Delta Phenomenon

This is a discussion on Delta Phenomenon within the Trading Delta Cycles forums, part of the Specialists' Corner category; Originally Posted by 2be The daily bar has closed at the time zone for the ITD H and it The ...

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Old May 28, 2009, 12:48pm   #25
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The daily bar has closed at the time zone for the ITD H and it The placement of that LTD15 for certain is very important, so please be on your guard, and do not allow yourself to be married to any position or uncertain opinion as to where the market should go.
I have thought about the LTD15 and comparred my counts with another delta friend.
Looking at the count from the larger TF to the next lower TF, that is from SLTD to LTD, I am taking the assumption that the Low SLTD2 has been established on 23rd Jan 2009 @1.3508, that means that cable on that TF is travelling to the next H SLTD3, that would make LTD 15 to come "on time or late". I shall continue with this post later on, trading atm.
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Old May 28, 2009, 1:06pm   #26
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I have thought about the LTD15 and comparred my counts with another delta friend.
Looking at the count from the larger TF to the next lower TF, that is from SLTD to LTD, I am taking the assumption that the Low SLTD2 has been established on 23rd Jan 2009 @1.3508, that means that cable on that TF is travelling to the next H SLTD3, that would make LTD 15 to come "on time or late". I shall continue with this post later on, trading atm.
2be,

Thanks. That's my assumption too.

Another thing that I am now thinking is that... the time window for LTD 16 is quite short. This makes me think that this SLTD upmove we have now is very strong, and thus I won't be surprised at all if LTD 17 is due at MTD 2. Price level wise, maybe we retrace 1000 pips or so.

This is exactly the mirror image of last year's credit crisis. Take a look at my (your) Delta chart to see how short is the distance (time wise) between LTD 12 and LTD 13. Between LTD 12 and LTD 13, there is only 1 MTD, 1200 pips distance in just 10 trading days.

So this time I won't be surprised if LTD 16 is also due one MTD away at MTD 2. SLTD 3 high will be due around November of this year. We could see 1.8 - 1.9 by November, it won't be totally out of question.

Just something to think about.
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Last edited by cmellon; May 28, 2009 at 1:14pm.
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Old May 28, 2009, 7:43pm   #27
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Originally Posted by 2be View Post
I have thought about the LTD15 and comparred my counts with another delta friend.
Looking at the count from the larger TF to the next lower TF, that is from SLTD to LTD, I am taking the assumption that the Low SLTD2 has been established on 23rd Jan 2009 @1.3508, that means that cable on that TF is travelling to the next H SLTD3, that would make LTD 15 to come "on time or late". I shall continue with this post later on, trading atm.
The big question atm is: IS THE LTD 15 IN???
I think that it is likely that LTD15 is in, I would point to the 1.6428 as a remote possibility, but atm I think this level shall not be reached.
The C has got a great crudencials to be called in, and the time is running out on the delta count for this LTD15 to get in, in another place. It would also involve ITD invertion, and poss MTD invertion too, in a fast succession. Single invertion is supposed to happen no more then 35% and a double invertion only 15%, so it is safer not to build the strategy on invertions, they are there to square the otherwise challenging counts, and they can only happen on the either or both (in the case of a double invertion) sides of the 1st point of the new cycle of the given TF.(tbc)
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cable-wk-ew-28-05-09.gif   cable-daily-ew-28-05-09.gif   cable-wk-ew-28-05-09-02.gif  


Last edited by 2be; May 28, 2009 at 10:52pm.
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Old May 29, 2009, 1:01am   #28
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This is a very long shot.
I have inverted MTD (12) (MTD (12)arriving late in the direction of LTD15 which itself is late in the direction of SLTD3). By this I shall be able to use MTD1 as a first leg down to LTD16. LTD16 shall come on time or early, as it is against the expected move up to SLTD3. I have left a lot of space on the right of the chart to provide perspective as to the possible arrival of LTD17 and SLTD3.
Please look at it as a perspective, it is not a prediction, and this count indicates time and not a price levels. For some idea of price zones pleas look at my silver colour charts posted earlier, there you will spot that cable has been range trading for several years, some of this range is likely to be repeated on this cycle. I would not be surprised if cable is rangebound between 1.5 to 1.9 for the next couple of years after establishing LTD16, again this is based by the levels prieviously observed.
We shall see, for now then I am expecting the 5th wave down, terminating at LTD16, thus ending the 5 EW impulsive which have started on the 9th Nov 2007 @2.1161. It is possible that this 5th EW will fail, but this large move down is expected to terminate this summer, poss in August.
It is dangerous to try such long projections for they might be blown to peaces by the market doing something very different. The reason I have posted this chart is to illustrate the type of perspective afforded by applying Delta. I am not trying to prove that Delta is the best approach in the world, but it does make you consider different possible scenarios well in advance, and this perspective can be filterred in to the position or intraday trading using different TF, and other filters.
If you lough at this chart, lough loud, (it is healthy) that is ok with me, I shall not be offended, if you make some pips, well spend them well.
So far this move from the H ITD12 has already provided serious pips by a few shorter term trades, the long multientry position is open and it is in profit too, protected by Stop well above BE.
I am expecting a serious re-test of this H, therefore the propective Stop. In the unlikely but nevertheless possible scenario that this H is taken, I shall look for the new levels to establish shorts, that is trading, nothing to be taken for granted or as 100% certain.
Many pips to you all,
2be
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Old May 29, 2009, 1:28am   #29
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2be,

