View Post
Heres my reading of the SPX Gann that hwsteele posted. (I dont want to mess up the flow of that thread, so I am posting it here)

My perspective:
Rather than say that squares are valid, I want to look at the chart, and note the obvious highs and lows.
(This saves us the hassle of trying to force-fit a square when it may not be valid.)
Then, I will calculate the differences between the various dates between highs and lows that occur from the May-19th high of 1444.
Then I will see how many squares are hit. (in so doing, seee how many are not hit)
One of the things that was apparent when I did the original Ju-Ju thread, was to make allowances for dates that end on Monday or Friday. My reasoning is that the world doesnt stop on weekends, and that the true high or low could have occurred on Sat or Sun had the market been open, so allow a tolerance of 4 days for the squares. (eg, if the last High was on a Monday, and the next Low is after 63 days, you could argue that had the markets been open on the Sunday, we would get the 8-square of 64, rather than 63. I know this may appear skewy, but I am allowing for nature rather than man-made restrictions)

Anyway, I post two pics. The first is of the SPX, starting from the high, I highlighted May-19th, then eyeballed highs and lows. (I daresay I may have missed some out. But, if a pattern genuinely emerges, I can address them later. But if there is no pattern, I dont want to go down the dead-end of force-fitting just to make some numbers appear arbitrarily significant)

The second pic is a spreadsheet. I mark the days, then the difference in days from the May-19th.
The other columns count the days from the next date. (eg, column E is number of days elapsed from 15/07/08. Column F is number of days elapsed from 11/08/08, etc)
Yellow boxes are squares, higher than 36 (as tolerances of 4 days for 36 or less makes them almost random. eg, for 25, the tolerance of 4 days is 15%. the 4 days tolerance for 16 is 25%! I could not make a strong case for these lower numbers to skeptic. Also, I wouldnt put money on these numbers)
Column-I is not coloureed simply because the difference between its earlier column is just 1 day.


I hope every one learns from trendie here to "do your own work"!
My hats off to you for not only doing your own work but sharing it too.
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Old Jun 10, 2009, 1:33pm   #4
 
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trendie started this thread Another component of applicability is these esoteric principles' usefulness as an actual trading method.

I am wondering if it would be useful to have a bog-standard, indicator-derived baseline system (#) to serve as a comparison. Each system, whether it be Gann, Delta, Sup/Res is used because the trader believes an edge is derived from using it.
For example, a recently banned member, wasp, is fairly consistently banking 500 pips per week, trading GJ only. His position-sizing is such that he is effectively doubling the funds size every month, ie, 4 weeks. He stops once the target is hit for the week.

Allowing for the volatility of GJ (or any pair), and using some kind of normalising logic, (eg, show the pips made as a function of the weeks range, to better compare one pair with another), can we prove Gann, Delta or Jenkins can provide better returns?

Thats really the nub, isnt it?

EDIT: (#): or a daily range breakout. anything really.
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# If the only tool you have is a hammer, you tend to see every problem as a nail - Abraham Maslow
# There are 10 kinds of people in the world; those that understand binary, and those that dont. -Anon
# Ed Seykotas Whipsaw Song http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LiE1V...Wlxk8&index=10
# Defeat is temporary. Giving up makes it permanent. Anon
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Old Jun 21, 2009, 1:04pm   #5
 
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trendie started this thread ok; another aspect of "numerology". Carrying on from hwsteeles post (maybe not on this forum), I have again applied Zig-Zag to give some form of objectivity.
Does "21" show up regularly?
I have applied Zig-Zag to 30-min bars to GJ. for frst 3 weeks of May.
What I am getting is multiples of 4 hrs. And quite a few for 8hrs. (allowing for a 1-bar tolerance, 7.5 and 8.5 are valid hits.)
make of it what you will.
clearly the problem is knowing which peak/trough will last the 8 hrs without reversing.

NB: I am restarting the count at beginning of each week. The blue numbers are used when the zig-zag shows a big swing. (I am doing this as the volatility may hide a minor swing that isnt captured). The black numbers are zig-zags.

EDIT: another thing, when the market is congesting, the zig-zag peak/trough may be arbitrary, and thus a hit could be valid even though its outside the 8-hr tolerance, since any trade wthin the congestion could be valid. this is clearly a grey area, and I dont want to do this, as it may be a form of self-fulfilling prophecy if I allow such thoughts too soon.

EDIT2: 8hrs therefore a count of 16 (15 or 17) when seen in 30-min bars.
Attached Thumbnails
numero-001.jpg   numero-002.jpg   numero-003.jpg  

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# If the only tool you have is a hammer, you tend to see every problem as a nail - Abraham Maslow
# There are 10 kinds of people in the world; those that understand binary, and those that dont. -Anon
# Ed Seykotas Whipsaw Song http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LiE1V...Wlxk8&index=10
# Defeat is temporary. Giving up makes it permanent. Anon
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Old Jun 26, 2009, 11:10pm   #6
 
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trendie started this thread another two weeks worth of counting highs to lows.
perhaps I should also count highs to highs, and lows to lows.
that aside, the orange box is midnight (asian open), the mauve is 7am euro open, and the turquoise is 14pm, US open.

last week didnt show as many 8 hr loops, but this week did.
however, the times that peaks were achieved coinciding with session opens is more pronounced perhaps.
I really want to believe in some cosmic events, but the prosaic solution is to ride the sessional momentum.
I will still carry on looking for numerical significances.
Attached Thumbnails
gu-jun26a.jpg   gu-jun26b.jpg  
__________________
# If the only tool you have is a hammer, you tend to see every problem as a nail - Abraham Maslow
# There are 10 kinds of people in the world; those that understand binary, and those that dont. -Anon
# Ed Seykotas Whipsaw Song http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LiE1V...Wlxk8&index=10
# Defeat is temporary. Giving up makes it permanent. Anon
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