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Old Jun 19, 2009, 1:17pm   #46
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2be,

What is your take of the current price action? It's quite close to the next turn date, and yet it's closer to 1.667 than to 1.58. Price so far is contained in this range and doesn't want to break either way. Any change of opinion or is it still the inverted ITD 11 as the preferred count?

Thanks.
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Old Jun 19, 2009, 3:27pm   #47
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Originally Posted by cmellon View Post
2be,

What is your take of the current price action? It's quite close to the next turn date, and yet it's closer to 1.667 than to 1.58. Price so far is contained in this range and doesn't want to break either way. Any change of opinion or is it still the inverted ITD 11 as the preferred count?

Thanks.
Hi Cmellon,
There are clearly visible overlapping waves on H4 and H1 TF, the expected impulsive had not happened yet. Instead there is corrective. I shall do some more work on it over the weekend.
One way or another there shall be a breakout either way, if this range persist for the next several TD then we have no option but to revise the count and the oveall cable direction.
I am of the opinion that the 1.6662H LTD15, is les likely to be taken out, due to Time factor on Delta counts.
There shall be some ideal apportunity for shorting, since the SL can be set up small distance above that H. If there is H Sunday opening I shall short it hard, indeed I am setting some short orders above 1.6620 with a hartd SL @1.6680. Nothing is certain in forex, but risking 60 pips for 500 - 700 pips profit seems to be a good ratio of risk/reward. Shall post some charts after the us close.

Last edited by 2be; Jun 19, 2009 at 8:33pm.
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Old Jun 24, 2009, 10:07am   #48
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Hi Cmellon,
There are clearly visible overlapping waves on H4 and H1 TF, the expected impulsive had not happened yet. Instead there is corrective. I shall do some more work on it over the weekend.
One way or another there shall be a breakout either way, if this range persist for the next several TD then we have no option but to revise the count and the oveall cable direction.
I am of the opinion that the 1.6662H LTD15, is les likely to be taken out, due to Time factor on Delta counts.
There shall be some ideal apportunity for shorting, since the SL can be set up small distance above that H. If there is H Sunday opening I shall short it hard, indeed I am setting some short orders above 1.6620 with a hartd SL @1.6680. Nothing is certain in forex, but risking 60 pips for 500 - 700 pips profit seems to be a good ratio of risk/reward. Shall post some charts after the us close.
There is a lot of "IFs". If cable reaches the 6627 - 6650 zone I would view it as a double inversion. If this zone is not reached, there will be a single inversion of the 12th. If the H 1.6662 is taken, it would mean a very late arrival of LTD15, an on this account it is less likely that this H will be taken.
First chart - sinle inversion, second chart - double inversion.
Attached Thumbnails
cable-single-inversion-24-06-09.gif   cable-double-inversion-itd-mtd-24-06-09.gif  

Last edited by 2be; Jun 24, 2009 at 10:10am. Reason: added charts
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Old Jun 24, 2009, 2:54pm   #49
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Originally Posted by 2be View Post
There is a lot of "IFs". If cable reaches the 6627 - 6650 zone I would view it as a double inversion. If this zone is not reached, there will be a single inversion of the 12th. If the H 1.6662 is taken, it would mean a very late arrival of LTD15, an on this account it is less likely that this H will be taken.
First chart - sinle inversion, second chart - double inversion.
Hi 2be,

GBP USD is indeed in a mess now. In your first chart, I think ITD 2 can not be that late per your chart. The current time zone should already be ITD 2 time zone. Targetting ITD 2 below 1.58 seems to take many days, so it seems this may not be the case.

So it seems the more plausible choices are:

1. Late LTD 15 arrival or
2. LTD 15 did arrive at ITD 12, but MTD 2 and LTD 16 have arrived at ITD (12). This scenario is not totally impossible I think. This is a very bullish count which targets much higher from this point.

There's still also a possible bearish count which fits Delta timing which is double inversion, but ITD 2 needs to be higher than ITD 1 per your second chart but below ITD 12.

What do you think?
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Old Jun 25, 2009, 3:09pm   #50
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cmellon View Post
Hi 2be,

GBP USD is indeed in a mess now. In your first chart, I think ITD 2 can not be that late per your chart. The current time zone should already be ITD 2 time zone. Targetting ITD 2 below 1.58 seems to take many days, so it seems this may not be the case.

So it seems the more plausible choices are:

1. Late LTD 15 arrival or
2. LTD 15 did arrive at ITD 12, but MTD 2 and LTD 16 have arrived at ITD (12). This scenario is not totally impossible I think. This is a very bullish count which targets much higher from this point.

There's still also a possible bearish count which fits Delta timing which is double inversion, but ITD 2 needs to be higher than ITD 1 per your second chart but below ITD 12.

