Delta Phenomenon

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Old May 13, 2009, 10:02am   #1
 
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Delta Phenomenon

This thread to explore Delta in a supportive environment.
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Old May 13, 2009, 11:03am   #2
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Originally Posted by trendie View Post
This thread to explore Delta in a supportive environment.
Since this is a private thread, charts will only be visible to members, so some level of confidentiality is maintained.
Great work Trendie to put this private forum together.
To start I would like to state that Delta approach the way I have been using is only one of some other possible. Not to repeat myself too much, I might import some of my earlier posts on this forum.
I would strongly suggest to read and study Robert MIner's books, Dynamic Trading and High Probability Trading Strategies, these two books are not about Delta, but about some important trading principles which are very useful in the way that I use delta.
EW and Fibs are especially very important and these books are well writtren.
Next book is The Delta Phenomenon by Welles Wilder, an essential book to study, and if possible watch the Delta video recorded by Steve Copan. (Market Matrix). I do not follow Steve Copan atm, but his videos are really well done.
http://www.trade2win.com/boards/gene...es-welder.html
For the newcomers reading some posts int the above thread might be useful.

Last edited by 2be; May 13, 2009 at 2:18pm. Reason: added content
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Old May 15, 2009, 11:22am   #3
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Hi everyone,

Just dropping to say hi.

I am excited to have a community of Delta users / practicioners to compare my chart with. I am by no means an expert Delta user, although I like it a lot since it gives me a sense of direction and better confidence in trading.

I first got to know Delta technique a year ago from from one of the members in DailyFX. However, sadly I am probably the only one left over there who still actively post and no one else seems to truly use this technique seriously. That's why I am excited to know there's a special Delta private forum, and I hope I can get to know the point of view of other users of this trading technique.

Since I was introduced to Delta about a year ago, I studied it and bought Market Matrix CD from Steve Copan at online auction sites at really good price. Since then, I am using it and faithfully updating the count with the use of Dynamic Trader software.

In my limited use experience, I personally feel that Delta has some of its flaws like any trading method, but somehow I still like it since it provides me with general trend and timing. But of course this could probably due to me being not experienced and good at Delta.

I am still learning and trying to be consistent with my trading result, and wish to learn from other great traders in this forum.

I currently use Delta cycle analysis on GBP USD and will post my chart here so I can discuss with other fellow Delta users / practicioners / observers. At the moment, I am not able to access my own computer yet, so I could not post a chart yet. But I will do it as soon as I can.

I have my own blog for Delta trading on GBP USD. The website is:
Delta Trading

I look forward to contribute and learn from others.
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Old May 16, 2009, 10:16am   #4
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Originally Posted by cmellon View Post
Hi everyone,

Just dropping to say hi.

I am excited to have a community of Delta users / practicioners to compare my chart with. I am by no means an expert Delta user, although I like it a lot since it gives me a sense of direction and better confidence in trading.

I first got to know Delta technique a year ago from from one of the members in DailyFX. However, sadly I am probably the only one left over there who still actively post and no one else seems to truly use this technique seriously. That's why I am excited to know there's a special Delta private forum, and I hope I can get to know the point of view of other users of this trading technique.

Since I was introduced to Delta about a year ago, I studied it and bought Market Matrix CD from Steve Copan at online auction sites at really good price. Since then, I am using it and faithfully updating the count with the use of Dynamic Trader software.

In my limited use experience, I personally feel that Delta has some of its flaws like any trading method, but somehow I still like it since it provides me with general trend and timing. But of course this could probably due to me being not experienced and good at Delta.

I am still learning and trying to be consistent with my trading result, and wish to learn from other great traders in this forum.

I currently use Delta cycle analysis on GBP USD and will post my chart here so I can discuss with other fellow Delta users / practicioners / observers. At the moment, I am not able to access my own computer yet, so I could not post a chart yet. But I will do it as soon as I can.