I like your idea of MTD 12 inversion, and therefore establishing MTD 1 as the first leg.
If the SLTD move is so strong, in your case MTD 1 itself could have been LTD 16 since it's within the time frame of LTD 16 arrival, but this is assuming that LTD 15 has arrived.
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Old May 29, 2009, 7:01am   #30
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Hi everyone,

I still could not confirm the arrival of ITD 11 because there's still no reversal confirmation that I am looking for. I am looking for a daily candle close below the low of the signal day (signal day is the latest day that makes the highest high). In our case, the low of signal day now is 1.592, and we still could not get a daily candle close below 1.592.

There are three possibilities at this point:

1. If 1.608 holds, then ITD 11 may have arrived on time at May 27.

2. ITD 11 could arrive late in which case we should see more high in this next couple of days before a more meaningful reversal

2. ITD 11 has arrived on time at May 27, but then inverted at 1.585, and now going higher to ITD 1 due around June 11. You could see this illustration in my previous post titled 3 possible locations for LTD. The inversion is illustrated at the second chart.

We need several more days to determine which one is more likely.
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Last edited by cmellon; May 29, 2009 at 7:19am.
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Old May 29, 2009, 9:55am   #31
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Originally Posted by cmellon View Post
Hi everyone,

I still could not confirm the arrival of ITD 11 because there's still no reversal confirmation that I am looking for. I am looking for a daily candle close below the low of the signal day (signal day is the latest day that makes the highest high). In our case, the low of signal day now is 1.592, and we still could not get a daily candle close below 1.592.

There are three possibilities at this point:

1. If 1.608 holds, then ITD 11 may have arrived on time at May 27.

2. ITD 11 could arrive late in which case we should see more high in this next couple of days before a more meaningful reversal

2. ITD 11 has arrived on time at May 27, but then inverted at 1.585, and now going higher to ITD 1 due around June 11. You could see this illustration in my previous post titled 3 possible locations for LTD. The inversion is illustrated at the second chart.

We need several more days to determine which one is more likely.
As I am typing cable sits just below the 6085 H and seems to be bouncing of it. If this H is taken then 1.64 zone is the next poss target, for now 6085 level still holds on and despite the GBP positive news I have gone short, with a tight SL just above the last H.
Fundamentally on account of the news cable should fly up, but TA provides such a good entry with a reasonable and meaningful SL.
I do agree with pointing the three poss scenarios in relation to the current ITD point.
Market shall show us the way it has chosen to go.
I shall update over the weekend, then we will know what has happen.
Have a great weekend everybody,
2be

PS. this is a fast update, have been stopped, with a very small loss as the H has been taken by just a few pips atm. Shall re-evaluate the next itd/mtd/ltd over the this weekend. In a longer perspective nothing has changed. the next ITD does not have that much time to get in, as it is limited (time wise ) by the expected arrival of the LTD15.

Last edited by 2be; May 29, 2009 at 10:28am. Reason: added PS content
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Old Jun 1, 2009, 1:00pm   #32
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2be,

I like your idea of MTD 12 inversion, and therefore establishing MTD 1 as the first leg.
If the SLTD move is so strong, in your case MTD 1 itself could have been LTD 16 since it's within the time frame of LTD 16 arrival, but this is assuming that LTD 15 has arrived.
Cable has achieved 38.2 minimum retracement, it has still got some more space to go up, a lot more, how much?? I do not know. The limit is in the region of 50% retracement, but there is the question of the LTD15 and there is not too much time for it to be achieved. I am trading very carefully atm. The LTD16 might be a very fast and short lived down move, as cmellon has suggested. Cable is in a strong uptrend, and one who ignores it is likely to be on the wrong side of the market.
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