What do you think?
Hi Cmellon,
You are right that the posted ITD count looks a bit messy. To redeem it I have gone for double inversion, just to tide the ITD count. What has been more important for me was the rejection of the 1.6600 zone, the MTD and LTD counts, and therefore the move down has been confirmed. Also a trader friend has observed wolf wave, he has been expecting if for a long time, and the overlapping vaves made it even more likely to happen.
This has provided a great shorting apportunity, with a minimum target indicated. For the day trading, I have coverred some shorts when on the H4 price has touched Starc band, and temporarily bounced of the SHI channell,Stochs and the Probability Meter indicated a slowdown of the donward momentum. There is still a lot of pips left, and I shall enter shorts on an expected pulback.
Attached Thumbnails
cable-itd-mtd-25-06-09.gif   cable-wolf-wave-25-06-09.gif   cable-wolf-wave-h4-25-06-09-din.gif  

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Old Jun 29, 2009, 9:25am   #51
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Range bound markets are very challenging in respect of calculating the counts especially on a highier TF. Delta is preoccupied with Time, and the distance between the different H & L in terms of pips is a secodary concern for pure Delta approach. This is just a reminder and a note of caution, as we might be entering a thinly traded week due to the summer holliday season.
Saying that, I still hold that LTD15 has happened, and until the price goes above it I have no choice but to hold that view.
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Old Jun 30, 2009, 4:58am   #52
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Originally Posted by 2be View Post
Range bound markets are very challenging in respect of calculating the counts especially on a highier TF. Delta is preoccupied with Time, and the distance between the different H & L in terms of pips is a secodary concern for pure Delta approach. This is just a reminder and a note of caution, as we might be entering a thinly traded week due to the summer holliday season.
Saying that, I still hold that LTD15 has happened, and until the price goes above it I have no choice but to hold that view.
Hi 2be,

It's broken already and I am wondering what would be the Delta count now.
It seems to me that the only count which makes sense, especially considering the very long range bound between 1.58 - 1.66 in the month of June is to treat 1.58 as MTD 2 and LTD 16. What do you think? The implication here is that we will keep moving up and 1.58 is a long term bottom.

Alternatively, how could we label the ITD between 1.58 to 1.66 (from June 8 - today)?
If we put ITD label during this period, we could see that there has been a series of higher high and higher low in ITD, which could only mean MTD is pointing up, and that LTD 16 has arrived.
Attached Thumbnails
gbp-usd-itd-june-30.gif  
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Last edited by cmellon; Jun 30, 2009 at 8:36am.
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Old Jun 30, 2009, 8:42am   #53
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2be,

As an alternative to my previous post, there is a way to get a bearish count, which is by ignoring the whole month of June. In other words, there is no ITD count between 1.58 to 1.66.

Here's a chart with this idea. The problem if we go with this idea is that the ITD timing is messed up. In this scearnio, ITD 2 arrives very late (It arrives at the ITD 3 time zone).

Interestingly though, attached MTD chart shows that in the past three cycles (I circle them) GBP USD formed a medium term top just slightly before red vertical line. And in the current cycle, the red vertical line is on July 7. So MTD chart actually says we are near medium term top, but it could still be the case that LTD 16 actually has arrived at 1.58 per my previous post. So even if we make a medium term high soon, my previous chart post could still be correct, and after we make MTD 2 high, we are travelling down to MTD 3 low and by Delta rule the next medium term low should not be lower than 1.58 if LTD is already travelling up.

Something to consider.
Attached Thumbnails
gbp-usd-itd-june-30-alternate-2.gif   gbp-usd-delta-mtd-june-26.gif  
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Last edited by cmellon; Jun 30, 2009 at 9:57am.
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Old Jun 30, 2009, 11:02am   #54
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cmellon View Post
Hi 2be,

It's broken already and I am wondering what would be the Delta count now.
It seems to me that the only count which makes sense, especially considering the very long range bound between 1.58 - 1.66 in the month of June is to treat 1.58 as MTD 2 and LTD 16. What do you think? The implication here is that we will keep moving up and 1.58 is a long term bottom.

Alternatively, how could we label the ITD between 1.58 to 1.66 (from June 8 - today)?
If we put ITD label during this period, we could see that there has been a series of higher high and higher low in ITD, which could only mean MTD is pointing up, and that LTD 16 has arrived.
Hi cmellon,
I think that your first count looks more likely to reflect my current thinking on G/U.
From Delta perspective, it is very challenging and I have to do some more thinking on the subject. I have expected cable to be range bound, but was of the opinion that we should have seen a dip below 1.58 before the next High, clearly it has not happend and one has to reconsider. On this account it looks like it might be necessary to fit the LTD16 retrospectively, arriving early.
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Old Jul 8, 2009, 1:46pm   #55
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Summer range and inversion time widow on ITD and MTD. Please compare this count with cmellon count on his blog. This one allows a bit more time for the LTD16, as the MTD inversion is differently organised. Both counts are possible and the difference is related to the timing of the LTD16
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Old Jul 8, 2009, 4:01pm   #56
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Summer range and inversion time widow on ITD and MTD. Please compare this count with cmellon count on his blog. This one allows a bit more time for the LTD16, as the MTD inversion is differently organised. Both counts are possible and the difference is related to the timing of the LTD16
Hi 2be,

It's been a while for me visiting this forum. I've been quite busy trading GBP JPY and others.