I have my own blog for Delta trading on GBP USD. The website is:
Delta Trading

I look forward to contribute and learn from others.
Hi Cmellon,
Great to see you here.
Within the last year or so, the market seems to have changed in a way that many would have not experienced its volatility, characteritic with the market cycle on a very long Time Frame. Yet this market behaviour is not a "one off" and totally unique, as one might be tempted to think, simply because we are in the middle of it it atm. What one needs to do is to step back and try to see the larger picture, without the emotional attachment of either loosing, missing or preferably catching the rescent markets moves.
Delta principles are few and simple and a careful student of the market using Delta has access to gain perspective on short and long TFs in a reasonably less complicataed ways comparred to other methods.
For me personally the usefulness of Delta surpasses its limitations, there is not a single flowless approch to the market.
One of the principles that I apply in trading is the Principle of Gearing.
This principle is applied in many different ways, for the needs of Delta, it is applied to different TFs. During the less volatile markets the gearing of ITD to MTD was reasonably sufficient, not so now. Who a couple of years ago would bother about the SLTD, when LTD was thought to be a too long TF to be precise about it. Market volatility has made other traders and myself looking at these longer TF with a new interest.
I currently use two ways to make the couts, especially when they are challenging and one cannot easly put them together on a given TF.
So I firstly use a bottom to top approach, meaning from the shorter ITD count to the longer MTD, and being aware where the LTD is likely to be.
Then I reverse and use the top to bottom approach meaning from the longer SLTD, to LTD to MTD and finally to ITD.
ITD has the immediate application providing the direction for the next few, or several days, but in this high volatility, and with more time spend using Delta, MTD has also become very important for me. At times I wander which one is more important ITD or MTD? For the immediate it is ITD, but when my ITD count is challenging (I am not too sure about it) I put more value on MTD, just in case I am not right on ITD.
Over this weekend I shall do more work on counts and shall post the chart. The above is for the benifit to the people wo are very new to Delta, and for others to share, add or comment on their own approach to aplly Delta in their trading.
Good weekend to everybody,
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Old May 17, 2009, 6:12pm   #5
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I am starting with posting a log term EW perspective of the ABC corrective, with the C near its completion. This suspect rally might continue, but the upside potentials are somehow limited.
This is done on a time grid and brackets identifying Delta turns, for added Delta time perspective.
There is a note of caution, with EW counts, the C is to be confirmed. Pls read on it in EW literature, as there is an ever present possibility, however unlikely on this occasion, that this ABC corrective might turn to become 12345 impulsive.
The expected timing for this low is at the end of June, and the beginning of July tis year, well within the red brackets of the MTD2. The arrow is only for orientation and might, (should) preserve the parrallel character to the two prievous moves down, with the max upside potential in the region of 1.5718, as the sucker's rally might take it there on a massive speculative spike to shake the well expected shorts.
The expected window in relation to time is in the area of MTD2 of the new cycle. LTD16. the last low in the present cycle and SLTD2 of the new cycle just being established.
Please take note that all of these Delta cycles can sping an additional point/s as all of them are in the ITW (Invertion Time Window) making this count even more challenging.
For clarity I have only marked EW on this chart, without the multi TF Delta counts. This shall I do on the other chart attached with the next post.
Attached Thumbnails
gu-ew-16-may-2009.gif  

Last edited by 2be; May 17, 2009 at 6:23pm.
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Old May 17, 2009, 7:33pm   #6
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This is my ITD MTD and LTD count. Please note that this suspect rally might continue for the next few days, if the H is not taken, then ITD 10 will be in together with the MTD 11 and LTD15.
MTD11 would be very late if this is the case, and only observation that I can make is that it came so very late as it travelled in the direction of the H on the highier LTD TF.
The expected move down is indicated by the red window in accordance with the TRZ (Time Rytm Zone) in the bottom indicator window and in accordance with PRZ (Price Rythm Zone) indicated by the coloured lines on the righr side of the chart. These two reports are showing fibs confluence zones automatically, but please do your own fibs as this is only an approximation. I shall also post the same chart with tabled indicators icluding DTP (Dynamic Time Projection) and FTB (Fibs Time Blitz) These indicators form part of the DT software and I do find them useful at this early stage of the expected move. I also use fibs manually for more precission and confidence.
Please also study cmellon count and his long perspective which is similar, with a few differently labelled points.
Attached Thumbnails
gbp-usd-itd-mtd-16-05-09.gif   gbp-usd-itd-mtd-16-05-09-02.gif  
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Old May 17, 2009, 10:29pm   #7
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Thoughts on cable for tomorow:
I shall be looking at the equitie's futures, as the cable might indeed carry on to the upside, only if the equties are matching that move. This rally up is suspect and I shall take profits at any sign of a momentum slowdown. Expected ATR in the region of 170, there is a reversal formation on H1, shall see the opening and the Asian session reaction to the Fri losses on the Wall St.
The H4 tramlines look awsome, and if the equties in Asian session go down this indeed might be cable negative.
VP H:1.5250 L: 1.5082 Poss PT for shorts 1.5040 and 1.4940 any of these 2 levels might provide a revesal apportunity to the upside, and 1.5250 a reversal to the downside. If the price goes well below 1.4920, I shall short, as this might indicate that the beginning of a major move to the downside had been initiated. Pls always check the H4/ H1 momentum set up for the intraday positions.
M5 to M15 to H1 intraday cycles is quite a different strat which I use, but even then I like to go in the direction of Delta, if it is clearly discerned.
Please do your own analysis this is just an indication of some important zones for the cable.
There shall be more data to get a better idea on Mon morning, when I trade I shall not post much, unless the markets are quiet. Do not want to loose my focus, and this thread is primarily about Delta, so I am trying to provide you how the Delta approach can be put into practice for the intra day trading.
Wishing all many good trades,
2be
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Old May 18, 2009, 3:32am   #8
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USD Weakness Complete?

