Delta Phenomenon

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Old Feb 10, 2018, 12:57pm   #273
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Confusing Bias with Certainty is dangerous!

One needs to know and remember that Delta Counts or Market Matrix is not a perfect tool and like other approaches it can provide a bias which can lead to a false sense of security especially when such a bias is confused with certainty in regards of the expected PA .
I have been following this approach for many years, when PA is contained to some degree within the timing and Price zones indicated by Fibs and waves calculation (please remember Delta is only concerned with Timing) one needs to recognise the danger of confusing BIAS with CERTAINTY that the PA has to obey the count/s. At other times when the counts are "challenging" it is easy to criticise it with "i know attitude" ... and so on.

The question is, if Delta is not a perfect tool, is it worth using it?

For the sake of argument, lets say that Delta is 50% "correct".
If 50% of trades are profitable, one should know what comes next...

Take note of another principle worth to remember, ...nothing works so well as broken patterns... at least for a time being , just after that, the PA obeys it again, after some loosing trades of course.

Loosing trades are unavoidable, but large looses are avoidable.
So it is important to keep the looses small! While not recommending any attachment to any given trade, a timely divorce from a loosing trade is likely to limit the damage.

If anything Delta draws attention to the higher TFs, like Daily and Weekly.

As there are not many followers on this thread to discuss and challenge different counts, not surprisingly I post occasionally only DAX counts, and that at some long intervals.

Delta is part of my overall way to look at the PA, and it sits well with other approaches pointed out in other threads.

Please do be careful not to confuse BIAS that Delta offers with CERTAINTY.

That is true to other approaches and Delta in that instant is not an exception.

Good weekend to all,


Last edited by 2be; Feb 10, 2018 at 8:12pm. Reason: added contant
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Old Today, 12:19pm   #274
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Joined Feb 2007
ITD 11 has formed below the bottom line of the "loudspeaker"
ITD1 is due on the 5th of March, might come late, one should know why.
Both ITD and MTD are in ITWs, each obeying their own particularities.

DAX and DOW have given good trading opportunities.

I find gaps on indices are providing a great perspective to trading, esp the play between the US indices and DAX. (please remember that what I call GAP on the futures of these indices is not a standard gap well defined on all other charts like the charts of commodities, shares, fx and other instruments including indices, futures of indices in that sense have too different types of gaps??? hope not too much).
That is why on indices I use open and close of "PIT TIME" of a given instrument still displaying futures price at these specific times.
For DOW, SP500 and FX I use that same setup, US Close, open, London Open and close, on FX I use these levels for orientation, esp US close padded on each side with 10 - 20 pips thus creating a "war zone".

Another thing to consider is the "different" impact of inflation on Indices, commodities , FX and bonds.
The direct influence of inflationary pressure makes it so challenging to construct the Delta counts, especially for indices and commodities, IMHO.
Inflation provides a different type of "stimulus" to FX pairs, where the ratio between the given two instruments deflating at that same time but at different speeds is very much in play (that is important in creation of the FX market). For Indices and commodities inflation "stimulus" is somewhat different (IMHO), as there is a deflating nominal currency that a given index is prised with, and other things that effect companies selected to create a particular index (all of that is so important in creating a PA in these market/s) . Commodities in that aspect are similar to indices, and shares.
Just a few thoughts to consider.
ATM and that moment has been with us for a LONG TIME, the only thing that "we" are able to control (to a degree) is the speed of DEBT growth. It looks that this global "control" is the best arrangement "we" are able to come up with.

It is a debt game, but game nevertheless, so take good profits while the game lasts!!!
Best wishes and a lot of positive numbers whatever thy mean!

Good trading to all,

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