Our overall count structure and LTD 15 position is the same, but the MTD count is slightly different.

Delta rule only allows a maximum of three series of higher high except it's an inversion (then it could have more than three). If you count from LTD 14 to LTD 15,using your count, there are 5 MTD highs (MTD 9, MTD 11, MTD 1, and MTD 2).

If you use your count and we apply Delta rule strictly, LTD 15 high must arrive at MTD 1 high at 1.662 because MTD 1 in your count is the third MTD highs.

But in my count, you could see two MTD highs (MTD 9 and MTD 11) and two MTD inversions highs ( MTD (12) and MTD (1) ), and this is allowed under Delta rule.
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Old Jul 8, 2009, 6:00pm   #57
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Originally Posted by cmellon View Post
Hi 2be,

It's been a while for me visiting this forum. I've been quite busy trading GBP JPY and others.

Our overall count structure and LTD 15 position is the same, but the MTD count is slightly different.

Delta rule only allows a maximum of three series of higher high except it's an inversion (then it could have more than three). If you count from LTD 14 to LTD 15,using your count, there are 5 MTD highs (MTD 9, MTD 11, MTD 1, and MTD 2).

If you use your count and we apply Delta rule strictly, LTD 15 high must arrive at MTD 1 high at 1.662 because MTD 1 in your count is the third MTD highs.

But in my count, you could see two MTD highs (MTD 9 and MTD 11) and two MTD inversions highs ( MTD (12) and MTD (1) ), and this is allowed under Delta rule.
Hi cmellon,
Well spotted, this rule is in relation to the EW structure as well as adapted by Delta.
I have anticipated MTD inversion, and have looked at 12 to invert earlier on. I have ammended this inversion and 12 id invertwed instead of 1.
This count points to ealier arrival of LTD16, which is ok, the next SLTD is up anyway, so LTD 16 shall be on time or erlier.
Thanks for making me considering this count too, I have been aware of it, and have posted the other as a poss later arrival of the LTD16.
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Old Jul 14, 2009, 7:19am   #58
 
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trendie started this thread I admit I am confused with these counts.
Are they still as per your analysis? Or have they double inverted?
Seem range-bound, and thus no direction, unless the range 1.58 to 1.67 is broken.
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Old Jul 14, 2009, 8:13am   #59
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I admit I am confused with these counts.
Are they still as per your analysis? Or have they double inverted?
Seem range-bound, and thus no direction, unless the range 1.58 to 1.67 is broken.
Cable situation is still as unclear as ever. I am leaving this pair alone to trade others at the moment, since I do not have confidence in the pair and count.

Nonetheless, attached is what could be happening. It's unclear whether ITD 4 high has arrived at 1.638. Furthermore, this Delta count of mine has double inversion in both MTD and ITD. Yikes, I don't like it, since it should be very unlikely to have double inversions in both ITD and MTD. But so far it's really not clear what's going on with this pair.
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gbp-usd-itd-july-14.gif  
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Old Jul 14, 2009, 8:16am   #60
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The currency pair I currently trade is GBP JPY and USD JPY. Both I have the Delta counts at my blog.

Here's the latest Delta count and comment for GBP JPY

Comparison of ITD 8 highs to previous cycles indicate that it's due around this vicinity in terms of time. In the meantime, MTD and LTD are still travelling down at least until mid August, and therefore we shall get another low soon once ITD 8 high is IN.

GBP JPY Delta ITD chart shows us that ITD 9 low (and MTD 7 low) should be due on average on the yellow vertical line in the month of August. Target price is probably around 50% fib to 61.8% fib from the low 118 to the high 162.6.

However, looking at bigger picture GBP JPY Delta MTD chart, there's a good possibility that SLTD 4 low (Super Long Term Delta) has already arrived at 118. This bigger picture count is subject to change as I will reassess again next August. If it's as I projected, then SLTD in fact is travelling up and therefore we will not get any price lower than 118. When SLTD is travelling up, we will get a series of higher high and higher low LTD.

With this projection, there's a chance that MTD 7 low in mid August would also be LTD 10 low as I indicated in the MTD chart. If that is so,we will then move higher to LTD 11 (and this would also be SLTD 5 high) due on around November.
Attached Thumbnails
gbp-jpy-daily-itd-july-14.gif   gbp-jpy-mtd-july-14.gif  
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