In trying to project whether USD weakness is likely to stop and reverse, I am looking for the USD Index since it's possible to do Elliot Wave count quite easily with it.

It seems to me that USD weakness is still likely to continue even though we have some evidence of currency reversal.

I will be looking for a more significant top in GBP, EUR, AUD, and others once USD Index reaches 50% fib at below 80.
Attached Thumbnails
usd-index.gif  
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Old May 19, 2009, 4:03am   #9
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Cable - Closing In for A Long Term Top

Hi everyone,

Here's my latest Delta chart. We should be on the way to ITD 11 high which is due around May 27.

A medium term top (MTD 1 high) could be due together with ITD 11 high, and if this is the case, this would also be a Long Term top (LTD 15 high) as well.

However, medium term top (MTD 1 high) and long term top (LTD 15 high) could be due later at ITD 2. If this is the case, it will be due at around June 22. My guess is that MTD 1 high and LTD 15 high will be due here around this time. Price level wise probably around 1.6, but we'll look at it more when time is near. Also keep monitoring Dollar Index chart, as we could do a pretty clear Elliot Wave count on it.

In any case, a long term top will soon be due, giving an excellent opportunity to short for a long term or medium term time frame.

For those interested in super long term time frame, I believe that Super Long Term bottom (SLTD 2 low) was already IN at 1.35. Thus, even if we break down from LTD 15 to LTD 16, it should not break lower than 1.35. But I would not worry too much about this for now as this is a very long time frame. As time goes by, SLTD position will get clearer.
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Old May 19, 2009, 9:40am   #10
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Originally Posted by cmellon View Post
Hi everyone,

Here's my latest Delta chart. We should be on the way to ITD 11 high which is due around May 27.

A medium term top (MTD 1 high) could be due together with ITD 11 high, and if this is the case, this would also be a Long Term top (LTD 15 high) as well.

However, medium term top (MTD 1 high) and long term top (LTD 15 high) could be due later at ITD 2. If this is the case, it will be due at around June 22. My guess is that MTD 1 high and LTD 15 high will be due here around this time. Price level wise probably around 1.6, but we'll look at it more when time is near. Also keep monitoring Dollar Index chart, as we could do a pretty clear Elliot Wave count on it.

In any case, a long term top will soon be due, giving an excellent opportunity to short for a long term or medium term time frame.

For those interested in super long term time frame, I believe that Super Long Term bottom (SLTD 2 low) was already IN at 1.35. Thus, even if we break down from LTD 15 to LTD 16, it should not break lower than 1.35. But I would not worry too much about this for now as this is a very long time frame. As time goes by, SLTD position will get clearer.
The previuos H @ 1.5354 has been taken so that H is not an ITD, I shall update my count later on.
Well done cmellon, especilaay for the early positioning of the MTDs.
I shall update my counts to reflect this change, as the ITD - MTD structure has to reflect this last move.
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Old May 19, 2009, 12:04pm   #11
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The previuos H @ 1.5354 has been taken so that H is not an ITD, I shall update my count later on.
Well done cmellon, especilaay for the early positioning of the MTDs.
I shall update my counts to reflect this change, as the ITD - MTD structure has to reflect this last move.
Hi 2be,

I am just lucky
I am also aware with the possibility that 1.5354 could be a late ITD 9 and MTD 11. But my rationale for the early MTD positioning is that it would seem to me that a late MTD 11 at 1.5354 would mess up the MTD 12 position since it will mean that MTD 12 will also have to arrive very late. Hence I stick with my original count. The other thing is that the USD Index does not seem to finish the C wave, so I thought the overall near term direction is still USD weaknesses.
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Old May 20, 2009, 11:56pm   #12
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Hi 2be,

I am just lucky
I am also aware with the possibility that 1.5354 could be a late ITD 9 and MTD 11. But my rationale for the early MTD positioning is that it would seem to me that a late MTD 11 at 1.5354 would mess up the MTD 12 position since it will mean that MTD 12 will also have to arrive very late. Hence I stick with my original count. The other thing is that the USD Index does not seem to finish the C wave, so I thought the overall near term direction is still USD weaknesses.
Cable at interesting level. Before doing the Delta update I thought to post this few charts with DiNapoli settings. It is possible that the aqua (light blue) TR ON H4 shall become support, for sometime at least, as it has been forecefully pierced, especially if the cable travells into the land od early 1.6 on this leg.
Please study the monthly chart and the 3 green line zones, and come to your own conclusion/s.
There shall be a retracement of the cable, and if it takes the 1.34 Low in due course,it would accomplish the Impulsive 5th from the 2007 H, if this Low is not taken, the 1.34 Low could be the C of an ABC corrective. Only time will tell, both are very possible.
In any case, this is a scenario that SL have to be well used, do not get married to any trade, being long or short, as the high volatility can take this pair very fast in either direction.
Attached Thumbnails
cable-m-20-05-din-pn.gif   cable-d-20-05-09-din-pn.gif   cable-h4-20-05-09-din-pn.gif  

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Old May 21, 2009, 12:37am   #13
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This count is "thinking aloud". Just considering the two poss outcomes. I am using 12 ITD counts, with a poss itd invertion, and a poss MTD 12 inverted too.
This is very much a working count, exploring a poss scenario.
Your comments are mosttly wellcomed.
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Old May 21, 2009, 4:28am   #14
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This count is "thinking aloud". Just considering the two poss outcomes. I am using 12 ITD counts, with a poss itd invertion, and a poss MTD 12 inverted too.
This is very much a working count, exploring a poss scenario.
Your comments are mosttly wellcomed.
Hi 2be,

Using your 12 ITD solutions, another possibility is ITD 12 inverts, making ITD 1 high later to be MTD 1 and LTD 15.

Worse yet, another possibility is ITD 12 inverts, and MTD 12 could also invert at ITD 1 high. This way, LTD 15 could even be higher. Delta rule allows a maximum of 3 MTDs plus 1 inverted MTD between two LTDs.

Both ITD and MTD are in Inversion TIme Zone right now, so there are many possible scenarios.
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Old May 21, 2009, 4:44am   #15
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Cable at interesting level. Before doing the Delta update I thought to post this few charts with DiNapoli settings. It is possible that the aqua (light blue) TR ON H4 shall become support, for sometime at least, as it has been forecefully pierced, especially if the cable travells into the land od early 1.6 on this leg.
Please study the monthly chart and the 3 green line zones, and come to your own conclusion/s.
There shall be a retracement of the cable, and if it takes the 1.34 Low in due course,it would accomplish the Impulsive 5th from the 2007 H, if this Low is not taken, the 1.34 Low could be the C of an ABC corrective. Only time will tell, both are very possible.
In any case, this is a scenario that SL have to be well used, do not get married to any trade, being long or short, as the high volatility can take this pair very fast in either direction.
My current bias is that 1.35 is SLTD 2 low. Looking at my Delta chart in Dynamic Trader, I see that LTD 16 time zone is between mid June - mid August.

We have had quite a ride from 1.35 - 1.58 (currently) from Jan 22 to May 21, a period of 4 months and more than 2000 pips increase. Suppose today is LTD 15 (and we probably could make an argument that LTD 15 will be due slightly later), we have only 3 months period or less to mid August before LTD 16 should be due.

Again the 2000+ pips gain is within a period of 4 months. I am not sure that within three months or less, we could completely retrace all these 2000 + pips gain and some more. Timing wise, it's not proportionate.

If we are going to retrace and take out 1.35 by mid August, fundamentally we get to see some big shocking news again, similar to the credit crisis last year.

If SLTD 2 low is IN at 1.35, then SLTD 3 high will not be due until later this year. Once LTD 16 low is due on mid August, we should rally again to LTD 17 (and LTD 17 should be higher than LTD 15). LTD 17 would most likely be also SLTD 3 high, due at the end of this year.

Just my 2 cents.
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Last edited by cmellon; May 21, 2009 at 6:22am.
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